Appendix IV:AQUATIC ORGANISM RISK ANALYSIS

Table of Contents

To be Completed by Introductions and Transfers Committees

Unless the authorising jurisdiction requires the Risk Analysis to be prepared by the proponent

INTRODUCTION

To evaluate risks associated with the introduction or transfer of aquatic organisms, it is necessary to assess the probability that a species will become established and the consequences of that establishment. The process addresses the major environmental components. It provides a standardised approach for evaluating the risk of genetic, ecological and disease impacts as well as the potential for introducing a “fellow traveller” or parasite that might impact the native species of the proposed receiving waters. It also provides a mechanism for assessment in cases where establishment of a population in the wild is the intended outcome. This approach has been adapted from "Final Draft - Report to the Aquatic Nuisance Task Force - Generic Non-indigenous Aquatic Organisms Risk Analysis Review Process, Washington, DC, February 9, 1996 by the Risk Assessment and Management Committee of the U.S. Aquatic Nuisance Species Task Force” (Anon. 1996).

At each of Steps 1, 2 and 3, the element rating and rationale for the rating should be recorded, based on the following criteria:

A HIGH rating means that the risk is likely or very likely to occur.

A MEDIUM rating means that there is a probability of negative impact.

A LOW rating means that the risk is considered to be insignificant.

Note: For the High and Medium category of risks, application of appropriate mitigation measures are required to lessen the risk to a Low rating. However, it is recognized that this may not be possible for all proposals.

The strength of the review process is not in the ratings but in the detailed biological and other relevant information statements that motivate them.

Part I – Ecological and Genetic Risk Assessment Process

Step 1 Determining the Probability of Establishment (beyond the intended area of introduction)

Complete the following table and provide a brief rationale with appropriate references to support the rating given.

Explanatory Notes

1.
H High
M Medium
L Low

Element ratings should be supported with data and references, including a rationale for the rating given.

2.
VC Very certain
RC Reasonably certain
RU Reasonably uncertain
VU Very uncertain

The level of certainty is intended to give an estimate of whether the element that is being rated is based on scientific knowledge, experience, or whether it is extremely subjective and based on “best guess”. Such uncertainties need to be taken into account when making a decision.

3. Characteristics within this element include: the organism coming in contact with an adequate food resource; suitability of habitat, encountering appreciable biotic and abiotic environmental resistance; and the ability to reproduce in the new environment. . If the organism is introduced into a confined facility (land based, sea cages etc.), the facility itself is identified as the intended area of introduction.

4. In cases in which the intended area of introduction is a natural habitat (i.e., the wild) the probability of spreading includes consideration of, but is not limited to, factors such as the ability to use human intervention/activity as a means of dispersal

5. In cases in which the intended area of introduction is a confined environment such as a land facility or cages, the probability of spreading beyond the area of introduction is dependent on whether the organism escapes from the area of introduction. For example, a Low probability of escape from a confined facility will necessarily result in a Low probability of spreading in the surrounding natural habitat. If the probability of escape is deemed Medium, the probability of spreading beyond the area of introduction, if estimated as High, could still not be rated higher than Medium. Whereas, if the probability of escape is deemed High, the probability of spreading beyond the area of introduction will not be limited by its probability of escape and could be rated as estimated (i.e., High, Medium or Low).

6. The final rating for the Probability of Establishment is assigned the value of the element with the lowest rating (for example, High and Low ratings for the above elements would result in a final Low rating). Again, both events – probability of the organism successfully colonizing and maintaining a population in the intended area of introduction (be it a confined environment such as a facility, or a natural habitat) and the probability of spreading beyond the intended area of introduction (estimated as explained above) – need to occur in order to have establishment beyond the intended area of introduction.

The final rating for the Level of Certainty is assigned the value of the element with the Lowest level of certainty (e.g., Very Certain and Reasonably Certain ratings would result in a final Reasonably Certain rating).

Part 1 – Step 2 Determining the Consequence of Establishment of an Aquatic Organism

The “Consequence of Establishment” is assigned a single rating based on environmental impacts.

