Forest fires in Canadian boreal forests burn an average of 2.5 million hectares annually. It is a natural and necessary force shaping the landscape and influencing the carbon budget. In addition to fire management options, the frequency, extent and impact of boreal fires is primarily controlled by short-term weather conditions. Using four General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project forest fire danger levels in Canada under a warming climate, large increases in the areal extent of extreme fire danger, and a lengthening of the fire season were found. Moreover, the impacts will include more frequent and severe fires, shorter growth periods between fires, proportionally younger stands, and a decrease in the carbon storage of northern Canadian forests.

Map 3 larger image [GIF, 58.4 kb, 785 X 519, notice]

Map 3 shows the change in seasonal severity ratings (SSR) across Canada between 1980 and 1989 and a doubled CO2 climate (based on the Canadian GCM). The most significant increase (and potentially major impact) occurs in west-central Canada, particularly in northwestern Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and the Northwest Territories. These areas are currently and historically the regions of most significant forest fire activity in Canada. If the impacts of these climate change scenarios are realized, current protection priorities may require rethinking.

Contact:

Brian Stocks
Canadian Forest Service
Natural Resources Canada
P.O. Box 490
1219 Queen Street East, Rm. B427
Sault Ste. Marie, ON
P6A 5M7
705-759-5740 ext. 2181
Email: bstocks@NRCan.gc.ca