Working Papers

Advisory: Working papers are circulated in the language of preparation only, with a summary in both official languages to make analytic work undertaken by the staff available to a wider readership. The papers have received only limited evaluation and do not reflect the views of the Department of Finance. Comments on the working papers are invited and may be sent to the author(s).

2005-07: Health Spending, Health Outcomes, and Per Capita Income in Canada: A Dynamic Analysis, by Kathleen Day and Julie Tousignant.

2005-06: Ranking Tax Distortions in Dynamic General Equilibrium Models: A Survey ¹, by Maximilian Baylor

2005-05: Machines and the Economics of Growth, by Aled ab Iorwerth.

2005-04: Methods of Evaluating University Research Around the World, by Aled ab Iorwerth.

2005-03: Canada’s Low Business R&D Intensity: the Role of Industry Composition, by Aled ab Iorwerth.

2005-02: Régimes de retraite d’employeur et incitations à la retraite anticipée au Canada, by Cristiana Pescarus and Maud Rivard.

2005-01: Demographic Changes and Structural Shifts Towards Services, Implications for Productivity Growth in Canada, by Jeanne Lafortune.

2004-10: Taxation and Economic Efficiency: Results from a Canadian CGE Model, by Maximilian Baylor and Louis Beauséjour.

2004-09: The Effect of Tuition Fees on Post-secondary Education in Canada in the late 1990s, by Maud Rivard and Mélanie Raymond.

2004-08: Retirement Behaviour and the CPP: A Simulation Model, by Allan Pollock and Timothy C. Sargent.

2004-07: Examining the Role of Consumer Confidence Within an IS Curve Framework, by Umar Faruqui and Nicolas Moreau.

2004-06: Les indices de taux de change réels effectifs provinciaux, by José Bourque.

2004-05: Is Investment Not Sensitive to its User Cost? The Macro Evidence Revisited by Aled ab Iorwerth and Jeff Danforth

2004-04: Machinery & Equipment Investment and Growth: Evidence from the Canadian Manufacturing Sector by Tahir A. Abdi

2004-03: Impact des variations de taux de change réel sur l’activité économique régionale au Canada by José Bourque and Carl Gaudreault

2004-02: A Survey of Taylor-Type Monetary Policy Rules by Nell Hamalainen

2004-01: Productivity and Wages: Measuring the Effect of Human Capital and Technology Use from Linked Employer-Employee Data by Julie Turcotte and Lori Whewell Rennison

2003-23: Equalization and the Incentives for Growth: An Empirical Investigation of the "Tax-Back" Effect, by Ann Cavlovic and Kathleen Day.

2003-22: Fiscal Redistribution in Canada, 1994-2000, by Dagmar Dyck.

2003-21: Federal Taxes and Transfers Across Canada: Impact on Families, by Marie-Anne Deussing.

2003-20: Estimating Structural Breaks in the Volatility of Canadian Output Growth, by Yanjun Liu and Bing-Sun Wong.

2003-19: The Value of Waiting and the Theory of Investment Under Uncertainty (With an Application to Kyoto), by Patrick Georges.

2003-18: Contrôle des émissions de GES à l’aide d’un système de permis échangeables avec allocation basée sur la production - Une analyse en équilibre général dynamique, by Yazid Dissou and Véronique Robichaud.

2003-17: The Vasicek and CIR Models and the Expectation Hypothesis of the Interest Rate Term Structure, by Patrick Georges.

2003-16: Borrowing Short- or Long-Term: Does the Government Really Face a Trade-off?, by Patrick Georges.

2003-15: Le prix du pétrole et l’activité économique régionale au Canada, by Carl Gaudreault.

2003-14: Le prix de l’énergie et l’activité économique au Canada, by Carl Gaudreault.

2003-13: Economic Analysis and Modelling Using Fisher Chain Data, by Yanjun Liu, Nell Hamalainen and Bing-Sun Wong.

2003-12: New Coincident, Leading and Recession Indexes for the Canadian Economy: An Application of the Stock and Watson Methodology, by Carl Gaudreault, Robert Lamy and Yanjun Liu.

2003-11: Empirical Evidence on Human Capital Externalities, by Jim Davies.

2003-10: Fiscal Planning in an Era of Economic Stability, by Doug Hostland.

