The Theme
This map shows, for the populated area of each census division,
the projected average fuel efficiency of light-duty vehicles, which
will have the model year 2010. The pie charts in this map, as appeared
by default, show the related provincial or regional projection,
for the market shares of various classes of light-duty vehicles,
which will have the model year 2010. The projections were produced
based on the business-as-usual assumption, which assumes that there
are no major policy changes in the 1990 to 2010 period that would affect
new light vehicle preferences. The years, 1990 and 2010, are the
base year and the target year, respectively, for greenhouse gas
reductions for the Kyoto
Protocol.
The average fuel efficiency of light-duty vehicles, which measures
miles traveled per gallon, was defined by averaging the tested
fuel efficiency rating for each vehicle's class, weighted by that
class' market share in each census division.
Light-duty vehicles include all cars and light trucks. The light-duty
vehicle size classes, defined by the US Environmental Protection
Agency, were adopted for the vehicle classification. This classification
has 15 classes: six classes for automobiles, six classes for light
trucks, and three classes for station wagons. Among these 15 classes,
seven prominent classes account for the large majority of new light-duty
vehicle sales in each census division. The prominent classes are subcompact cars, compact cars, midsize cars, large cars, small vans,
small utility vehicles and large pickups. The remaining classes
include two seater cars, minicompacts, small pickups, large vans,
large utility vehicles, and three size classes of wagons.
Note that there are no data available for the Territories.
Relation to Climate Change
Because vehicles consume a substantial part of energy in Canada,
average vehicle fuel efficiency is an important indicator for greenhouse
gas emission and climate change policy making. The lower the fuel
efficiency, the higher the emission per vehicle, and, consequently,
the greater the contribution to greenhouse gases. Vehicle market
share is one of the two major factors determining average vehicle
fuel efficiency (the other being the fuel efficiency of a vehicle
class per se). The map of average fuel efficiency, therefore, suggests
the mix of vehicle classes in a particular area.
Map Interpretation
The variations across Canada for the 2010 projection are very similar
to those of the 1990 average light vehicle fuel efficiency (which
is also mapped in this module). The areas with the highest average
fuel efficiency of the 2010 light-duty vehicles would still be urban
areas. Also, the highest average fuel efficiency would still be
in southern Quebec where people tend to use smaller cars.
In terms of the market shares of light-duty vehicles, a comparison
between the pie charts for the projected 2010 model and those for
the 1990 model (an alternative layer within this map) can reveal
the major trend of changes. Most significantly, the market share
of subcompact cars will be reduced to a great extent from 1990 to
2010, for all the provinces other than Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
Over the same period, small utility vehicles will see the largest
increases in the market share of new light-duty vehicles across
Canada.
Data Source
A case study was conducted at the GeoAccess Division of Earth Sciences
Sector, Natural Resources Canada, in collaboration with
Transportation Energy Use Division of Energy Sector, Natural Resources
Canada, in order to showcase a spatial econometric approach to modelling
in support of policy making. The
projection for the market shares of light-duty vehicles by census
division was produced during this study. More details on the spatial
econometric approach are provided in Methodology
for Projection.
The verification of this projection of light-duty vehicle market
share has shown its likely validity for forecasting shifts in the
mix of light-duty vehicle sales for a given model year in a short
to medium term. This projection, however, is based on a series of
macroeconomic assumptions in Canada's Energy Outlook 1997, which
represent a best guess for the possible future if there will be
no additional policy interventions. Generally, it is suggested that
an econometric projection should serve as a trend forecast rather
than a numerical forecast.
Also note that, while conducted within Natural Resources Canada, this projection does not represent an official Natural Resources Canada projection. An official projection for vehicle fuel efficiency and market shares at provincial and national levels can be found in Canada's Emissions Outlook: An Update 1999.
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