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The following section examines factors that influence the probability that a seasonal worker will qualify for Employment Insurance (EI) benefits. Specifically, it concentrates on how the transition to an hour-based system affected individuals with different employment characteristics. Although the main focus is on the effects of the move to an hour-based system, this portion also considers the impact of various demographic characteristics on the likelihood of qualifying for EI benefits.

Table 5 displays the results of a probit model which estimates the probability that an individual will qualify for EI benefits. The sample is restricted to seasonal workers that experienced a Record of Employment (ROE) job separation in the period from 1995 to 1997, excluding quarters 3 and 4 of 1996. The first segment of the table examines how certain employment characteristics affect the probability of qualifying for EI benefits. The second section of the table analyzes the impact of EI reforms on seasonal workers earning less than $12,000. Finally, the last portion examines how demographic factors influence the probability of qualifying for EI benefits.

The first segment shows that employment characteristics such as the level of income, the number of hours worked, the number of weeks worked, and the regional unemployment rate are all important factors in determining the likelihood of qualifying. In particular, it shows that seasonal workers earning less than $12,000 are 7.7 percent less likely to qualify for EI benefits than those who earn over $12,000. Additionally, the table shows that seasonal workers that work less than 35 hours are at least 0.4 percent less likely to qualify for EI benefits than those who work 35 hours per week. Furthermore, each week that an individual works increases the likelihood of qualifying for EI benefits by 0.5 percent. Finally, individuals in high unemployment regions are more likely to qualify for EI benefits than seasonal workers residing in low unemployment regions. A percentage point increase in the regional unemployment rate corresponded with a 1.1 percent improvement in the probability of qualifying for EI benefits.

The second part of the table examines the impact of EI reform on seasonal workers earning less than $12,000. Overall, the table shows that seasonal workers earning less than $12,000 experienced an 18.6 percent decrease in the likelihood of qualifying for EI benefits after EI reforms. However, individuals that worked more weeks, averaged more hours per week or worked in high unemployment regions were more likely to qualify for EI benefits than other seasonal workers that earned less than $12,000. For instance, the probability of qualifying for EI benefits increased by 0.3 percent for each additional week worked or one hour increase in the average weekly hours worked (above 35 hours) after EI reform. Further, individuals working in high unemployment regions were at least 0.5 percent more likely to qualify for EI benefits after EI reform (a 1.0 percent difference in the unemployment rate corresponded to a 0.5 percent increased probability of qualifying for EI benefits).

Finally, the last section of the table considers some of the basic demographic factors that affect the probability of qualifying for EI benefits. In general, it supports much of the analysis provided in earlier sections. It shows that gender, region, family type, education, industry and the reason for the job separation are all important factors. The table shows that seasonal workers that were male, from regions besides Ontario, married, were less likely to have a post-secondary education, worked in the construction industry, or did not quit due to new employment were more likely to qualify for EI benefits. First of all, male seasonal workers are 3.4 percent more likely to qualify for EI benefits than female seasonal workers. Secondly, seasonal workers in Ontario are the least likely to qualify for EI benefits. In particular, seasonal workers in Atlantic Canada and Quebec are 5.6 and 7.4 percent more likely to qualify for EI benefits than seasonal workers in Ontario. Thirdly, single individuals were less likely to qualify for EI benefits than seasonal workers that are married. Single individuals with children were 6.1 percent less likely to qualify than married individuals without children while single individuals without children were 3.9 percent less likely. Fourthly, seasonal workers with post-secondary education were less likely to qualify for EI benefits than those who had less than high school. Fifthly, seasonal workers that work in the primary and construction industry are 2.8 and 3.7 percent more likely to qualify for EI benefits than those in the public service. Finally, seasonal workers that had job separations due to injury, illness or disability were the most likely to qualify for EI benefits while those who acquired a new job, retired or were dismissed were the least likely to qualify.