Change in Market Share of Small Vans: Model Year 1990 to 2010

The Theme

This map shows, for the populated area of each census division, the projected change in the market share of small vans in total light-duty vehicle sales, from the model year 1990 to 2010 (the base year and the target year of the Kyoto Protocol), based on the business-as-usual scenario. The business-as-usual case assumes that there are no major policy changes in the 1990 to 2010 period, which would affect vehicle preferences. This change was derived based on the 1990 market share and the 2010 market share projection. The 2010 market share projection is provided as an alternative layer in this map.

Light-duty vehicles include all cars and light trucks. The light-duty vehicle size classes, defined by the US Environmental Protection Agency, were adopted for the vehicle classification. This classification has 15 classes: six classes for automobiles, six classes for light trucks, and three classes for station wagons. Among these 15 classes, seven prominent classes account for the large majority of new light-duty vehicle sales in each census division. The prominent classes are subcompact cars, compact cars, midsize cars, large cars, small vans, small utility vehicles and large pickups. The remaining classes include two seater cars, minicompacts, small pickups, large vans, large utility vehicles, and three size classes of wagons.

Note that there are no data available for the Territories.

Relation to Climate Change

Because vehicles consume a substantial part of energy in Canada, average vehicle fuel efficiency is an important indicator for greenhouse gas emission and climate change policy making. The lower the fuel efficiency, the higher the emission per vehicle, and, consequently, the greater the contribution to greenhouse gases. Average new light duty vehicle fuel efficiency, which measures miles travelled per gallon, is defined by averaging the tested fuel efficiency rating for each vehicle's class, weighted by that class' market share in each census division. Vehicle market share is therefore one of the two determinants to vehicle fuel efficiency. Small vans are normally less fuel-efficient than cars, but more efficient than other light trucks. Thus, the effect of a high market share of small vans on average vehicle fuel efficiency would depend on the market shares of the other vehicle classes. Generally, the more the passenger cars, the more negative the effect of a large market share of small vans on the average fuel efficiency; and the more trucks, the more positive this effect.

Map Interpretation

Over the forecasting period 1990 to 2010, there would be significant increases in the market share of small vans (about 16%) across Canada. The overall pattern of spatial variations would remain largely unchanged over this period. Vans are proportionately more common in Alberta, Saskatchewan and parts of Ontario, whereas they are less common in the Atlantic Provinces. In general, it appears that, proportionally, areas with higher market shares of this vehicle class with the model year 1990 tend to change less, and areas with lower shares tend to increase more. The fastest growth in this vehicle market share would take place in the Atlantic Provinces. This tendency of change suggests that the spatial variation of market share of small vans would be less significant for the model year 2010 than 1990. It should be noted, however, that the percentage measure of change is relative to the base number of 1990 small vans in a particular census division. A higher percentage of increase for an area, therefore, does not necessarily mean a higher increase in the absolute number of this class of vehicle for the 2010 model.

The market share models suggest that the market share of small vans is positively correlated to younger populations, household income and relative savings of purchasing and fuelling a vehicle of this class. The projected decrease in a younger population, as shown in Figure 1, has a negative effect on the market share of small vans. However, this effect would be overwhelmed by the significant increase in relative savings of owning a van (Figure 3), along with the increase in household income (Figure 2).

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Figure 1. Projected Age Group of Younger and Older Populations

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Figure 2. Projected Household Average Income

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Figure 3. Projected Savings of Purchasing and Fuelling a Vehicle of a Certain Class Relative to the Weighted Average of all Light Vehicles for the Given Year

Data Source

A case study was conducted at the GeoAccess Division of Earth Sciences Sector, Natural Resources Canada, in collaboration with Transportation Energy Use Division of Energy Sector, Natural Resources Canada, in order to showcase a spatial econometric approach to modelling in support of policy making. The projection for the market shares of light-duty vehicles by census division was produced during this study. More details on the spatial econometric approach are provided in Methodology for Projection.

The verification of this projection of light-duty vehicle market share has shown its likely validity for forecasting shifts in the mix of light-duty vehicle sales for a given model year in a short to medium term. This projection, however, is based on a series of macroeconomic assumptions in Canada's Energy Outlook 1997, which represent a best guess for the possible future if there will be no additional policy interventions. Generally, it is suggested that an econometric projection should serve as a trend forecast rather than a numerical forecast.

An official projection for vehicle fuel efficiency and market shares at provincial and national levels can be found in Canada's Emissions Outlook: An Update 1999.

• Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Efficiency: 1990 Model Map | Read about this map
• Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Projection: 2010 Model Map | Read about this map
• Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Improvement: Model Year 1990 to 2010 Map | Read about this map
• Market Share of Subcompact Cars: 1990 Model Map | Read about this map
• Change in Market Share of Subcompact Cars: Model Year 1990 to 2010 Map | Read about this map
• Market Share of Compact Cars: 1990 Model Map | Read about this map
• Change in Market Share of Compact Cars: Model Year 1990 to 2010 Map | Read about this map
• Market Share of Midsize Cars: 1990 Model Map | Read about this map
• Change in Market Share of Midsize Cars: Model Year 1990 to 2010 Map | Read about this map
• Market Share of Large Cars: 1990 Model Map | Read about this map
• Change in Market Share of Large Cars: Model Year 1990 to 2010 Map | Read about this map
• Market Share of Small Vans: 1990 Model Map | Read about this map
• Market Share of Small Utility Vehicles: 1990 Model Map | Read about this map
• Change in Market Share of Small Utility Vehicles: Model Year 1990 to 2010 Map | Read about this map

• Climate Change
• Human Activities Leading to Emissions
• References and Links