The Theme
This map shows, for the populated area of each census division,
the projected change in the market share of small utility vehicles
in total light-duty vehicle sales, from the model year 1990 to 2010
(the base year and the target year of the Kyoto
Protocol), based on the business-as-usual scenario. The business-as-usual
case assumes that there are no major policy changes in the 1990
to 2010 period, which would affect vehicle preferences. This change
was derived based on the 1990 market share and the 2010 market share
projection. The 2010 market share projection is provided as an alternative
layer in this map.
Light-duty vehicles include all cars and light trucks. The light-duty
vehicle size classes, defined by the US Environmental Protection
Agency, were adopted for the vehicle classification. This classification
has 15 classes: six classes for automobiles, six classes for light
trucks, and three classes for station wagons. Among these 15 classes,
seven prominent classes account for the large majority of new light-duty
vehicle sales in each census division. The prominent classes are subcompact cars, compact cars, midsize cars, large cars, small vans,
small utility vehicles and large pickups. The remaining classes
include two seater cars, minicompacts, small pickups, large vans,
large utility vehicles, and three size classes of wagons.
Note that there are no data available for the Territories.
Relation to Climate Change
Because vehicles consume a substantial part of energy in Canada,
average vehicle fuel efficiency is an important indicator for greenhouse
gas emission and climate change policy making. The lower the fuel
efficiency, the higher the emission per vehicle, and, consequently,
the greater the contribution to greenhouse gases. Average new light
duty vehicle fuel efficiency, which measures miles travelled per
gallon, is defined by averaging the tested fuel efficiency
rating for each vehicle's class, weighted by that class' market
share in each census division. Vehicle market share is therefore
one of the two determinants to vehicle fuel efficiency. Small utility
vehicles are among the least fuel-efficient light vehicles. Thus,
a high market share of this vehicle class would lower the average
fuel efficiency for a particular area.
Map Interpretation
Of all the new light vehicle classes, the market share of small
utility vehicles is expected to have the largest increase over the
forecasting period 1990 to 2010. There would be significant variations
in the rate of change in this market share across Canada. But the
pattern of spatial variations of the market share of this vehicle
class is expected to remain largely unchanged for the model year
2010. The user should note that this percentage measure for the
market share is relative to the base number of small utility vehicles
with the model year 1990 in a particular census division. A higher
percentage of increase for an area, therefore, does not
necessarily mean a higher increase in the absolute number of this
class of vehicles. The central region of Canada (The Prairies) as
opposed to Ontario in the map serves as a good example. While the
largest growth in the market share of small utility vehicles is
expected to occur in the central region in terms of market share,
most areas in Ontario where this market share was relatively large
in 1990, in fact, would have the largest increase in the absolute
number of small utility vehicles over the forecasting period.
The market share models suggest that the market share of small
utility vehicles has a strong positive correlation for a young to
a middle age group, and to household income. However, the relatively
high cost in both vehicle price and operation for this type of vehicle
limits its share. The expected decrease in a younger population
age group (Figure 1) over the forecasting period should lead to
a decrease in this vehicle class share. This effect appears to be
considerably prevailed by the other factors (Figures 2 and 3), especially
the projected increase in household income. For the Prairies where
the largest growth is expected, the projected decrease in farming
as an occupation in these areas is an additional factor. This factor
may lead to the switch of vehicle choices from large pick-up trucks
to small utility vehicles.
[D] Click for larger version, 2 KB Figure 1. Projected Age Group of Younger and Older Populations
[D] Click for larger version, 1 KB Figure 2. Projected Household Average Income
[D] Click for larger version, 3 KB Figure 3. Projected Savings of Purchasing and Fuelling a Vehicle of a Certain Class Relative to the Weighted Average of all Light Vehicles for the Given Year
Data Source
A case study was conducted at the GeoAccess Division of Earth Sciences
Sector, Natural Resources Canada, in collaboration with
Transportation Energy Use Division of Energy Sector, Natural Resources
Canada, in order to showcase a spatial econometric approach to modelling
in support of policy making. The
projection for the market shares of light-duty vehicles by census
division was produced during this study. More details on the spatial
econometric approach are provided in Methodology
for Projection.
The verification of this projection of light-duty vehicle market
share has shown its likely validity for forecasting shifts in the
mix of light-duty vehicle sales for a given model year in a short
to medium term. This projection, however, is based on a series of
macroeconomic assumptions in Canada's Energy Outlook 1997, which
represent a best guess for the possible future if there will be
no additional policy interventions. Generally, it is suggested that
an econometric projection should serve as a trend forecast rather
than a numerical forecast.
An official projection for vehicle fuel efficiency and market shares at provincial and national levels can be found in Canada's Emissions Outlook: An Update 1999.
|