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Improving Energy Performance in Canada – Report to Parliament Under the Energy Efficiency Act - 2003-2004

Chapter 3: Measuring Progress

Introduction

The primary goal of Natural Resources Canada's (NRCan's) efficiency and alternative energy initiatives is to change energy consumption patterns to obtain environmental and economic benefits. Part of assessing program progress and performance involves considering both program delivery and program effectiveness.

In the past, NRCan has focused on the monitoring and tracking of the following three aspects of program delivery:

• program outputs
• program outcomes
• market outcomes

Program outputs are the items produced regularly, such as information and marketing materials, demonstration projects, financial incentives and regulations. Program outputs are designed to lead to program outcomes – namely, changes in the behaviour of groups targeted by a program. These groups may be either energy users or producers of energy-using equipment or structures. For example, program outcomes occur when consumers purchase more energy-efficient appliances than they would have if there were no program. Other important factors that influence consumer behaviour include product price, household income, personal taste and other government and non-government programs.

Since program outcomes can directly affect the amount and type of energy consumed in the market, they contribute, in part, to observable market outcomes. Market outcomes ultimately reflect the impacts of NRCan programs on changes in energy efficiency, energy intensity, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the use of alternative energy. In this sense, achievement of a targeted market outcome, or observable progress towards a market outcome, serves as an indicator of program effectiveness. An example of a program outcome that leads to a market outcome is a house-holder's purchase of a more energy-efficient appliance and reduced use of electricity. Depending on the source of electricity and how the utility changes its electricity-generating methods to meet the change in demand that results from reduced electricity use, this could also lead to a decline in GHG emissions.

Focusing on Results

The government-wide initiative aimed at "managing for results" has encouraged management in all federal departments and agencies to focus more on the impacts and effects of their programs and services on the lives of Canadians. Managing for results requires more than just the monitoring of program delivery; it means clearly defining the results to be achieved, increasing the emphasis on program and market outcomes, measuring and evaluating program performance, and making adjustments to improve both the efficiency and effectiveness of programs. It also means reporting on performance in ways that make sense to Canadians.

This report uses a mix of progress indicators, which are quantitative where possible. The challenge for NRCan is to continuously improve the coverage and quality of these progress indicators, both in general and in order to ensure that they increasingly reflect a focus on results. The following section highlights some of NRCan's efforts to improve the quality of its program performance information through better data collection and data analysis.

Data Collection and Analysis

In 1991, NRCan launched the National Energy Use Database (NEUD) initiative to help the department improve its knowledge of energy consumption and energy efficiency at the end-use level in Canada, and to support NRCan's analytical expertise. The NEUD initiative plays a number of crucial roles directly related to NRCan program activities; however, its most important roles are to secure the development of a reliable, Canada-wide information base on energy consumption at the end-use level for all energy-consuming sectors, and to perform analyses related to energy efficiency program performances.

The NEUD initiative consists of several broad components that typically involve conducting large- and small-scale surveys of the stocks and characteristics of energy-using equipment and buildings, observing consumer behaviour with respect to energy use, monitoring the adoption of new technologies in the market place and participating in the development of energy end-use data and analysis centres (DACs) across Canada.

The main objective of the DACs is to create a base of expertise for the analysis of energy consumption at the end-use level in Canada. The DACs are mandated to improve the accessibility and comparability of existing data on the evolution of energy consumption and its impact on environmental quality. Three DACs currently exist: the transportation centre at Université Laval in Québec City, Quebec; the industrial centre at Simon Fraser University in Burnaby, British Columbia; and the buildings centre at University of Alberta in Edmonton, Alberta.

The centres have made significant contributions to NEUD's mandate of improving knowledge of energy consumption and energy efficiency at the end-use level in Canada. For example, in 2003-2004, the transportation centre at Université Laval, using a discrete choice model, conducted an analysis on the impact of the EnerGuide sticker for new vehicles on consumers' purchase behaviour.