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Fire Research » Fire & Climate Change » National & International Activities
Assessing Past, Current, and Future Fire Occurrence and Fire Severity
in British Columbia
| Fire is a critical process in British Columbia's
forests in terms of their composition, structure, and function.
Climate change will result in an altered fire regime that has the
potential to overshadow the importance of the direct effects of
climate warming on species distribution, migration, substitution,
and extinction. Understanding the changes in fire activity, number
of fire starts, and area burned that British Columbia can expect
under climate change is extremely important to the general public
from both timber loss and community protection standpoints. It is
also important in the context of improving our understanding of
how fire disturbances will influence forest succession and migration
under future climate conditions. |
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| Historic data of 90th percentile
Fine Fuel Moisture Code for 1–15 August for 1955 (top) and
1961 (bottom) |
Fire weather represents unique short periods of weather involving temperature,
humidity, and wind speed. If global circulation model (GCM) and regional
climate model (RCM) projections of climate change are to be considered
for use in assessing future fire weather conditions, it is imperative
that they be able to recreate current weather conditions. To date, the
resolution of the GCM is inadequate to reliably predict events for British
Columbia, and more sophisticated analysis is required to predict the impact
of climate change for British Columbia's complex terrain and vegetation
conditions at a regional level.
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In this current work, the potential of the RCM to generate realistic
fire weather, danger, occurrence, and area burned estimates for
projections of current climate conditions in British Columbia will
be evaluated. The intent is to provide feedback to the RCM modeling
community on the ability of current models to simulate current fire
weather conditions. Recommendations will be made on where improvements
are needed to reduce uncertainty and improve confidence in using
the RCM for assessing the implications of climate change on future
fire regimes.
Moreover, there is some evidence to suggest that severe fire seasons,
fire occurrence, and drought in British Columbia are associated
with sea surface temperature anomalies (El Niño and La Niña).
The second component of this project is designed to establish whether
any trends exist between fire season severity and the occurrence
of El Niño and La Niña. This work should establish
predictive relationships that could be used to support long-term
seasonal fire management planning in British Columbia, by identifying
the epicentre location and strength of past anomalies and the lag
time associated with fire occurrence and drought. The frequency
of problematic synoptic patterns such as omega blocks, cold fronts,
and severe lightning associated with El Niño and La Niña
will also be evaluated.
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| RCM projection of mean 90th
percentile Daily Severity Rating for 1 x CO2 scenario
(1975–1985).
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| RCM projection of mean 90th percentile Daily
Severity Rating for 2 x CO2 scenario (2041–2049).
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RCM projection of mean 90th percentile Daily
Severity Rating for 3 x CO2 scenario (2080–2089).
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For more information, contact:
| M.D. (Mike) Flannigan |
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Canadian Forest Service
Great Lakes Forestry Centre
1219 Queen Street East
Sault Ste. Marie, ON P6A 2E5 |
Phone: (705) 541-5541
Fax: (705) 541-5701
e-mail: Mike.Flannigan@nrcan.gc.ca |
| J.B. (Bernie) Todd |
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Canadian Forest Service
Northern Forestry Centre
5320-122 Street
Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5 |
Phone: (780) 435-7398
Fax: (780)435-7359
e-mail: Bernie.Todd@NRCan.gc.ca |
| B.M. (Mike) Wotton |
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Canadian Forest Service
Great Lakes Forestry Centre
1219 Queen Street East
Sault Ste. Marie, ON P6A 2E5 |
Phone: (705) 541-5740
Fax: (705) 541-5701
e-mail: Mike.Wotton@nrcan.gc.ca |
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