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Assessing Recent and Future Fire Behavior Potential in the Southern Boreal Forest of Saskatchewan

Increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases are projected to markedly alter the climate of western Canada. These changes could have a profound influence on fire regimes. Although we know that periodic large wildfires have always played a role in the dynamics of the boreal forest, their magnitude and frequency could be altered significantly in this part of Canada. In fact, the increase in the severity of the fire season may actually play a greater role in the forest ecosystem than the change in climate conditions alone. Under the double carbon dioxide (2 x CO₂) environment that is predicted in about 50 years, sustainable forest management may be increasingly challenging if larger fires decrease the available timber supply.

80th percentile Head Fire Intensity maps for the entire fire season from Regional Climate Model Scenarios for 1 x CO₂ (left), 2 x CO₂ (center), and 3 x CO₂ (right).

In this study, we evaluated the present and future fire behavior potential of the entire commercial forest of Saskatchewan (135 000 km²) by combining historical weather data or weather data generated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) with fuel types and topography. Fire behavior potential based on the Head Fire Intensity (HFI) of a wildfire, which can be linked to fire effects and suppression effectiveness, was assessed. Although central Saskatchewan is already an area of high fire behavior potential, our study predicted significant increases over the entire study area in the next 50 years in a 2 x CO₂ environment. Areas with deciduous stands seemed to be the exception. The central and northern sections of central Saskatchewan, which are mostly covered by jack pine and black spruce, seems to be the most sensitive to predicted climate changes, and fire behavior could become significantly more extreme in this part of the province. Results also indicate that the greatest change in fire behavior is likely to occur from a 1 x CO₂ to a 2 x CO₂ climate scenario and then stabilize from a 2 x CO₂ to a 3 x CO₂ scenario. The predicted increases in fire behavior potential could considerably reduce suppression capability and result in greater area burned by wildfires. This, in turn, could have major social, economic, and ecological impacts.

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