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This paper uses a definition of seasonality based on the COEP database¹. The COEP survey is based on individuals who have experienced a job separation. Each individual is asked to provide the characteristics that best describe their job. The response of individuals to this question is used to define seasonality in this paper. Based on the responses of roughly 32,000 individuals, over the 1995 to 1997 period, seasonal workers make up 15.5 per cent of job terminations.

These numbers simply will not be the same as those based on other databases or methodologies. In some cases, seasonal workers have been defined as those who work in industries that are considered seasonal. Another popular definition measures seasonality by examining the seasonal fluctuations in total employment.

Based on aggregate Labour Force Survey data, Marshall (1999) found that the total level of employment fluctuated, on a monthly basis, an average of 2.8 per cent from its expected mean due to seasonal fluctuations, in 1997. From this it can be claimed that 2.8 per cent of total employment is seasonal. It is important to note that this measure tends to ignore fluctuations at the more detailed levels. For example, seasonal employment at ski resorts may balance out seasonal job losses in the tourist industry that supports cottage owners.

This number is twice as high as the U.S. (Rydzewski et al. 1993). If rather than looking at the average value, the difference between the highest and lowest is examined, then the 2.8 per cent for Canada goes up to 6 per cent. This number is still considerably lower than the 15.5 per cent that comes from COEP.

In both the U.S. and Canada, the total economy-wide estimates of seasonality indicate that it is falling. The fall in Canada was from 3.4 per cent in 1976 to 2.8 per cent in 1997, or 18 per cent. However, this may be due to increases in the extent to which fluctuations in individual industries cancel each other out.

Footnotes

1	See Appendix A for a brief description of COEP.