Fire Research » Fire & Forest Management

Fire Growth Models

Introduction

Fire growth modeling and the prediction of hourly fire perimeters, actual fire behavior, and potential fire behavior are important goals of forest managers. The Canadian Forest Fire Behavior Prediction System, which is a subsystem of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System, provides quantitative estimates of fire behavior for specific Canadian fuel types.The rate of spread and fire behavior patterns across cells of these fuel types can be approximated from estimates of fuel moisture content, wind speed, wind direction, slope, and aspect of the terrain. Several computerized fire growth models have been developed that incorporate digital fuel maps, detailed fuel type information, and diurnal weather models to predict fire growth patterns and hourly fire perimeters. Such models are useful for the simulation of natural fire growth, assessment of values at risk, land use impact analysis, and fire-suppression planning and analysis.

Some examples of fire growth models:

• Prometheus — the Canadian Wildland Fire Growth Model (CWFGM)
• Wildfire — Fire Growth Model
• PFAS — Prescribed Fire Analysis System