Pity the tourist operation in Canada that relies on U.S. visitors for the bulk of its business. Americans just aren't popping over the border like they used to. Recent figures show that the number of same-day car trips by Americans to Canada is at an all-time low — barely half what they were in 2000. Figures from August 2006 show that same-day visits are down 15 per cent from a year earlier.

Longer-term visits north of the border have also declined steadily. In July 2006, overnight car travel by Americans to Canada fell to its lowest in nine years.

Foreign visitors spend about $17 billion a year in Canada, most of that by Americans. The United States is by far Canada's largest international travel market. And that market has been shrinking.

As of 2004, Canada was the destination of choice for only 28 per cent of outbound overnight U.S. travellers. That's down four percentage points from 1999.

Plainly speaking, we've been losing ground to Mexico and the Caribbean. Only U.S. travel to Europe has fallen more. A study done for the Canadian Tourism Commission in early 2006 estimates that the drop in U.S. visitors has cost Canada $1.2 billion since 2002.

These are worrisome trends for Canada, which counts on tourism to provide almost 500,000 direct jobs in the travel, transportation, hotel, recreation, and food and beverage industries. More than a million more jobs are indirectly tourism-related.

What's keeping them away?

So what's going on? Statistics Canada has advanced several reasons to explain the growing absence of U.S. license plates from Canadian parking lots. The main ones include:

• The high Canadian dollar: Canada just isn't the bargain it was when the loonie was worth only 62 cents US in early 2002. Then, a U.S. greenback was worth $1.61 Canadian. Almost five years later, that premium had shrunk to $1.12.
• The high cost of gasoline: Gasoline prices have soared in the past few years. In the spring of 1999, a U.S. motorist was paying about 90 cents for each U.S. gallon. By the spring of 2004, that motorist was paying $2. By the summer of 2006, the gas bill had reached $3 for each gallon.
• Increased border security: In the immediate aftermath of 9/11, Americans stayed home. But Canada managed to pick up some market share as a road trip to Canada was perceived to be a safer option that flying to Europe. But that boomlet lasted only until 2002. After that, Americans became increasingly reluctant to head north. Tougher border security measures put in place in recent years have led to often long lines at border crossings and the perception of big delays and hassles has been getting a lot of play in U.S. border states.

Not promoting Canada to foreign tourists?

Other reasons for the decline have been advanced. The 2003 SARS outbreak garnered widespread media coverage in the United States and led to many cancelled conventions. Visits to the hardest-hit city, Toronto, fell noticeably that year.

Some suggest that there's a lot of confusion in the American public over when new border documentation rules will kick in and how severe they will be (passports or new "smart cards"). Only 26 per cent of Americans have a passport; the Canadian figure is 40 per cent.

But others suggest that some of the blame lies closer to home.

The Tourism Industry Association of Canada says we aren't doing nearly enough to promote Canada as a tourist destination. And the budget of the Canadian Tourism Commission has been cut at a time when many other countries have been rapidly increasing their marketing efforts aimed at foreign tourists.

The commission estimates that each dollar spent on sales and marketing in North America produces $10 in tourism revenue.

Tory cuts 'rolling up the welcome mat'

A Conservative government decision in September 2006 to eliminate the GST/HST Visitors Rebate Program has attracted a new round of critical comments from the tourist industry.

"Canada is essentially rolling up the welcome mat," says the Tourism Industry Association. It estimates the value of the program at $100 million a year.

"Now is not the time to be taking away incentives to visit Canada," says Jonview Canada, a major tour operator.

Critics say that Canada will be fighting the battle for international leisure, business and convention travel with two hands tied behind its back.

In early 2006, the Canadian Tourism Commission published the results of a study it commissioned to find out exactly why American travel to Canada was falling. The findings were revealing. It found that one of main reasons given by Americans for not choosing Canada was the belief that there were simply more interesting or exotic places to go.

The challenge is to persuade Americans to consider Canada as a destination when there are so many other countries clamouring for attention.