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Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat
Research Document - 2006/053
Assessment of the recovery potential of the eastern Canadian Arctic bowhead
whale population by deterministic projections with a modified logistic growth
model
By Dueck, L.P., and P. Richard
Abstract
A deterministic growth model employing a logistic growth function was used to
simulate the population growth of the eastern Arctic bowhead whale population.
Parameters in the model included Rmax (the natural intrinsic rate of increase of
the population), K (the estimated carrying capacity of the ecosystem), Ψ (a
shaping parameter that modifies the population growth rate as the population
approaches theoretical carrying capacity), and C (human induced causes of
mortality). A total of 612 scenarios were examined, based on the combinations of
different levels for the parameters described above. The levels were selected to
encompass the range of uncertainty in modeling the growth of the population as
well as including harvest levels ranging from low or none, to levels that
resulted in a decline in the population. The results of the model provide
insight into the potential for recovery of the bowhead whale population in the
eastern Arctic. Under the assumptions of the model, under moderate levels of
human-induced mortality, all scenarios would lead to recovery of the population.
The results provide a useful measure of comparison for stochastic modeling
exercises incorporating error into growth parameters.
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