Climate Change and Canada’s Northern Communities

The MacKenzie Basin Impacts Study

It’s a big challenge to understand the impacts of climate change on weather and water resources. It’s an even bigger challenge to integrate that scientific knowledge with anticipated social, economic and cultural impacts to support wise policy decisions. The Mackenzie Basin Impacts Study (MBIS), led by the Meteorological Service of Canada MSC, serves as a model for integrating all the complex aspects of geophysical and socio-economic knowledge to strengthen policy and development decisions at the local level.

The MBIS began in 1990, and culminated with the publication of the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study by MSC in 1997. The purpose of the study was to look at the impacts of climate change on the lands, waters and communities in Canada’s north. The Mackenzie Basin was selected because it is an area that is expected to experience some of the largest climate change-related impacts in the world, and because the lifestyles of residents are closely linked to natural resources and the land. The people of this area have already seen a significant rise in temperature over the past 50 years.

cnayon A landslide in the Canadian Arctic due to decaying permafrost.

The MBIS was unique in that it brought scientists from many disciplines and stakeholders ranging from industry to aboriginal organizations together to participate in a comprehensive review of research. Participants focused on the significance of the various research findings to the people and communities of northern Canada. As the project unfolded, the level of local participation increased, as did the mutual understanding between scientists, the decision-makers and the local public.

Study results indicate that the most likely impacts of climate change on the lands, waters and communities in Canada’s north will be:

Lower minimum water levels in lakes and rivers.
Increased erosion from thawing permafrost, including more landslides.
Increased risks to forests from fires and pests.
Risks to aboriginal lifestyles.
Mixed impacts on access to wildlife.
Potential benefits to agriculture from a longer growing season if irrigation services were to be expanded.

Adaptation measures to reduce vulnerability may include:

Increased community-based monitoring.
Expanded use of co-management strategies.
Regional and local control of climate-sensitive resources.
Adoption of flexible strategies such as adjustable harvest quotas.

An integrated assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation requires a long-term partnership between scientists and stakeholders at all stages of the research process, specifically the need for enhanced institutional capacity on climate change. For example, the Northern Climate Exchange at Yukon College was established in 2000 to provide a regionally based structure to serve as an information source and to facilitate research collaboration in Northern Canada.

The results of the study raised awareness of climate change among policy and decision-makers around the world. The MBIS has been used as a model for subsequent integrated impacts studies in other countries, including the United States (Bering Sea Impact Study) and the European North (Barents Sea Impact Study). It is clear that potential effects on aboriginal lifestyles will be determined by development choices made by northern residents over the next few decades, as well as by the rate and magnitude of climate change effects.

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By 2080, winter temperatures in most of Canada could rise by 5 to 10 degrees or more.

“MBIS has been of significant help in the design and execution of the Barents Sea Impacts Study. In particular, we learned from MBIS the importance of direct contact with stakeholders and integration of study results, right from the start.”
Manfred A. Lange
Project Manager
Barents Sea Impacts Study

Meteorological Service of Canada - Environment Canada - Government of Canada

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