Explanatory Notes

7. See Note 1.

8. See Note 2.

9. Ecological impacts that can affect the distribution or abundance of native species resulting from alterations in relationships such as predation, prey availability, and habitat availability. In assessing the ecological impacts of establishment, the assessors should take into consideration whether the non-indigenous stock i) enters or alters the habitat of indigenous species; ii) displaces indigenous species from optimal habitat; iii) affects the quantity, quality, and availability of food supply of indigenous species; or, iv) preys on other species of concern.

10. Genetic impacts which can affect the capacity of native species to maintain and transfer to successive generations its current identity and diversity. In assessing the genetic impacts, the assessors should take into consideration whether the non-indigenous stock i) encounters or interacts with species of concern; ii) affects the survival of local species; iii) affects the reproductive success of local species; or, iv) affects the genetic characteristics of native stocks or species.

11. The final rating for the Consequences of Establishment is assigned the value of the element (individual probability) with the highest rating (for example: a High probability of ecological impact and a Medium rating for the probability of genetic impact would result in an overall High probability of environmental impact), as both events are independent (i.e., additive probabilities).

12. See Note 6.

Part 1 – Step 3 Estimating Aquatic Organism Risk Potential

The overall Risk is assigned a single value based on the Probability of Establishment and the Consequences of Establishment.

Explanatory Notes

13. As estimated in Step 1 - Use the “final rating level” and “final level of certainty”, respectively.

14. As estimated in Step 2 - Use the “final rating level” and “final level of certainty”, respectively.

15. Under “element rating ” – Table 1 provides a guide for categorizing the final risk estimate. See also the explanatory note number 29 below Table 1.

16. Under “level of certainty” – the final level of certainty for the Final risk estimate is assigned the value of the element with the lowest certainty level (e.g. a Very Certain and Reasonably Uncertain estimate for the probability of establishment and consequences of establishment, respectively, would result in an overall Reasonably Uncertain level of certainty).

Definition of Overall Aquatic Organism Risk Potential

HIGH = Organism(s) of major concern (major mitigation measures are required). It is advised that the proposal be rejected unless mitigation procedures can be developed to reduce the risk to Low.

MEDIUM = Organism(s) of moderate concern. It is advised that the proposal be rejected unless mitigation procedures can be developed to reduce the risk to Low.

LOW = Organism(s) of little concern. It is advised that the proposal be approved. Mitigation is not needed.

Note: It is advised that the proposal be approved as presented (no mitigating measures required) only if the overall estimated risk potential is LOW
Note: It is advised that the proposal be approved only if the overall confidence level for which the overall risk was estimated is VERY CERTAIN or REASONABLY CERTAIN.

Note: For an overall HIGH or MEDIUM risk, a second risk assessment needs to be conducted to determine whether the proposed mitigation procedures are adequate to reduce the overall risk to LOW.

Part 1 – Step 4 Completion of Risk Assessment Documentation

Specific Management Questions (Mitigation Factors or Measures)

Additional Factors and Notes

1. Mitigation measures could reduce risks to a Low rating. Mitigation measures include but are not limited to the following:

Reducing risk of genetic impact on local stock:

• hold in containment facilities to prevent escape
• use stocks genetically similar to stocks in receiving waters
• sterilize organisms to prevent interbreeding with local populations

Reducing risk of ecological impact on local ecosystems:

• use local stock only
• sterilize organisms to prevent natural reproduction and increase in population size
• use species that cannot reproduce naturally in receiving waters
• hold in containment facilities to prevent escapes

2 Are there any neighbouring jurisdictions to consult?

If Yes ? Has this been done?

Is the neighbouring jurisdiction concerned?
If Yes ? Has the dispute avoidance mechanism outlined in Appendix II been applied?

Part 2 – Pathogen, Parasite or Fellow Traveller Risk Assessment Process

Step 1 Determining the Probability of Establishment

Complete the following table and provide a brief rationale with appropriate references to support the rating given.

Steps 1 to 3 must be carried out for each hazard identified in the hazard identification step (Appendix V).

