The Theme
This map shows, for the populated area of each census division,
the projected change in the market share of compact cars in total
light-duty vehicle sales, from the model year 1990 to 2010 (the
base year and the target year of the Kyoto
Protocol), based on the business-as-usual scenario. The business-as-usual
case assumes that there are no major policy changes in the 1990
to 2010 period, which would affect vehicle preferences. This change
was derived based on the 1990 market share and the 2010 market share
projection. The 2010 market share projection is provided as an alternative
layer in this map.
Light-duty vehicles include all cars and light trucks. The light-duty
vehicle size classes, defined by the US Environmental Protection
Agency, were adopted for the vehicle classification. This classification
has 15 classes: six classes for automobiles, six classes for light
trucks, and three classes for station wagons. Among these 15 classes,
seven prominent classes account for the large majority of new light-duty
vehicle sales in each census division. The prominent classes are subcompact cars, compact cars, midsize cars, large cars, small vans,
small utility vehicles and large pickups. The remaining classes
include two seater cars, minicompacts, small pickups, large vans,
large utility vehicles, and three size classes of wagons.
Note that there are no data available for the Territories.
Relation to Climate Change
Because vehicles consume a substantial part of energy in Canada,
average vehicle fuel efficiency is an important indicator for greenhouse
gas emission and climate change policy making. The lower the fuel
efficiency, the higher the emission per vehicle, and, consequently,
the greater the contribution to greenhouse gases. Average light-duty
vehicle fuel efficiency, which measures miles travelled per gallon, is defined by averaging the tested fuel efficiency rating
for each vehicle's class, weighted by that class' market share in
each census division. Vehicle market share is therefore one of the
two determinants to vehicle fuel efficiency. Compact cars are relatively
fuel-efficient vehicles. For a particular area, the larger the compact
car share, the more fuel-efficient this area.
Map Interpretation
The projection shows that, between the model years 1990 and 2010,
the market share of compact cars in Canada would decrease from 27%
to 20%. More specifically, areas in the Atlantic Provinces and Quebec
that had larger market shares of compacts cars in 1990 would tend
to have larger decreases over this period. On the other hand, changes
in Saskatchewan and Manitoba would be marginal. There are very significant
proportional reductions of market share in some areas of Alberta
and British Columbia. It should be noted, however, that a large percentage decrease
in market share does not necessarily mean a large decrease in the
absolute number of the vehicles. As a result, the large proportional
changes in Alberta and British Columbia may not reflect very many vehicles.
According to market share models, the compact car share is positively
related to younger populations, and is negatively related to household
income. The significant decrease in this car type's market share
is largely due to the projected relative decrease in younger populations,
and the general increase in overall household income over the forecasting
period (Figures 1 and 2). While the relative savings of owning a
vehicle of this class compared to other classes is expected to increase
(Figure 3), the factors of population and income changes appear
to be prevailing for users' choice of this class of vehicles. The
small decrease in this market share in Saskatchewan and Manitoba
is primarily due to the projected decreases in farming as an occupation,
which would lead to a switch of demand from large pickup trucks
to cars.
[D] Click for larger version, 2 KB Figure 1. Projected Age Group of Younger and Older Populations
[D] Click for larger version, 1 KB Figure 2. Projected Household Average Income
[D] Click for larger version, 3 KB Figure 3. Projected Savings of Purchasing and Fuelling a Vehicle of a Certain Class Relative to the Weighted Average of all Light Vehicles for the Given Year
Data Source
A case study was conducted at the GeoAccess Division of Earth Sciences
Sector, Natural Resources Canada, in collaboration with Transportation
Energy Use Division of Energy Sector, Natural Resources Canada,
in order to showcase a spatial econometric approach to modelling
in support of policy making. The
projection for the market shares of light-duty vehicles by census
division was produced during this study. More details on the spatial
econometric approach are provided in Methodology
for Projection.
The verification of this projection of light-duty vehicle market
share has shown its likely validity for forecasting shifts in the
mix of light-duty vehicle sales for a given model year in a short
to medium term. This projection, however, is based on a series of
macroeconomic assumptions in Canada's Energy Outlook 1997, which
represent a best guess for the possible future if there will be
no additional policy interventions. Generally, it is suggested that
an econometric projection should serve as a trend forecast rather
than a numerical forecast.
An official projection for vehicle fuel efficiency and market shares at provincial and national levels can be found in Canada's Emissions Outlook: An Update 1999.
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