Provincial and Territorial Impacts

Regional Impacts – Quebec

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There is broad scientific consensus on the reality of climate change. It is happening, and it has serious implications – for our health, our economy, and our future.

Human activities, including the heavy use of fossil fuels for heating, transportation and electricity, release greenhouse gases that are accumulating and causing global warming. Average global temperatures are rising – the 20th century was the warmest the world has seen in 1,000 years, and the 1980s and 1990s were the warmest decades on record. As a northern country, Canada will feel the impacts of climate change more than most countries.

In coming decades, major temperature variations are expected in Quebec. In fact, recent models suggest that Quebec could warm by as much as 4 to 6°C by 2080. Such changes will be the largest and most rapid of the last 10,000 years and will have profound effects on our lives and the ecosystems that support us.

Health
More frequent and severe heat waves could lead to more deaths, and increase the risk of heat-stress related health problems, especially in the very young and the elderly. However, in the winter months, deaths from exposure to extreme cold and other winter hazards will be reduced.

Warmer daytime temperatures will likely increase the frequency and extent of "bad air days" in major centres. An increase in overnight temperatures during the summer will leave a large part of the population more uncomfortable.

Furthermore, respiratory disorders and allergy problems may worsen, as temperature and humidity rise. Infectious diseases may extend their range northward into Canada, and opportunities for environmental contamination by bacteria, viruses and parasites may increase as well.

Weather
In January 1998, half of the population of Quebec was left without power in the wake of an ice storm. The 1996 Saguenay flood caused $800 million in damages and resulted in 10 deaths. In the Montréal and Montérégie regions, over 20 events, including violent winds, torrential rains, flooding and hail, are reported each year. Although weather events such as these are natural phenomena, studies suggest that they could become more frequent as our climate changes.

The St. Lawrence
Low water levels are a particular concern for Montréal. From 1991 to 1998, a drop of just 30 centimetres in the water level resulted in a 15 percent decrease in tonnage handled by the port of Montréal. In the future, water levels are projected to drop more than one metre. Increased dredging may become necessary to allow ships to continue navigating the river. Lower water levels would also reduce the amount of quality water for drinking, destroy wetland habitat and limit leisure activities.

In the estuary and the gulf, reduced inflow of colder fresh water from Labrador, and an increase in sea levels will likely result from climate change. These changes could lead to increased coastal erosion to more sensitive waterfront property, loss of wildlife habitat and a change in the distribution of marine species.

Forests
In the long term, climate change is expected to push the tree line farther north, and gradually change the abundance and distribution of tree species. In the short term, climate change will present both challenges and opportunities to Quebec forests. While a warmer and more humid climate is expected to encourage forest growth, the reproduction of some species would be restricted. Increased precipitation may decrease the number of forest fires in the province, although a rise in the number of local and exotic forest pests (both insects and rodents) will likely offset any potential benefits. Furthermore, an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events would make forest ecosystems more vulnerable to pests and diseases.

Agriculture
Climate change will affect agriculture by accelerating the maturation rate of plants and lengthening the growing season. Some crops may benefit from the changes, while others will suffer. For example, production of fruits and vegetables in southern Quebec could expand northward, if the soil is suitable for cultivation. However, other crops may be vulnerable to new pests and diseases. The volume of maple syrup produced may also be affected by climate change, as syrup production is closely linked to freeze-thaw cycles.

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Taking Action

Given the potentially serious and long-term nature of the risks associated with these impacts, the only prudent course is to take action now to reduce the emissions that contribute to climate change. Analysis shows that the impact on Canadian jobs and economic growth associated with reducing greenhouse gas reductions can be kept modest and manageable relative to the strong growth expected over the next decade.

To give a sense of the possible order of magnitude of the impacts on industry, the estimated economic impact of implementing steps one and two in the Climate Change Plan for Canada to meet Canada's Kyoto commitments ranges from -0.4 percent to -1.6 percent of Canada's gross domestic product, dependent on various assumptions.

This is a modest impact relative to the strong economic growth expected over this period. Analysis shows job growth of 1.08 to almost 1.26 million jobs by 2010, compared to just over 1.32 million in a business as usual scenario. That means a delay in job creation of about 62,000 jobs across Canada in the year 2010. By comparison, the Canadian economy is currently creating new jobs at a rate of about 46,000 per month.

Estimates indicate that with the implementation of actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, Quebec's provincial gross domestic product in the year 2010 would grow to a level that would be about 0.24 percent less than in a business as usual scenario. Growth in new jobs would slow by approximately 0.5 percent, or a delay in job creation over the next eight years of about 16,900 new jobs. To put this into context, Quebec's economy created approximately 116,400 jobs over the last year.

These economic forecasts do not reflect the significant environmental and health benefits of addressing climate change. Taking action will provide broader benefits including cleaner air, reduced health costs and other environmental and social benefits for Canadians.

The impact on personal disposable income by 2010 would be approximately 0.16 percent less than business as usual. Relative to what they would otherwise be, electricity prices could drop by approximately 0.52 cents/KWh. Gasoline prices are expected to remain at their business-as-usual level in 2010.

An illustrative example of production increases for major industrial emitters in the province as a result of measures to reduce greenhouse gases (national averages) is as follows:

• aluminum would rise by 0.23 percent, or $4.73 per tonne
• pulp and paper would rise by 0.06 percent, about 59 cents per tonne
• steel – conventional would rise by 0.29 percent, about $2.10 per tonne
• steel – electric arc would rise by 0.08 percent, or 60 cents per tonne
• electricity – gas would rise by 0.04 cents per KWH or 0.60 percent

Canada's approach to reducing greenhouse gas emissions is designed to minimize costs and maximize opportunities for Canadian technology. It envisions an economy that is based on cleaner sources of energy, using leading edge technologies. The Plan proposes strategic investments in innovative climate change proposals and the creation of a Partnership Fund that will cost-share emission reductions in collaboration with provincial and territorial governments as well as municipalities, Aboriginal communities and the private sector.

By drawing on Canadian innovation, and by ensuring that different sectors of the economy, regions and consumers play a role in taking action on climate change, the impact is more manageable for all. Working together, Canada can position itself as a strong competitor as the world moves to a new, less carbon-intensive economy.

Quebec-based companies and communities are already showing leadership in meeting the challenges of climate change:

• Agropur Coopérative Agro-Alimentaire's cheddar cheese factory uses leading-edge technological innovations to foster energy efficiency in its wastewater treatment plant. This allows the plant to save $100,000 in annual energy costs, cuts sludge by 90 percent and generates about $50,000 in usable methane. The company recently installed another device that saves 30 percent on energy used for lagoon aeration.
• In Montreal, commuters are riding 155 "biodiesel" buses that are testing the use of alternative fuels. The $1.3-million BIOBUS project will help assess the environmental, economic and social advantages of introducing biodiesel in Canada and will help bring renewable fuels, such as biodiesel made from recycled sub-food-grade vegetable oil and animal fats, to the marketplace. The result could be a less polluting and less environmentally harmful fuel and new economic opportunities for farmers.
• In conjunction with Natural Resources Canada, the Cree community of Oujé-Bougoumou, developed an alternative community energy system that uses large volumes of wood waste produced by a local sawmill. Annual carbon dioxide emissions have been reduced by an estimated 2,300 tonnes per year.

Examples are taken from the public record.