Change in Market Share of Large Cars: Model Year 1990 to 2010

The Theme

This map shows, for the populated area of each census division, the projected change in the market share of large cars in total light-duty vehicle sales, from the model year 1990 to 2010 (the base year and the target year of the Kyoto Protocol), based on the business-as-usual scenario. The business-as-usual case assumes that there are no major policy changes in the 1990 to 2010 period, which would affect vehicle preferences. This change was derived based on the 1990 market share and the 2010 market share projection. The 2010 market share projection is provided as an alternative layer in this map.

Light-duty vehicles include all cars and light trucks. The light-duty vehicle size classes, defined by the US Environmental Protection Agency, were adopted for the vehicle classification. This classification has 15 classes: six classes for automobiles, six classes for light trucks, and three classes for station wagons. Among these 15 classes, seven prominent classes account for the large majority of new light-duty vehicle sales in each census division. The prominent classes are subcompact cars, compact cars, midsize cars, large cars, small vans, small utility vehicles and large pickups. The remaining classes include two seater cars, minicompacts, small pickups, large vans, large utility vehicles, and three size classes of wagons.

Note that there are no data available for the Territories.

Relation to Climate Change

Because vehicles consume a substantial part of energy in Canada, average vehicle fuel efficiency is an important indicator for greenhouse gas emission and climate change policy making. The lower the fuel efficiency, the higher the emission per vehicle, and, consequently, the greater the contribution to greenhouse gases. Average new light duty vehicle fuel efficiency, which measures miles travelled per gallon, is defined by averaging the tested fuel efficiency rating for each vehicle's class, weighted by that class' market share in each census division. Vehicle market share is therefore one of the two determinants to vehicle fuel efficiency. Large cars are less fuel-efficient vehicles. A large market share of large cars, normally, makes the overall vehicles in a particular area less fuel-efficient.

Map Interpretation

The pattern of spatial variation, in relation to the 1990 interpretation, remains largely unchanged in the projected market share of large cars for 2010. However, the projected changes from 1990 to 2010 vary significantly across Canada. It appears that areas with a low large car share in 1990 would have a more significant increase in this share over this period, while areas with a high large car share in 1990 tend to have a decrease in this class share over the same period. This indicates that the spatial variation of market share of large cars would be less significant in 2010 than in 1990.

Overall, the increase in the market share of large cars would be insignificant. This is likely due to the increasing relative cost of purchasing and fuelling a car of this class, as shown in Figure 3. The market share models suggest that the large car share is positively correlated to the age of the population and level of household income, and negatively correlated to relative cost of owning a vehicle of this class (i.e. negative savings). The increased relative cost appears to be overwhelming to the projected growth in the other factors, as shown in Figures 2 and 3.

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Figure 1. Projected Age Group of Younger and Older Populations

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Figure 2. Projected Household Average Income

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Figure 3. Projected Savings of Purchasing and Fuelling a Vehicle of a Certain Class Relative to the Weighted Average of all Light Vehicles for the Given Year

Data Source

A case study was conducted at the GeoAccess Division of Earth Sciences Sector, Natural Resources Canada, in collaboration with Transportation Energy Use Division of Energy Sector, Natural Resources Canada, in order to showcase a spatial econometric approach to modelling in support of policy making. The projection for the market shares of light-duty vehicles by census division was produced during this study. More details on the spatial econometric approach are provided in Methodology for Projection.

The verification of this projection of light-duty vehicle market share has shown its likely validity for forecasting shifts in the mix of light-duty vehicle sales for a given model year in a short to medium term. This projection, however, is based on a series of macroeconomic assumptions in Canada's Energy Outlook 1997, which represent a best guess for the possible future if there will be no additional policy interventions. Generally, it is suggested that an econometric projection should serve as a trend forecast rather than a numerical forecast.

An official projection for vehicle fuel efficiency and market shares at provincial and national levels can be found in Canada's Emissions Outlook: An Update 1999.

• Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Efficiency: 1990 Model Map | Read about this map
• Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Projection: 2010 Model Map | Read about this map
• Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Improvement: Model Year 1990 to 2010 Map | Read about this map
• Market Share of Subcompact Cars: 1990 Model Map | Read about this map
• Change in Market Share of Subcompact Cars: Model Year 1990 to 2010 Map | Read about this map
• Market Share of Compact Cars: 1990 Model Map | Read about this map
• Change in Market Share of Compact Cars: Model Year 1990 to 2010 Map | Read about this map
• Market Share of Midsize Cars: 1990 Model Map | Read about this map
• Change in Market Share of Midsize Cars: Model Year 1990 to 2010 Map | Read about this map
• Market Share of Large Cars: 1990 Model Map | Read about this map
• Market Share of Small Vans: 1990 Model Map | Read about this map
• Change in Market Share of Small Vans: Model Year 1990 to 2010 Map | Read about this map
• Market Share of Small Utility Vehicles: 1990 Model Map | Read about this map
• Change in Market Share of Small Utility Vehicles: Model Year 1990 to 2010 Map | Read about this map

• Climate Change
• Human Activities Leading to Emissions
• References and Links