2003-09: Bother thy neighbour? Intergovernmental Tax Interactions in the Canadian Federation, by Ann Cavlovic and Harriet Jackson.

2003-08: Forecasting Output Growth Over the Medium-Term, by Bernard Babineau and Nathanael Braun.

2003-07: Output Growth Forecasts in Real-Time, by Bernard Babineau and Nathanael Braun.

2003-06: Fiscal Policy and the Business Cycle: A New Approach to Identifying the Interaction, by Stephen Murchison and Janine Robbins.

2003-05: Government spending in Canada and the United States, by Suzanne Kennedy and Steven Gonzalez.

2003-04: Comparing the Long-term Fiscal Outlook for Canada and the United States Using Fiscal Gaps, by Suzanne Kennedy and Chris Matier.

2003-03: Public Finance Implications of Population Ageing: An Update, by Harriet Jackson and Chris Matier.

2003-02: Is Canada’s Retirement Income System Working, by Jeremy Lise.

2003-01: Is There Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in the Canadian Phillips Curve?, by Alan Stark and Timothy C. Sargent.

2002-11: Enrichments to Fiscal Commitments in the Presence of Uncertainty, by Patrick Georges and Nicolas Moreau.

2002-10: Prudence, Scope for Discretionary Measures and Policy Rules in Medium-Term Fiscal Planning, by Patrick Georges and Nicolas Moreau.

2002-09: NAOMI/US, A small-scale model of the U.S. economy, by Nicolas Vincent.

2002-08: Term Premium Determinants of Three-Month Forward Interest Rate, by Carlos Del Castillo and Jean-François Fillion.

2002-07: Understanding Personal Income Tax Revenue Fluctuations, by Phillip King and Ron McMorran.

2002-06: Forecasting a One Quarter Decline in Canadian Real GDP with Probit Models, by Carl Gaudreault et Robert Lamy.

2002-05: Forecasting a One Quarter Decline in U.S Real GDP with Probit Models, by Carl Gaudreault and Robert Lamy.

2002-04: La monnaie est-elle un bon indicateur de la production et de l’inflation ?, by Martin Charron.

2002-03: Impact économique régional d’un changement dans les conditions monétaires au Canada, by Carl Gaudreault.

2002-02: Monitoring Future Economic Growth in Canadian Provinces with New Leading Economic Indexes, by Jenness Cawthray, Carl Gaudreault and Robert Lamy.

2002-01: Les personnes âgées ont-elles perdu du terrain pendant la reprise économique ?, by Cristiana Pescarus and Maud Rivard.

2001-25: NAOMI – A New Quarterly Forecasting Model Part II: A Guide to Canadian NAOMI, by Stephen Murchison.

2001-24: Implementing the Kyoto Agreement Using Tradable Permits: The International Context for Canada, by Philip Bagnoli.

2001-23: Analysing Vertical Fiscal Imbalance in a Framework of Fiscal Sustainability, by Chris Matier, Lisa Wu and Harriet Jackson.

2001-22: « Risques et conséquences d’atteindre la borne inférieure du taux d’intérêt nominal de court terme », by Bernard Babineau, Claude Lavoie and Nicolas Moreau.

2001-21: The Implications of Parameter Uncertainty for Medium-term Fiscal Planning, by David Dupuis and Douglas Hostland.

2001-20: Monetary Policy and Medium-Term Fiscal Planning, by Douglas Hostland.

2001-19: NAOMI – A New Quarterly Forecasting Model - Part 1: Proposed Model Selection Strategy, by Stephen Murchison.

2001-18: The Contribution of Labour Markets, Demographics and Public Redistribution to Inequality: A Decomposition Analysis for Canada, 1986-1996, by Marcelin Joanis and Edgard Rodriguez.

2001-17: Oil Sands Tax Expenditures, by Ken Ketchum, Robert Lavigne and Reg Plummer.

2001-16: The Role of Fiscal Rules in Determining Fiscal Performance, by Suzanne Kennedy and Janine Robbins.

2001-15: An Empirical Search for a Canadian Credit Channet, by Joe Italiano.

2001-14: Specification of a Stochastic Simulation Model for the Analysis of Monetary and Fiscal Policy, by Doug Hostland.

