Chris Bosh is one of the NBA's most promising young players. (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)
2006-07 NBA preview
Re-built for success
The latest version of the Toronto Raptors has a definite European feel
Last Updated Tues., Oct. 16, 2006
Paul Jay, CBC Sports Online
When the Toronto Raptors finished their disappointing season in May with only 27 wins in 82 games, most observers expected new general manager Bryan Colangelo to make changes.
Nobody, however, could have expected the wholesale roster overhaul that followed, with Colangelo replacing nine of the team’s 15 players.
Only Chris Bosh, Morris Peterson, Pape Sow, Derrick Martin and last year’s rookies Jose Calderon and Joey Graham remain from the former roster.
The new squad has a decidedly European feel, with Slovenian centre Rasho Nesterovic arriving from the San Antonio Spurs and four other new faces coming from Euroleague teams, including first overall pick Andrea Bargnani from Italy.
The changes and the team’s commitment to running a fast-break offence have added to the growing sense among basketball observers that, if nothing else, the Toronto Raptors will be one of the most interesting and entertaining teams to watch.
But they’ve also made a point of bringing in winners. Ford led the Milwaukee Bucks to the playoffs in his two healthy seasons, and Fred Jones and Nesterovic have never missed the post-season in their four and eight years in the league respectively. New Spanish forward Jorge Garbajosa and Calderon led Spain to a gold medal at the World Basketball Championships, and American Anthony Parker won a Euroleague title and two MVP awards playing for Maccabi Tel Aviv in Israel.
Oddly, the only player on the team without a history of winning is its best player, Chris Bosh. The all-star power forward averaged 22 points and nine rebounds a game last year, but has yet to make the playoffs in three years. Even in his one year of college at Georgia Tech Bosh missed the NCAA tournament.
But for the Raptors to end a four-year playoff drought, Bosh is going to have to be the one to lead them.
Whether or not he can mesh with the sudden culture change could be the difference between his first trip to the playoffs or another year of rebuilding.
Backcourt
T.J. Ford gives Toronto its first pass-first point guard since Marc Jackson, and the only one with the speed and ball-handling to consistently dribble past defenders and break down a defence. Last year’s starter Mike James averaged 20 points a game and was a much better shooter, but too often looked for his shot at the expense of his teammates. The issue with Ford is his health, as he missed his second year in the league with a spinal injury.
Calderon struggled with a heel injury last season, but showed promise as a capable back-up, though his shooting remains the worst part of his game. His success leading Spain to a world championship can only help his confidence. Veteran Derrick Martin returns and will play a similar role to last season, acting as a third point guard and unofficial assistant coach.
New additions Fred Jones and Anthony Parker will battle for the starting shooting guard spot, with Morris Peterson likely sliding down to his more natural small forward position. Jones is an explosive dunker with long arms who plays much bigger than his six-foot-four height, but lacks big game experience. Parker is a proven winner with an all-round game, but other than a knack for getting open for mid-range jump shots, he doesn’t excel at any one thing. Both can play defence and break a defender down with their dribble, but neither is a particularly good shooter from three-point range.
Jose Calderon impressed with his play at the world championships, helping lead Spain the gold medal. (Aaron Harris/Associated Press)
Frontcourt
What makes Bosh among the most promising players in the NBA is his ability to improve. His points, rebounds, assists, and field goal and free throw percentages have risen in each of his three years in the league. Last year his jump shot from 15 feet out went from shaky to automatic, making him even harder to guard. On defence and as a rebounder he remains competent, but not dominant, and he will need help from his teammates.
Peterson had his best year as a professional and was a rock for Toronto, providing solid help with defence and outside shooting. Nesterovic is expected to start at centre and has size and experience, but is not a particularly good rebounder and is a liability on offence.
Who plays where off the bench is unclear. Garbajosa is a pesky defender and great position rebounder, but he may be undersized to play power forward and more ideally suited to back up Peterson. His outside shooting gives the team its most consistent frontcourt deep threat since Donyell Marshall, so there’s little doubt the team will find a way to get him on the floor. Bargnani could see time at all three frontcourt positions. He has the height of a centre and the skills of a small forward, but is likely to get pushed around until he gains strength.
Also in the mix are Joey Graham and PJ Tucker, two similarly chiselled players with toughness but a lack of size and quickness, and young bangers Kris Humphries and Uros Slokar. Humphries is a great rebounder, something this team sorely needs, but he is an abysmal shooter. Slokar can shoot, but barely played behind Bargnani while at Benetton Treviso last year, which doesn’t bode well for his minutes in the NBA. Holdover Pape Sow suffered a neck injury this summer and will miss the entire season.
