Assessment of Climate Change on the Agricultural Resources of the Canadian Prairies

Summary

The Canadian Global Circulation Model (CGCM1), a time-period scenario for the years 2040-69, predicts increased temperature and precipitation for the Canadian Prairies. The study, authored by Wade Nyirfa and Bill Harron of the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration (PFRA), suggests these changes will result in warmer, but more arid conditions over much of the present agricultural area since increased evapotranspiration will not be offset by the predicted increase in precipitation. This will require a shift in current cropping practices, particularly for spring-seeded grains and oilseeds. More favorable growing conditions along the agricultural fringe will encourage the expansion of cultivated land, particularly in Northwestern Alberta.

The study compares the 1961-1990 climate station normals and the 2040-2069 CGCM1 predictions for temperature, precipitation, moisture deficit, and effective growing degreedays. The climatic parameters derived from this process were inputted into the Land Suitability Rating System (LSRS). This program, based on the Soil Landscapes of Canada (SLC), was used to determine changes in climate and land suitability rating between the two time periods. A process was developed that converted the coarse scale data of the climate change scenario into the finer scale of the SLC format, allowing for the analysis of climate change impact on agricultural land resources.

The process and results from this study can lead to further analysis and discussion of potential impacts of climate change on Prairie agriculture. Future work should include verifying the study results by using other recognized climate change scenarios.