2001-13: An Opportunistic Approach to Debt Reduction, by Patrick Georges.

2001-12: An Examination of Alternative Strategies for Reducing Public Debt in the Presence of Uncertainty, by Doug Hostland and Chris Matier.

2001-11: Does Under-Investment Contribute to the Canada-U.S. Productivity Gap?, by Edgard R. Rodriguez and Timothy C. Sargent.

2001-10: A Multi-Sector Multi-Country dynamic General Equilibrium Model With Imperfect Competition, by Claude Lavoie, Marcel Mérette and Mokhtar Souissi.

2001-09: The fair value of the U.S. stock market: A structural VECM approach, by Céline Gauthier.

2001-08: A Medium-Term Forecasting Equation for the Canada-U.S. Real Exchange Rate, by Martin Charron.

2001-07: "Constructing NEO: A Near-Term Employment Outlook", by Edda Claus.

2001-06: "Capacity Utilization and Inflation: Is Statistics Canada's Measure an Appropriate Indicator of Inflationary Pressures?", by Max Baylor.

2001-05: Monitoring Regional Economies In Canada With New High-Frequency Coincident Indexes, by Robert Lamy and Patrick Sabourin.

2001-04: Labour or Total Factor Productivity: Do We Need to Choose?, by Timothy C. Sargent and Edgard R. Rodriguez.

2001-03: Structural Unemployment and Technological Change in Canada, 1990–1999, by Timothy C. Sargent.

2001-02: Determinants of Retirement: Does Money Really Matter?, by Janice Compton.

2001-01 : The Role of Government Debt in a World of Incomplete Financial Markets, by Steven James and Philippe Karam.

2000-08: Public Finance Implications of Population Ageing, by Phillip King and Harriet Jackson.

2000-07: Neural Networks for Macroeconomic Forecasting: A Complementary Approach to Linear Regression Models, by Steven Gonzalez.

2000-06: Forecasting Employment Rates: A Cohort Approach, by
Marie-France Paquet, Timothy C. Sargent and Steven James.

2000-05: Measuring Human Capital in Canada, by Mireille Laroche and Marcel Mérette.

2000-04: L'écart à terme comme indicateur de l'activité économique : l'expérience des années 90, by Paul Delâge and Jean-François Fillion.

2000-03: Croissance endogène et vieillissement démographique : le cas d'une petite économie ouverte, by Maxime Fougère and Marcel Mérette.

2000-02: Modelling Federal Finances under Uncertainty, by Derek Hermanutz and Chris Matier.

2000-01: Liability Management Using Dynamic Portfolio Strategies, by Richard Black and Colin R. Telmer.

1999-03: An Econometric Examination of the Impact of Population Ageing on Personal Savings in Canada, by Maxime Fougère and Marcel Mérette.

1999-02: Analyzing and Forecasting Credit Ratings: Some Canadian Evidence, by Patrick Sabourin.

1999-01: Taxation and Economic Performance: A Cross-Country Comparison and Model Sensitivity Analysis, by Jing Xu.

1998-09: The BU Ratio: Prospect and Retrospect, by Timothy C. Sargent.

1998-08: Youth and the 1990s Labour Market, by Carloyn Wilkins.

1998-07: The Canadian Economic and Fiscal Model - 1996 Version: Part 2 - Empirical Specification and Statistical Assessment, by Jian-Guo Cao and Benoît Robidoux.

1998-06: The Canadian Economic and Fiscal Model - 1996 Version: Part 2 - Dynamic Forecasting and Simulation Properties, by Alain DeSerres, Benoît Robidoux,  Bing-Sun Wong.

1998-05: The Canadian Economic and Fiscal Model - 1996 Version: Part 1 - Model Structure, by Benoît Robidoux and Bing-Sun Wong.

1998-04: Population Ageing and the Current Account in Selected OEDC Countries, by Maxime Fougère and Marcel Mérette.

1998-03: Population Ageing and Economic Growth in Seven OECD Countries, by Maxime Fougère and Marcel Mérette.

1998-02: The Persistence of Low Income Spells in Canada, 1982-1993, by Mirelle Laroche .

1998-01: On the Concept and Dimensions of Human Capital in a Knowledge-Based Economy Context, by Mirelle Laroche, Marcel Mérette and G.C. Ruggeri.