Change in Market Share of Subcompact Cars: Model Year 1990 to 2010

The Theme

This map shows, for the populated area of each census division, the projected change in the market share of subcompact cars in total light-duty vehicle sales, from the model year 1990 to 2010 (the base year and the target year of the Kyoto Protocol), based on the business-as-usual scenario. The business-as-usual case assumes that there are no major policy changes in the 1990 to 2010 period, which would affect vehicle preferences. This change was derived based on the 1990 market share and the 2010 market share projection. The 2010 market share projection is provided as an alternative layer in this map.

Light-duty vehicles include all cars and light trucks. The light-duty vehicle size classes, defined by the US Environmental Protection Agency, were adopted for the vehicle classification. This classification has 15 classes: six classes for automobiles, six classes for light trucks, and three classes for station wagons. Among these 15 classes, seven prominent classes account for the large majority of new light-duty vehicle sales in each census division. The prominent classes are subcompact cars, compact cars, midsize cars, large cars, small vans, small utility vehicles and large pickups. The remaining classes include two seater cars, minicompacts, small pickups, large vans, large utility vehicles, and three size classes of wagons.

Note that there are no data available for the Territories.

Relation to Climate Change

Because vehicles consume a substantial part of energy in Canada, average vehicle fuel efficiency is an important indicator for greenhouse gas emission and climate change policy making. The lower the fuel efficiency, the higher the emission per vehicle, and, consequently, the greater the contribution to greenhouse gases. Average new light duty vehicle fuel efficiency, which measures miles travelled per gallon, is defined by averaging the tested fuel efficiency rating for each vehicle's class, weighted by that class' market share in each census division. Vehicle market share is therefore one of the two determinants to vehicle fuel efficiency. Subcompact cars are normally the most fuel-efficient vehicles. For a particular area, the larger the subcompact car share, the more fuel-efficient the overall vehicles.

Map Interpretation

It is projected that the market share of subcompact cars would remain largely unchanged from the model year 1990 to that of 2010 for Canada as a whole (18.8% in 1990 and 18.2% in 2010). There would, however, be significant geographical variations in the change across Canada. Eastern Canada would have relatively small changes in market share, with some areas increasing and other areas decreasing. In Western Canada, a decrease in market share would be the dominant trend for Alberta and British Columbia, but there would be a dominant trend of increase for most areas of Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

According to market share models, subcompact car market share has a strong positive correlation to younger populations, as these small vehicles are the most affordable to buy and to operate. Conversely, subcompact market share has a strong negative correlation to household income. The expected relative decrease in younger populations and the increase in household income over the forecasting period (as shown in Figures 1 and 2) should lead to a decrease in subcompact market share.

However, this does not appear to be the case in approximately half of the statistical areas in Eastern Canada. One possible reason is that the expected increase in household income may lead to users purchasing a new vehicle at an earlier age, and for this purchase, a subcompact car would be the most affordable choice. This effect, together with the ongoing price advantage of subcompacts over this period (Figure 3) may counteract the expected trend of decrease over this period. For Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the expected significant increases are primarily due to another cause: a significant switch from large pick-up trucks to small passenger vehicles as a result of a projected reduction of farming as an occupation in this region.

[D]
Click for larger version, 2 KB
Figure 1. Projected Age Group of Younger and Older Populations

[D]
Click for larger version, 1 KB
Figure 2. Projected Household Average Income

[D]
Click for larger version, 3 KB
Figure 3. Projected Savings of Purchasing and Fuelling a Vehicle of a Certain Class Relative to the Weighted Average of all Light Vehicles for the Given Year

Data Source

A case study was conducted at the GeoAccess Division of Earth Sciences Sector, Natural Resources Canada, in collaboration with Transportation Energy Use Division of Energy Sector, Natural Resources Canada, in order to showcase a spatial econometric approach to modelling in support of policy making. The projection for the market shares of light-duty vehicles by census division was produced during this study. More details on the spatial econometric approach are provided in Methodology for Projection.

The verification of this projection of light-duty vehicle market share has shown its likely validity for forecasting shifts in the mix of light-duty vehicle sales for a given model year in a short to medium term. This projection, however, is based on a series of macroeconomic assumptions in Canada's Energy Outlook 1997, which represent a best guess for the possible future if there will be no additional policy interventions. Generally, it is suggested that an econometric projection should serve as a trend forecast rather than a numerical forecast.

An official projection for vehicle fuel efficiency and market shares at provincial and national levels can be found in Canada's Emissions Outlook: An Update 1999.

• Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Efficiency: 1990 Model Map | Read about this map
• Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Projection: 2010 Model Map | Read about this map
• Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Improvement: Model Year 1990 to 2010 Map | Read about this map
• Market Share of Subcompact Cars: 1990 Model Map | Read about this map
• Market Share of Compact Cars: 1990 Model Map | Read about this map
• Change in Market Share of Compact Cars: Model Year 1990 to 2010 Map | Read about this map
• Market Share of Midsize Cars: 1990 Model Map | Read about this map
• Change in Market Share of Midsize Cars: Model Year 1990 to 2010 Map | Read about this map
• Market Share of Large Cars: 1990 Model Map | Read about this map
• Change in Market Share of Large Cars: Model Year 1990 to 2010 Map | Read about this map
• Market Share of Small Vans: 1990 Model Map | Read about this map
• Change in Market Share of Small Vans: Model Year 1990 to 2010 Map | Read about this map
• Market Share of Small Utility Vehicles: 1990 Model Map | Read about this map
• Change in Market Share of Small Utility Vehicles: Model Year 1990 to 2010 Map | Read about this map

• Climate Change
• Human Activities Leading to Emissions
• References and Links