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Between 1960 and 2000, the demand for ecosystem services grew significantly as world population doubled to 6 billion people and the global economy increased more than six fold. In response, food production increased by roughly two-and-a-half times, water use and installed hydropower capacity doubled, wood harvests for pulp and paper production tripled, and timber production increased by more than half.
Degrading Ecosystem Services
Ecosystem services have also been degraded over the past 50 years. Capture fisheries, water supply, waste treatment and detoxification, water purification, and natural hazard protection have all suffered. The spiritual and aesthetic aspects of nature, as well as the regulation of air quality, regional and local climate, and erosion have all been compromised.
Two ecosystem services – freshwater and fisheries capture – are identified as being well beyond levels that can be sustained at current demands, much less future ones. In the case of the fisheries, at least one quarter of important commercial fish stocks are over-harvested. And Canadians are not immune: when the Newfoundland cod fishery collapsed in the early 1990s, tens of thousands of jobs were lost and at least $2 billion was spent on income support and retraining.
Everyone is negatively impacted by degrading ecosystem services, but the burden has been disproportionately placed on the world's poorest people and is sometimes the principal factor causing poverty. Worldwide, approximately 1.7 million people die annually as a result of inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene. Fish, an inexpensive source of protein in developing countries, are increasingly scarce. And, millions of people, especially in drylands, are suffering the consequences of desertification.
2050 and Beyond
The degradation of ecosystem services could grow significantly worse during the first half of this century. More land conversion, mainly in low-income countries and dryland regions, and dramatic growth in demand for food crops and water are expected by 2050.
Pollution, particularly nutrient loading-nitrogen and phosphorus in land and water-is predicted to increase. Nitrogen flows, already too high, may increase by two thirds according to some estimates, accelerating damage to freshwater and coastal marine ecosystems and terrestrial ecosystems.
Overexploitation of resources will likely persist and fisheries will likely be especially hard hit. In much of the world, the advent of industrial fishing has already brought on a 90 per cent reduction in commercial fish biomass and there doesn't appear to be any end in sight to this unsustainable harvesting. At the same time, the spread of invasive alien species and disease organisms is predicted to continue, threatening native species and many ecosystem services.
By 2100, climate change may be the dominant factor in biodiversity loss and changes to ecosystem services globally. Both increased incidence of floods and droughts, and rising sea levels are expected as global mean surface temperatures rise 2.0-6.4 °C above pre-industrial levels.
A New Future
There is no quick fix to reversing the degradation of ecosystems while meeting the world's increasing demands for services. But, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment affirms that many steps can be taken to improve the state of the Earth's ecosystem services. Key steps include:
- Changing the economic background to decision-making to ensure that the value of all ecosystem services are taken into account when making decisions;
- Improving policy, planning and management to allow for integrated decision-making between institutions, participation from marginalized groups and additional protection for fragile ecosystems;
- Creating a new vision for the future through education and fundamental social change, and;
- Developing and using environment-friendly technologies to both restore ecosystems and improve industrial efficiency.
The challenge of environmental sustainability requires a new vision of the future. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment offers a roadmap for moving forward that the Government of Canada and Canadian citizens can use to move towards the conservation and sustainable use of ecosystems.
For synthesis reports on the overall assessment, health, biodiversity, wetlands and desertification, as well as a publication for Business and Industry, visit the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment web site.
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