By Tony Moss, NFL Editor
(Sports Network) - Who are the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos? The NFL
world is about to find out, as two of the league's elite teams of the moment
battle at Invesco Field at Mile High on Sunday.
Are the undefeated Colts really the Super Bowl contender that some believe
them to be, or has their 6-0 start been done with mirrors? Is a run defense
that is allowing a league-worst 5.2 yards per carry cause for concern? Have
narrow, last-minute victories over the mediocre Jets and Titans exposed
Indianapolis' deficiencies?
A matchup against Denver, a well-coached 5-1 club with a powerful running
game, should answer many of those questions.
Though on the other side of the field, doubts persist about the Broncos'
abilities as well.
Is Denver, which is giving up a league-low 7.3 points per game and has
surrendered just two touchdowns in six games, simply feasting on teams with
struggling offenses? Will the Broncos, who have yet to score more than 17
points in a game and have a grand total of seven touchdowns in 2006 to date,
ever display a dynamic offense to match their stifling defense? Is quarterback
Jake Plummer ever going to snap out of his funk?
A crowd of 76,000-plus, one that wishes to see its team maintain its current
one-game lead over the San Diego Chargers in the AFC West, will be waiting
expectantly to have those interrogatives delivered in a positive way on
Sunday.
SERIES HISTORY
Denver holds an 11-4 edge in the all-time regular season series with
Indianapolis, including a 33-14 home victory in Week 17 of the 2003 season.
The Colts had won the previous meeting played between the clubs in Denver,
earning a 23-20 overtime victory there in 2002.
The Colts have won the only two postseason meetings between the teams, routing
Denver at the RCA Dome in AFC First-Round Playoff matchups in 2003 (41-10) and
2004 (49-24).
Indianapolis head coach Tony Dungy is 4-3 in his career against the Broncos,
including the two playoff wins. Denver's Mike Shanahan is 2-4 all-time against
Indianapolis, including the postseason losses, and is 3-4 in his career
against Dungy.
COLTS OFFENSE VS. BRONCOS DEFENSE
Colts quarterback Peyton Manning (1620 passing yards, 12 TD, 2 INT) comes off
his finest performance of the season to date, which is saying something for a
player that already had a 400-yard day on his 2006 resume'. In last week's
36-22 win over the Redskins, Manning completed 25-of-35 passes for 342 yards
and four touchdowns without an interception or a sack absorbed, finishing the
afternoon with a 140.4 passer rating. The outing allowed the perennial Pro
Bowler to assume the lead in NFL passer rating (103.2). Top targets Marvin
Harrison (39 receptions, 3 TD) and Reggie Wayne (28 receptions, 2 TD) continue
to thrive with Manning as their leader. Harrison had seven catches for 73
yards and two scores last Sunday, while Wayne chipped in with seven grabs, 122
yards, and a TD of his own. Also getting into the act were tight ends Dallas
Clark (13 receptions, 3 TD) and Ben Utecht (10 receptions), who combined for
six catches and 93 yards. Clark also scored his third touchdown of the season.
Manning has been sacked just seven times through Indy's first six games.
The lack of a consistent pass rusher had long been a problem in Denver, but
the emergence of rookie Elvis Dumervil may have finally brought an answer for
that shortcoming. The fourth-round draft pick out of Louisville increased his
team-leading sack total to five last week, bringing down Charlie Frye three
times and also recovering a fumble. The five sacks are already more than any
Denver player had in all of 2005. Ends Ebenezer Ekuban and Patrick Chukwurah
have combined for another five sacks on the year. The secondary has five
interceptions to its credit in 2006, including a team-leading three for
perennial Pro Bowl cornerback Champ Bailey (31 tackles). Bailey had the team's
only INT off Frye last week, and fellow corner Darrent Williams (34 tackles)
ranked among Denver leaders in tackles with six. The Broncos rank eighth in
NFL passing defense (181.7 yards per game).
Though Manning's presence will ensure (perhaps justifiably) that they'll never
get a lion's share of the credit, Indianapolis running backs Joseph Addai (354
rushing yards, 19 receptions, 2 TD) and Dominic Rhodes (299 rushing yards, 3
TD, 11 receptions) have contributed to an attack that quietly ranks a healthy
16th in the league in rushing offense (111.2 yards per game). Addai has been
the more productive of the two backs, averaging 5.1 yards per carry and going
over 100 total yards on two occasions already this season. Rhodes has been
asked to get the tougher yards between the tackles, and is averaging just 3.3
yards on 92 rush attempts in 2006. The duo combined for 111 ground yards on 24
carries against the Redskins last Sunday.
