Government of Canada
98/76(c)

BACKGROUNDER

CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION FUND

SCIENCE, IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION

SUMMARY OF EARLY ACTION PROJECTS

The following initial activities will help us address our commitments under the Kyoto Protocol in climate science (research and monitoring), impacts and adaptation. Several involve nationally based workshops which will be central in developing the long term science and adaptation plan to address these commitments.

For further information on the Science Projects, please contact:

Rob Cross at Environment Canada: (819) 997-3840

For further information on the Impacts and Adaptation Projects please contact:

Pam Kertland at NRCan: (613) 943-0650

Science Projects

1. Tri-National Workshop on Extremes and Climate Change- Canadian Support and Participation

Canada, the U.S. and Mexico will hold a tri-national workshop to examine extreme weather events within North America in the context of climate variability and change. The overall goal of this workshop is to identify priority areas of research within the North American climate modeling research community in order to advance our understanding of extreme weather events during the next three, five and ten years. The target audiences for this workshop would be stakeholders (users of the information, resource managers, those at the science-policy interface, and weather forecasters), researchers (climate modeling, impacts and adaptation) and research managers.

The workshop is tentatively scheduled for March 1999.

Sponsors: Federal government departments; US: EPA, NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), GCRP (Global Change Research Program); Mexico- TBD; Insurance sector (TBD)

Budget: $130,000 CCAF contribution: $65,000

2. Support to Canadian Contributors to the IPCC Third Assessment Report

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has begun the process of producing its Third Assessment of climate change (TAR). The IPCC Assessments have been central to the climate change debate and have provided rich and valuable information to policy makers. The IPCC is also embarking on a Special Report on Land Use Change and Forests (LUCF). Several Canadian scientists will be selected to be lead authors and review editors. These responsibilities will require the scientists to dedicate a considerable amount of their time and to attend several meetings during the preparation of these Assessments. The Special Report on Sinks will be completed in mid-2000 and the TAR is expected to be completed by 2000/1. Resources will be used to help support the participation of these scientists (particularly those from universities and the private sector).

Sponsors: Federal government departments; Canadian university and private sector scientists

Budget: $200,000 CCAF contribution: $100,000

3. Preparing for Global Warming in Arctic Canada

This project will develop, for the new millennium, an action plan which lays out a unified effort to: ·

• observe in a timely manner the consequences of global warming on Canada's cryosphere; glaciers and ice caps, sea ice, lake ice, snow and frozen ground;
• identify, within a circumpolar context, short and long term research gaps that are inhibiting our abilities to lower uncertainties of climate change prediction, and thus assessing potential impacts in the Arctic;
• provide a scientific base for examining infrastructure and policy adaptations required to address impending social, economic and resource issues.

The action plan will be developed by means of a workshop involving Canadian experts in the natural resource sector and external invited participants from the US and Europe. Participants will be selected on the basis of broad experience and vision in Arctic climate research. Participants will discuss, broadly, what is known and what is not known, and will suggest new ideas based on a series of realities and scenarios being proposed by recent global observations of Arctic climate change.

Sponsors: Agriculture and Agri-Foods Canada, Environment Canada, Fisheries and Oceans, Health Canada, Natural Resources Canada, U of Victoria

Budget: $150,000 CCAF contribution: $85,000

4. Scientific Assessment of the Role of the Boreal Forests and Forestry in the Global Carbon Cycle

Given the importance and size of the circumpolar boreal forest, there is an urgent need to ensure that the scientific understanding of boreal forest carbon dynamics is taken into account in international decisions and policies. Decisions made at the international level about processes such as carbon storage (sequestration) in forests and the influence of forest practices on these processes require a clear understanding of the unique ecological conditions that prevail in boreal zones. Such conditions include the role of natural disturbances in forest dynamics and plantation management practices throughout the region. Funds will be used to support Canadian involvement in three international workshops (USA: Feb 99; Jasper, Alta: Apr 99 and Russia: Aug 99) and to host an international conference in Edmonton (Sep 99).

Sponsors: Natural Resources Canada ; IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis); NCEAS (National Centre for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis); NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration); Foothills Model Forest; IBFRA (International Boreal Forests Research Association)

Budget: $130,000 CCAF contribution: $30,000 (98/99)

5. Improving Estimates of Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Agricultural Ecosystems

A workshop, involving Canadian and international experts, will be held to better quantify nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural sources. The workshop will focus on testing available simulation models for estimating N2O emissions, methods for measuring N2O fluxes, quantifying soil carbon and nitrogen interactions, effects of choice of crops and cropping systems etc. on N2O emissions. The estimates from the various models will be presented at the workshop and compared with the results recently obtained using methods developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Sponsors: AAFRD (Alberta Agriculture, Food and Rural Development); Agriculture and Agri-foods Canada; Universities — Alberta, Saskatchewan, Cornell (US)

Budget: $85,000 CCAF contribution: $55,000

6. Preparation of a Canadian Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Plan

There are commitments related to climate monitoring in Article 10 of the Kyoto Protocol. The Canadian infrastructure for systematic climate monitoring has declined in recent years. Observing sites have been closed, particularly in northern regions and over the expanses of oceans off our shores. Canada's climate observing networks are also sparse by comparison with those of other nations at a similar stage of development. Unless plans are made now to address these deficiencies, Canada will be in danger of not being able to meet its Article 10 commitments. This project will fund a Canadian effort to prepare a national Plan, that will eventually contribute to the international Global Climate Observing System (GCOS).