Coaching
If the Toronto Raptors struggle early as they did during last season’s 1-15 start, head coach Sam Mitchell will likely be looking for a job. This year’s team has more talent than last year’s undermanned squad and also appears to have been assembled with Mitchell’s blessing; he played alongside Nesterovic when both were on the Minnesota Timberwolves and coached Ford as an assistant in Milwaukee. If he can’t bring out the best in the two likely starters this team will struggle to win 30 games.
Much has been made about the team’s move to an up-tempo attack, but last year the team was fourth in the league in scoring, so putting up points wasn’t a problem. The difference this season may be how those points are scored — through tempo and off turnovers as opposed to a steady diet of three-point attempts.
The challenge for Mitchell will be to install an offence that doesn’t expose the team on the other end of the floor. Last season the team allowed 104 points per game, with only the Seattle Sonics allowing more. No one on the Raptors is a liability on defence, but neither is there a player who can change a game and shut down the best players in the league — which means the scheme Mitchell comes up with will be key.
Season outlook
In a weak Atlantic division, only the New Jersey Nets seem a lock to make the playoffs. Differentiating Toronto from Atlantic rivals Philadelphia, New York and Boston is complicated by the volume of changes made to the roster. As a result, there is no consensus about how this team will do.
Among the early predictions from basketball yearbooks, Street & Smiths picks the Raptors to finish second in the Atlantic, while Athlon predicts a fourth-place finish and CBS Sportsline is both the most specific and most damning, predicting a last-place finish and a 22-60 record. CBS’s prediction was hardly the only negative, as Toronto Star sports writer Chris Young predicted 27 wins in his blog.
But given the talent added to the roster, it’s probably more reasonable to expect a win total somewhere between 35 and 40.
With Miami, Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, New Jersey and Washington all likely to return to the playoffs in the Eastern conference, only two spots in the post-season appear up for grabs. If all goes according to the Raptors plan, the team will likely battle Orlando, Indiana and Milwaukee for one of those last two spots.
With Bosh, Bargnani and Ford all under 24 years old, this team has a bright future. In the short term, however, the road remains bumpy for a young and untested team.
MORE ON THE RAPTORS
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- Raptors inking Ford long-term: source
- Oct. 16, 2006
- 2006-07 NBA season preview
- Oct. 16, 2006
- Q and A: Bryan Colangelo
- Oct. 10, 2006
- Raptors sharp in pre-season opener
- Oct. 9, 2006
- Bargnani adapts to Raptors
- Oct. 4, 2006
- Revamped Raptors open camp
- Oct. 3, 2006
- Raptors pick Italian Bargnani No. 1
- Feb. 28, 2006
- Raptors hire Colangelo
- Feb. 28, 2006
The new-look Raptors
Off-season additions
Point guard T.J.
Ford (trade, Milwaukee Bucks); forward/centre Andrea
Bargnani (draft pick, Benetton Treviso); centre Rasho
Nesterovic (trade, San Antonio Spurs); shooting guard Fred
Jones (free agent, Indiana Pacers); guard/forward Anthony
Parker (free agent, Maccabi Tel Aviv); forward Jorge
Garbajosa (free agent, Unicaja Malaga); power forward Kris
Humphries (trade, Utah Jazz); guard/forward P.J.
Tucker (draft, University of Texas); forward/centre Uros
Slokar (draft, Benetton Treviso).
Off-season departures
Guard Mike
James (free agent, Minnesota Timberwolves); forward Charlie
Villanueva (trade, Milwaukee Bucks); forward Matt
Bonner (trade, San Antonio Spurs); centre Loren
Woods (free agent, Sacramento Kings); centre Rafael
Araujo (trade, Utah Jazz); forward Eric
Williams (trade, San Antonio Spurs); guard Alvin
Williams (released); centre James
Lang (free agent, Washington Wizards camp invitee); point guard Andre
Barrett (free agent, Chicago Bulls camp invitee).
Probable starting lineup:
TJ Ford
(PG)
Fred Jones
(SG)
Morris
Peterson (SF)
Chris
Bosh (PF)
Rasho
Nesterovic (C)
Bench depth chart:
Anthony
Parker (G/F)
Andrea
Bargnani (F/C)
Jorge
Garbajosa (F)
Jose Calderon
(PG)
Joey Graham
(SF)