Seeking to prevent their first rushing touchdown of the season will be a
Denver run-stopping unit that ranks seventh in the NFL (90.3 yards per game)
as Week 8 begins. The assignment-conscious linebacking corps of Al Wilson (43
tackles) in the middle and D.J. Williams (31 tackles) and Ian Gold (39
tackles) on the outside has been rock-solid all season, and tackles Michael
Myers (22 tackles, 2 sacks) and Gerard Warren (16 tackles) have been active as
well. Warren (sprained right big toe) left the Cleveland game and could be out
for Sunday, meaning Demetrin Veal (13 tackles, 1 sack) could be called upon to
start. The Broncos held former teammate Reuben Droughns to just 33 yards on 12
carries last week, with his longest run going for seven yards.
BRONCOS OFFENSE VS. COLTS DEFENSE
There have been whispers around Broncos camp that the next two games, against
Indianapolis and Pittsburgh, will represent a final audition of sorts for
struggling Denver quarterback Jake Plummer (984 passing yards, 4 TD, 7 INT).
Plummer carries a weak 60.4 passer rating into Week 8, is averaging a little
over one touchdown drive led per game, and is surely operating on borrowed
time as it is with first-round phenom Jay Cutler waiting in the wings. If
Plummer can't move the team with greater frequency over the next two games, it
could become Cutler's show. Looking to be involved in the passing game on
Sunday will be wideouts Javon Walker (29 receptions, 2 TD) and Rod Smith (22
receptions, 1 TD), who have been Plummer's only regular targets this season.
Walker caught nine balls for 107 yards in Cleveland last week. The Denver line
has allowed just nine sacks on the year, though the season-ending knee injury
suffered by left tackle Matt Lepsis last week could put the effectiveness of
the trench group in peril. Expected to take Lepsis' place is Erik Pears, a
first-year player out of Colorado State.
There is at least mild concern in Indianapolis over the work of the Colts'
once-vaunted pass rush, which enters Week 8 tied for the third-fewest sacks in
the league (10). Part of the problem has been the unavailability of Pro Bowl
defensive end Dwight Freeney, who has been limited by buttocks and shoulder
injuries and has yet to post his first sack of 2006. Fellow end and running
mate Robert Mathis (29 tackles, 4.5 sacks) has held up his end of the bargain,
though he too has gone sackless in his last two games. Despite these events,
Indianapolis ranks third in NFL passing defense (167.3 yards per game), though
the fact that the Colts have faced the second-fewest attempts in the league
has something to do with that trend as well. There is a mixed blessing in the
secondary, as safety Mike Doss (torn ACL) has been ruled out for the rest of
the year on the same week that Bob Sanders (knee) is scheduled to appear for
the first time since Week 2. Doss leads the Colts in interceptions with two.
At cornerback, Nick Harper (22 tackles, 1 INT) and Jason David (20 tackles, 1
INT) will bear most of the responsibility for slowing Walker and Smith this
week.
As always, the number one directive for the Denver offense on Sunday will be
to run the football. Despite facing some early questions about the abilities
of the ground attack, the Broncos and their zone-blocking scheme are a solid
fourth in NFL rushing offense (143.3 yards per game), with Tatum Bell (585
rushing yards, 2 TD, 13 receptions). Bell, who last week posted his third 100-
yard game of the season, is averaging a healthy 4.7 yards per carry and
appears well on the way to his first 1,000-yard season as a pro. Backfield
mate Mike Bell (141 rushing yards, 1 TD) had been used sparingly as Tatum Bell
had begun to emerge, but the former Bell did garner 10 carries last week
against Cleveland, his most touches since Week 2.
The Colts enter Week 8 ranked a distant 31st in the league against the run
(158 yards per game) and last in yards allowed per carry (5.2), though there
is reason for optimism on that front. First is the return of Sanders, one of
the team's best run-stoppers, and the other is the presence of ex-Buccaneers
tackle Anthony McFarland, who made two tackles in his Indianapolis debut last
week. McFarland, who was obtained from Tampa Bay at the trade deadline, will
this week start in place of the injured Montae Reagor (facial injuries
sustained in an auto accident). Seeking to contribute behind the tackles will
be linebackers Cato June (61 tackles), Gary Brackett (54 tackles), and Gilbert
Gardner (33 tackles), none of whom have made a wealth of big plays this
season. Indy did a decent job against the run last week, allowing Washington
running backs Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts to compile a modest 95 yards on
22 carries.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Much will be made of Peyton Manning's recent record against the Denver
Broncos, which has included plenty of completions, yards, and wins. But
Manning has yet to face this configuration of the Denver defense, which is
improved in all phases over the one that the quarterback last saw, and has won
games in 2006 due to an almost robotic form of assignment football. Look for
the Broncos defense to frustrate the daylights out of Manning for four
quarters. On the other side of the ball, Denver will be able to do what it
does best - run the football - against an Indianapolis defense that (even with
McFarland and Sanders in tow) has giant, exploitable weaknesses.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Broncos 27, Colts 13