NR-HQ-98-08E

Anderson Postpones Seal Survey Until 1999

February 27, 1998

ST. JOHN’S -- Fisheries and Oceans Minister David Anderson today announced that the 1998 harp seal survey scheduled to begin the first of March has been postponed until next year, on the advice of the department’s seal scientists in the Newfoundland, Maritimes and Laurentian (Quebec) Regions.

"The current ice conditions in the Gulf raise a major concern about our ability to conduct an accurate survey of harp seal pup production in March 1998," the Minister stated. "The latest ice maps indicate that ice extent is less than normal and much thinner than average. In the traditional areas where harp seals pup, ice is very loose and thin to hold whelping seals."

The survey design for harp seals is complex and is predicated upon examining historical areas and suitable ice habitat to locate the whelping concentrations. The distribution of whelping females is known to be heavily influenced by ice conditions and, if ice does not form or is too thin, whelping locations may change, making reconnaissance more difficult. Such changes were reported in 1965, 1969 and 1981 when whelping seals were found in Northumberland Strait and on the beaches of PEI.

The proportion of females that pup on the ice and the mortality rates of pups, which are assumed to be constant from year to year, may also change. The extent to which these factors may influence the results cannot be estimated.

Ice at the Front, off northeastern Newfoundland, is likely adequate for whelping. However, if a Gulf survey cannot be completed successfully, a survey at the Front would not provide meaningful information on the status of the seal population.

Ice conditions in the Gulf of St. Lawrence have been intensively monitored over the past several weeks because of relatively warm conditions and the possibility that ice cover would not be adequate for the harp seal survey.

At present, the area covered by ice in the Gulf is about average but most of the ice is thin and not suitable for harp seal whelping. Only in one small area northwest of Magdalen Islands is ice thick enough for whelping, while conditions are marginally suitable in areas between the Magdalens and Prince Edward Island.

Reviews of the methodology used to estimate harp seal abundance by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea/North Atlantic Fisheries Organization (ICES/NAFO) Harp and Hooded Seal Working Group at Archangelsk in 1992, and by the International Workshop on Harp Seal Biology at St. John’s in February, 1997, stressed the importance of using standardized procedures to estimate population parameters.

Marine mammal scientists Don Bowen in DFO’s Maritimes Region, Mike Hammill in the Laurentian Region and Becky Sjare and Garry Stenson in Newfoundland, have analyzed the situation thoroughly.

They advise that conducting a survey in a year with unusual ice conditions would be inconsistent with previous surveys. The results, therefore, would be difficult to interpret. The department has accepted their recommendation that the survey be postponed until March 1999.