The Theme
This map shows, for the populated area of each census division,
the projected change in the market share of midsize cars in total
light-duty vehicle sales, from the model year 1990 to 2010 (the
base year and the target year of the Kyoto
Protocol), based on the business-as-usual scenario. The business-as-usual
case assumes that there are no major policy changes in the 1990
to 2010 period, which would affect vehicle preferences. This change
was derived based on the 1990 market share and the 2010 market share
projection. The 2010 market share projection is provided as an alternative
layer in this map.
Light-duty vehicles include all cars and light trucks. The light-duty
vehicle size classes, defined by the US Environmental Protection
Agency, were adopted for the vehicle classification. This classification
has 15 classes: six classes for automobiles, six classes for light
trucks, and three classes for station wagons. Among these 15 classes,
seven prominent classes account for the large majority of new light-duty
vehicle sales in each census division. The prominent classes are subcompact cars, compact cars, midsize cars, large cars, small vans,
small utility vehicles and large pickups. The remaining classes
include two seater cars, minicompacts, small pickups, large vans,
large utility vehicles, and three size classes of wagons.
Note that there are no data available for the Territories.
Relation to Climate Change
Because vehicles consume a substantial part of energy in Canada,
average vehicle fuel efficiency is an important indicator for greenhouse
gas emission and climate change policy making. The lower the fuel
efficiency, the higher the emission per vehicle, and, consequently,
the greater the contribution to greenhouse gases. Average new light
duty vehicle fuel efficiency, which measures miles travelled per
gallon, is defined by averaging the tested fuel efficiency
rating for each vehicle's class, weighted by that class' market
share in each census division. Vehicle market share is therefore
one of the two determinants to vehicle fuel efficiency. Midsize
cars are less fuel-efficient than subcompact and compacts cars.
In general, the higher market share the midsize cars (as compared
to the smaller cars) the less fuel-efficient the overall vehicles
for a particular area. .
Map Interpretation
It is projected that there would be no significant increase in
the market share of midsize cars over the 1990 to 2010 period for
Canada as a whole (16.5% in 1990 and 17.0% in 2010). This is contrary
to the first impression of the map, which suggests a decrease across
Canada. The reason is that, in general, this car type's market share
would increase significantly in most urban areas but decrease considerably
in rural areas. Rural areas are more visible on the map as statistical
divisions dominated by large cities are usually smaller in area
than predominantly rural divisions. As well, urban areas are far
more populous than rural areas with the result that changes in just
a few urban areas can strongly affect the national trend. The regional
trend across Canada is also not obvious: a check of summary data
indicates that Eastern Canada as a whole would have its market share
of this car type increase, while in Western Canada, it would decrease
slightly.
The market share model shows that the market share of midsize cars
is positively correlated to the size of older population groups,
to higher household income, and to the savings of owning a midsize
car as compared to other light-duty vehicles. The projected increase
in midsize cars in most urban areas is likely due to the expected
sharp increase in the older population and to a rise in household
income (Figures 1 and 2). These increases more than counteract the
projected decrease in the savings of purchasing a midsize car compared
to larger vehicles (Figure 3). In rural areas the projected decreases
in this market share appear to suggest that the purchasers are more
sensitive to the cost of purchasing and operating these relatively
large cars than are urban people.
[D] Click for larger version, 2 KB Figure 1. Projected Age Group of Younger and Older Populations
[D] Click for larger version, 1 KB Figure 2. Projected Household Average Income
[D] Click for larger version, 3 KB Figure 3. Projected Savings of Purchasing and Fuelling a Vehicle of a Certain Class Relative to the Weighted Average of all Light Vehicles for the Given Year
Data Source
A case study was conducted at the GeoAccess Division of Earth Sciences
Sector, Natural Resources Canada, in collaboration with Transportation
Energy Use Division of Energy Sector, Natural Resources Canada,
in order to showcase a spatial econometric approach to modelling
in support of policy making. The
projection for the market shares of light-duty vehicles by census
division was produced during this study. More details on the spatial
econometric approach are provided in Methodology
for Projection.
The verification of this projection of light-duty vehicle market
share has shown its likely validity for forecasting shifts in the
mix of light-duty vehicle sales for a given model year in a short
to medium term. This projection, however, is based on a series of
macroeconomic assumptions in Canada's Energy Outlook 1997, which
represent a best guess for the possible future if there will be
no additional policy interventions. Generally, it is suggested that
an econometric projection should serve as a trend forecast rather
than a numerical forecast.
An official projection for vehicle fuel efficiency and market shares at provincial and national levels can be found in Canada's Emissions Outlook: An Update 1999.
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