The project will be done in conjunction with the Canadian Climate Program Board. An initial workshop will bring together key players in late-Fall. The Plan is expected to be completed by Summer 1999.

Sponsors: Federal government departments; Canadian Climate Program Board

Budget: $175,000 CCAF contribution: $100,000

7. Improving Estimates of Carbon Fluxes from Fire in Canadian Forests

Forest fires have a major influence on the carbon budget of Canada's forest. However, the published Canadian fire record prior to the 1970s is incomplete, throwing into question the validity of current carbon budget estimates. With carbon storage (sequestration) within Canada's forests being a major issue in global negotiations in Kyoto and beyond, it is imperative that we have a better understanding of trends in past forest fire activity in order to improve current carbon budget estimates with confidence. It is also critical that we establish solid linkages between climate and fire activity that can be used to project future Canadian forest disturbance regimes as climate changes. This knowledge is important both from a standpoint of understanding the terrestrial carbon budget and also permitting informed adaptation of forest management policy. Several activities will be supported, including update of the forest fire database; and analysis of fire chronologies for detectable evidence of climate change.

Sponsors: Natural Resources Canada; Environment Canada ; Provincial/Territorial Fire Centres; U of Toronto

Budget: $220,000 CCAF contribution: $30,000

8. Field Experiment to Document the Hydrologic Cycle of the Mackenzie Basin

The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) is an international activity to improve our understanding and prediction of the role played by the water cycle in the climate system. The Canadian objectives are:

• to understand and model with our Regional Climate Model the high latitude water and energy cycles that play crucial roles in the climate system; and
• to improve our ability to assess the changes to Canada's water resources that arise from climate variability and change.

Canadian efforts will initially focus on the Mackenzie River Basin, through the Mackenzie GEWEX Study (MAGS). River flows into the Arctic Ocean are believed to have a critical role in driving the climate. A critical part of MAGS focuses on a 14 month-long observational effort during 1998 and 1999. The outcome will be enhanced observations of key processes and a consistent dataset. Funding will be used to augment gaps in the 14 month measurement program.

Sponsors: Environment Canada NSERC (Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council); BC Hydro (tentative)

Budget: $1.4 Million CCAF contribution: $50,000

9. Risk Management Science Coordination Workshop

To better understand the potential impacts of global climate change for Canada, an expert Panel will develop an operational science-based risk management framework; this framework will aim to optimize management of the multi-disciplinary scientific activities on climate change in Canada. The Panel will identify the potential environmental, health, and social impacts of global climate change in Canada as fully as possible at this time. In addition, the Panel will develop recommendations for appropriate integration of scientific data and information in climate change mitigation strategies in anticipation of alternative plausible climate change scenarios. The Panel will propose an approach and mechanisms whereby inter-disciplinary risk management considerations will be used to contribute to the development of future climate change policies in a Canadian context. The Panel will convene at the University of Ottawa. The Panel will be predominantly Canadian, supplemented with a limited number of foreign experts in climate change.

Sponsors: Health Canada and other federal government departments; U of Ottawa

Budget: $75,000 CCAF contribution: $55,000

Impacts and Adaptation Projects

1. Canadian Vulnerabilities to Climate Change

Research on the impacts of climate change is often presented in peer-reviewed scientific literature. A bilingual colour atlas will present some of this information on Canadian vulnerabilities to climate change in an easy to understand map format. Topics include: salmon distribution, soil erosion, permafrost thaw and shoreline sensitivity to sea level rise. A second edition is planned to include new research published during the year.

Sponsors: Natural Resources Canada (Geological Survey of Canada with collaboration from Environment Canada, Agriculture and Agri-foods Canada, Natural Resources Canada (Canadian Forests Service ) and Department of Fisheries and Oceans.

Budget: $35,000 CCAF contribution: $30,000

2. Addressing Adaptation to Climate Change in Canada: a Workshop. Oct 16/98 Ottawa

Building on the On-line Forum "Critical Questions about Adaptation", this Ottawa workshop brought together expert stakeholders to help design the suite of activities required to answer the "Critical Questions" and thus develop adaptation options that will contribute to the development of a strategy for adaptation to climate change. This is an important priority setting activity for the impacts and adaptation component of the CCAF. Funding covered facility costs and support some travel to the workshop by non-governmental experts and stakeholders.

Sponsors: Natural Resources Canada , federal government departments, universities, Canadian citizens

Budget: $50,000 CCAF: $50,000

3. Publication of the Sectoral and Cross Cutting Volumes of the Canada Country Study on Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change.

The initial assessment phase of the Canada Country Study finished with a national workshop in November 1997. Since that time, these two volumes, part of the state-of-the-art assessment of current Canadian information on the impacts of climate change were completed and translated. The Sectoral volume focuses on the impacts of climate variability and change on various socio-economic sectors such as health, forestry, insurance while the Cross Cutting Issues volume focuses on impacts that cut across boundaries such as water resources. Money from the Action Fund will enable this critical information to be published in French and English on the web and as CD-ROMs.

Sponsors: Environment Canada

Budget: $84,000 CCAF contribution: $29,000