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Table I. Study Characteristics.
Sample |
Total Sample Size |
Age (SD) |
Static-99 (SD) |
Child Molesters (%) |
Average Years of Follow-up |
Sexual Recidivism Rate |
Recidivism Criteria |
Canadian Federal - 1991 to 1994 releases |
229 |
36.8 (11.2) |
2.9 (1.9) |
42 |
2 |
5.7 |
Charges |
Millbrook, Ontario |
186 |
33.3 (9.8) |
3.1 (2.1) |
100 |
23 |
35.5 |
Convictions |
Institut Philippe Pinel |
343 |
36.2 (10.9) |
2.9 (1.7) |
70 |
4 |
14.9 |
Convictions |
HM Prison Service (UK) |
521 |
35.6 (12.3) |
3.0 (2.0) |
52 |
16 |
25.0 |
Convictions |
Washington State SSOSA |
490 |
36.0 (12.5) |
1.3 (1.3) |
89 |
5 |
6.3 |
Charges |
Manitoba Probation |
202 |
35.5 (12.5) |
2.7 (1.8) |
56 |
2 |
9.9 |
Charges |
Canadian Federal - Quebec |
487 |
42.9 (12.0) |
2.7 (2.0) |
52 |
5 |
6.8 |
Charges |
Dynamic Supervision Project |
976 |
40.0 (13.4) |
2.8 (1.9) |
53 |
2 |
3.0 |
Charges |
Total |
3,425 |
37.9 (12.6) |
2.6 (1.9) |
63 |
7 |
10.9 |
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Table III. Five year sexual recidivism rates divided by age and Static-99 risk categories.
Static-99 Category |
Age at Release |
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18 - 39.9 |
40 - 49.9 |
50 - 59.9 |
60 and older |
All ages |
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n |
recid.±95%CI | n |
recid.±95%CI | n |
recid.±95%CI | n |
recid.±95%CI | n |
recid.±95%CI |
Low |
503 |
6.7 ± 2.6 | 321 |
5.5 ± 2.9 | 159 |
2.5 ± 2.8 | 112 |
0.0 ± 0.0 | 1095 |
5.2 ± 1.6 |
Moderate-Low |
865 |
10.3 ± 2.5 | 260 |
6.7 ± 4.3 | 126 |
4.3 ± 4.4 | 56 |
3.0 ± 5.7 | 1307 |
8.7 ± 1.9 |
Moderate-High |
520 |
24.5 ± 4.6 | 124 |
13.8 ± 8.0 | 63 |
19.4 ± 16.1 | 25 |
4.8 ± 9.1 | 732 |
21.4 ± 3.8 |
High |
177 |
37.0 ± 9.1 | 71 |
25.7 ± 13.2 | 32 |
24.3 ± 22.6 | 11 |
9.1 ± 17.0 | 291 |
31.6 ± 6.9 |
All Levels |
2065 |
14.8 ± 1.9 | 776 |
8.8 ± 2.5 | 380 |
7.5 ± 3.8 | 204 |
2.0 ± 2.3 | 3425 |
12.0 ± 1.4 |
ROC AUC (95% CI) |
.68 |
(.65 – .72) | .66 |
(.58 – .73) | .76 |
(.66 – .85) | .81 |
(.68 – .95) | .70 |
(.67 – .72) |
Note : "recid.±95%CI" is the sexual recidivism rate calculated through survival analysis with its 95% confidence interval. "n" is the sample size starting the interval. ROC AUC is the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.
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