The Greenhouse Gas Emissions Outlook to 2020

Introduction

Canada's climate change policy has been developed against a view of likely future trends in greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). Natural Resources Canada and Environment Canada have developed projections of what these trends might be, based on extensive consultations with provinces and stakeholders.1 The projections cover emissions both from energy-use sources, about 90 percent of the total, and from non-energy sources.

The projections described are based on a set of reasonable assumptions concerning factors which influence future emissions trends. The estimates are most reliable in the short to medium term, given the difficulty of predicting specific changes in technology or investment over a long span of time.

It should also be noted that one important set of variables, namely current federal and provincial energy, environment and related policies, is held constant over the projection period. Maintenance of current policy is a deliberately imposed constraint employed both to examine the implications of the current policy mix and to provide a reference to evaluate the need for new or revised policies.

The projections also incorporate the impact of government policies intended to reduce GHG emissions, such as those included in the estimates of the impact of announced federal, provincial, and municipal initiatives focused on energy efficiency, renewable energy, and other measures to reduce GHG emissions.

These initiatives include all significant measures either directly related to, or reflecting the objectives of the National Action Program on Climate Change (NAPCC), in particular the commitments under the Voluntary Challenge and Registry.

1 A full discussion of the reference projection is to be found in Natural Resources Canada, Canada's Energy Outlook: 1996-2020, April 1997 and Government of Canada, Canada's Second National Report on Climate Change, May 1997.

Projections for Canada

Emissions grew by 9.5 per cent from 1990 to 1995. Following a slight dampening of this growth to 2000, attributable largely to the impact of initiatives, the trend in emissions is steadily upward. By 2010, emissions are projected to be 105 megatonnes (19 per cent) higher than in 1990. By 2020, they are projected to be 203 megatonnes (36 per cent) higher. The primary sources of these increases are population and economic growth, coupled with low energy prices and a shift to fossil fuels, particularly, natural gas, for electricity generation.

Methane emissions generally follow the overall upward trend. Nitrous oxide emissions, however, initially decline before growing again, owing to increased emissions from catalytic converters in automobiles and other vehicles. Other sources, principally chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) substitutes, also grow appreciably from a small base.

GHG Emissions

Projections by Sector

The largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in both absolute and growth terms is transportation. The increase is about equally accounted for by passenger vehicles and freight. The increase in emissions from the industrial sector is also significant, but the pace is somewhat slower. The commercial sector is projected to show a modest increase and the residential sector an absolute decrease in emissions.

These results are closely linked to the impact of energy efficiency regulations and programs on buildings, heating systems, and other energy-using equipment. It is worth noting that the projections for the residential, commercial and industrial sectors would be generally higher if the emissions from electricity were allocated to each sector.

For electricity generation, emissions are projected initially to decrease but then climb significantly as natural gas and, to a lesser extent, coal become the preferred fuel sources.

This projection was, however, developed prior to the August 13, 1997 decision by Ontario Hydro to “lay up” seven of its nuclear units. The need to offset this loss of supply by increased use of fossil fuel capacity will result in a 15-20 megatonne increase in emissions in 2000. At time of writing, Ontario Hydro is committed to restoring the nuclear units to operation over the next ten years. This would suggest a return to the reference emissions projection by 2010.

GHG by Sector

In the fossil fuel production sector, emissions grow rapidly from 1990 to 2000 but level off thereafter. This trend is related to the increasing effectiveness of initiatives to constrain carbon dioxide emissions and methane leakage by the oil and gas industry, which take place against a backdrop of significantly increased production and exports.

Non-energy emissions initially decline, but then grow appreciably. The major driver of this growth is the increasing use of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) substitutes for CFCs.

Projections by Province and Region

The chart below, portrays long-term emissions growth on a provincial basis. The information is organized to indicate, for each province, and the Atlantic provinces as a group, the percentage growth in emissions in 2000, 2010, and 2020, relative to the 1990 level.

GHG Emissions by Province

Several points are worth noting:

In the short term, to 2000, emissions growth is greater than the national average in Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia. These increases are associated with the resource boom in the west and, in the case of British Columbia, population increases.

In the longer term, however, growth in emissions is more evenly distributed across provinces, with Ontario and British Columbia recording above average increases. For Ontario, the chief reasons for the increases are the greater use of natural gas and coal for electricity generation. The chart does not reflect the decision by Ontario Hydro to lay-up some of its nuclear units.

The results for Alberta and, to a lesser extent, Saskatchewan suggest a deceleration in the growth of emissions after 2000. This is largely the result of the increasing effectiveness of the oil and gas industry initiatives to constrain emissions.

While Quebec and the Atlantic region have minimal emissions growth to 2000, their results thereafter are more in line with national trends. Within the Atlantic region, the growth in emissions is above the regional average in New Brunswick and Newfoundland, reflecting, for the latter in particular, their strong resource-based development.