Explanatory notes

17. See Note 1.

18. See Note 2.

19. The final rating for the Probability of Establishment is assigned the value of the element with the lowest risk rating (e.g., a Medium and Low estimate for the above elements would result in an overall Low rating). Note that the calculation of the final rating follows the multiplication rule of probabilities (i.e., the probability that a given event will occur corresponds to the product of the individual probabilities). Thus the final risk of establishment is assigned the value of the lowest individual probability estimate. Again, both events – probability of the pathogen, parasite or fellow traveller successfully colonizing and maintaining a population in the intended area of introduction (be it in a confined environment such as a facility, or a natural habitat) and the probability of spreading beyond the intended area of introduction (estimated as explained above) – need to occur in order to have establishment beyond the intended area of introduction.

20. The final rating for the level of certainty for the Probability of Establishment is assigned the value of the element with the lowest level of certainty (e.g. a Very Certain and Reasonably Uncertain ratings for the above elements would result in a final Reasonably Uncertain rating).

Part 2 – Step 2 Determining the Consequence of Establishment of a Pathogen, Parasite or Fellow Traveller

Complete the following table and provide a brief rationale with appropriate references to support the rating given. The final rating of the Consequences of Establishment is assigned a single rating based on environmental impacts.

Explanatory notes

21. See Note 1.

22. See Note 2.

23. The final rating for the Consequences of Establishment is assigned the value of the element (individual probability) with highest risk rating (e.g. High and Medium ratings for the above elements would result in a final High rating) as both events are independent (i.e., additive probabilities).

24. See Note 20.

Part 2 – Step 3 Estimating Pathogen, Parasite or Fellow Traveller Risk Potential

The overall Risk is assigned a single value based on the Probability of Establishment and the Consequences of Establishment.

Explanatory notes

25. As estimated in Step 1 – Use “ final rating for probability of establishment” and “final rating for the level of certainty”, respectively.

26. As estimated in Step 2 – Use “final rating for consequences of establishment” and “final rating for the level of certainty”, respectively.

27. Under “element rating”, Table 1 below provides a guide for categorizing the final risk estimate.

28. See Note 20.

Definition of “Pathogen, Parasite, Fellow Traveller Organism Risk Potential”

HIGH = Organism(s) of major concern (major mitigation measures are required). It is advised that the proposal be rejected unless mitigation procedures can be developed to reduce the risk to Low.

MEDIUM = Organism(s) of moderate concern. Mitigation is justified. It is advised that the proposal be rejected unless mitigation procedures can be developed to reduce the risk to Low.

LOW = Acceptable risk - organism(s) of little concern. It is advised that the proposal be approved as presented. Mitigation is not needed.

Note: It is advised that the proposal be approved as presented only if the overall risk associated with each identified potential hazard (as defined in Step 1) was estimated as LOW.

Note: It is advised that the proposal be approved as presented only if the overall confidence level for which the overall risk is VERY CERTAIN OR REASONABLY CERTAIN

Note: For an overall HIGH or MEDIUM risk, a second risk assessment needs to be conducted to determine whether the proposed mitigation procedures are adequate to reduce the overall risk to LOW

Part 2 – Step 4 Completion of Risk Assessment Documentation

Specific Management Questions (Mitigation Factors or Measures)

Additional Factors and Notes

Mitigation measures could reduce risks to a low rating. Examples of mitigation measures include the following:

Reducing risk of transferring accompanying pathogens, parasites and/or fellow travellers

• health inspection and certification
• pre-treatment for pathogens, diseases and parasites
• inspection for fellow travellers
• disinfection prior to discarding water in which the organisms arrived
• vaccination
• disinfection of eggs
• importation as milt or fertilized eggs only
• quarantine incoming organisms and use as broodstock, release F1 progeny only if no pathogens, parasites or fellow travellers appear.

Table 1. How to Categorize the Final Risk Estimate ²⁹

Explanatory Note

29. If there is no probability increment between the two estimates, (i.e., if the Probability of Establishment is High and the Consequence of Establishment is Medium) the final risk estimate takes the value of the highest of the two probabilities to err on the side of safety (precautionary approach).