Predicting Climate Change

Canada’s Climate Models

The average global concentration of carbon dioxide, the best-known greenhouse gas, has increased by approximately 30% during the industrial era. Methane, another of the greenhouse gases that contributes to global warming, has more than doubled. The weight of scientific evidence indicates that the global temperature will increase significantly over the 21st century, and increase at a pace that has not been seen for at least 10,000 years. Knowing how fast, where, and in which ways climate change will occur has become a preoccupation of citizens, scientists and governments alike.

scientists Developers of the Canadian General Circulation Models (GCMS) Norman McFarlane (left), Francis Zwiers and George Boer, with the Pacific Ocean in the background.

Global Climate Models are the only tools available to look into the future and predict how climate patterns and ocean circulation will respond to changes in greenhouse gases and related pollutants in the atmosphere. Meteorological Service of Canada MSC scientists are pioneers and world leaders in building and using global climate models.

The first climate models developed in MSC focussed on the atmospheric physics that determined global climate patterns. In the late 1980s and early 1990s atmospheric processes and ocean circulation were combined in the models to make them more realistic. Subsequently, MSC scientists developed a coupled atmosphere/ocean/ sea-ice model, which is considered to be among the best in the world.

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In 2001, Canada, as a whole, experienced its third warmest year, with the warmth spread fairly evenly over the whole country, as shown in this annual temperature anomaly map. Each isoline represents a half a degree Celsius in warming.

The 2001 Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) used the Canadian model along with three others in its key studies to determine whether the human effect on climate was detectable in global climate data. It was also one of two models used (the British Hadley Centre model was the other) in the recent National Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Climate Variability and Change in the U.S.

MSC climate scientists are now developing the next generation of climate models that will include the key biological and chemical processes that regulate the global carbon cycle – and thus, our climate. Understanding how the biosphere will respond to higher atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, and in turn, what feedbacks this will have on the atmosphere, is essential for formulating policy to respond to our Kyoto commitments.

Most climate models project that the change in climate is likely to be more pronounced in Polar Regions and to be greater in winter than in summer. Hence, Canada's fragile northern environment will be the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

The strength of Canada's climate science, the leadership provided by MSC, and the potential for significant impacts in this country, played a significant role in the decision to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. The MSC climate science team continues to advance the science of global climate modelling by tracking change in the climate system and helping to prepare Canadians and citizens of other countries to adapt to climate change.

“They (the MSC climate modelling team) do a stunning job and somehow they stay at the cutting edge.” Bob Corell past Administrator National Science Foundation USA

“The susceptibility of Canadian ecosystems, like the Arctic, to significant impacts from climatic change underscores the importance of maintaining excellence in Canadian climate science.”
Gordon McBean
Chair Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences

Meteorological Service of Canada - Environment Canada - Government of Canada

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