21 record(s) found.

An Evaluation of Impact Assessment Procedures

This study examined whether the choice of models and modelling methods affects the results of agricultural impact assessments. Using statistical tests, the researchers concluded that the choice of downscaling, land suitability, and crop yield models does not unduly influence the results of impact assessments.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Assessment of Climate Change and Impacts on Soil Moisture and Drought on the Prairies

Using temperature and precipitation projections from a range of climate change scenarios, the researchers found that future soil moisture levels would be the same or higher than present day values across the Prairie Provinces. Seeding dates for spring wheat would be advanced, and the growing season would be accelerated. There exists the possibility for increased production in this region.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Impact of Climate Change on the Risk of Winter Damage to Agriculture Perennial Crops

This study examined the impacts of climate change on winter damage of perennial forage crops and fruit trees in eastern Canada. Researchers found that warmer winters would harm perennial forage crops by reducing the amount of protective snow cover and increasing the occurrence of above-freezing temperatures, while higher fall temperatures would decrease the cold hardiness of the plants. Although deciduous fruit trees would also suffer from loss of cold hardiness due to above-freezing temperatures, they may benefit from a decrease in both cold stress and late spring frosts.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Impact of Climate Change in the Okanagan Valley – Agriculture (irrigated crops)

Using crop water demand models and Geographical Information Systems (GIS), researchers investigating the impact of climate change on crop water requirements and crop suitability in the southern Okanagan Valley, found that crop water demand could potentially increase by more than 35% between the present and 2070-2099 (using scenarios derived from climate model output). As a result, some agricultural operations could experience water shortages. Water conservation measures, both traditional methods and new approaches, were suggested as potential adaptation options.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Agricultural Adaptation in Atlantic Canada

Researchers applied projections from climate scenarios to investigate the impacts of climate change on agricultural yields in eastern Canada. Models suggest that warmer and longer growing seasons would increase yields of grain corn and soybean. Agricultural production would be expected to shift to crops that are better adapted to warmer climates, although non-climatic factors would continue to influence crop decision-making.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Adaptation Options in Agriculture

This project developed an inventory of adaptation measures for Canadian agriculture and a model to evaluate how successful an adaptation option is likely to be. Researchers identified a wide array of adaptations, including technological, managerial and financial. They concluded that instead of evaluating adaptation options individually, it is more useful to consider how climate change risks fit into the more general decision-making processes in agriculture.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Full Report Location:

Link available
Link available

Vulnerability thresholds and adaptation options to climate change risks in the agri-food sector

The objectives of this study are to identify key climate-related vulnerabilities for the agri-food systems in Ontario and the Prairies and assess adaptation options for managing the identified climate change risks. Time series analyses will be conducted to examine, among other things, whether the variables have exceeded thresholds of the system (e.g. level of moisture deficit beyond which production is threatened). Data on production, income, and payouts (insurance etc.) will be compared to the climatic time series to test for evidence that the climatic extremes are reflected in the production and economic losses. The adaptation analysis will focus on the prospects for and constraints on existing management practices and progress to deal with climate change risks.

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

Prediction of expected impacts of climate change on grasshopper abundance and species composition in the Canadian Prairies

Change climate could result in increases of some species of grasshoppers, which are favoured by early spring, warm summer weather, dry conditions, and mild winters. The project will examine the impacts of temperature, moisture and flooding on grasshopper populations. It will also look at the impacts of changes in grasshopper activity on crops and rangeland production systems for the Canadian Prairies. Anticipation of the characteristics of increased grasshopper problems will allow better formulation of a management plan to control damage without unacceptable crop loss or excessive use of chemical insecticides.

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

Afforestation of Marginal Agricultural Land

This study determined the location, extent and forest potential of soils that are currently marginal for farming, and assessed the socioeconomic impacts of converting those areas to forest production. Researchers applied geographic information systems (GIS), ground-truthing, and socio-economic data to complete the analysis.

Project Status: Complete

Investment Strategies of Agricultural Producers in the Montréal Region

Using focus groups and interviews, researchers assessed how agricultural producers in the southwest Montreal region consider climate change in their investment strategies. They found that adaptability is multi-dimensional, and highly variable between farms and farm types. The study also revealed that although producers generally do not view climate change as an important issue, climate variability is intrinsically integrated into their decision-making process.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Full Report Location: Link available

The Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Development and Growth of Commercial and Horticultural Crops and on Pests Associated with these Crops

This project evaluated the use of bioclimatic models in projecting the impact of climate change on crop development, growth, and pests. The researchers concluded that although excellent models exist, there is a need for them to be updated and further validated. Appropriate models would make it easier for farmers to manage climatic information in their routine operations.

Project Status: Complete

Yield Variability under Climate Change and Adaptive Crop Management Scenarios

Using a simulation model that integrates major biophysical processes and soil and crop management practices, the researchers examined the impacts of climate change on crop yields across Canada. Results indicate that under a 2xCO2 climate change scenario, yields of soybean, potato and winter wheat would generally increase, while yields of corn would tend to decrease. The role of adaptations in reducing losses and increasing gains was also demonstrated.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Impacts of climate change on grazing capacity of native grasslands in the Canadian Prairies

This study will provide improved understanding of the probable impacts of climate change over the next half-century on grazing capacity in rangelands of the Canadian prairies. The objectives are to develop a more definitive assessment of the impact of climate change on grazing capacity of native grasslands in the Prairie provinces (considering the whole range of climates and soil types which support native grassland), and to use this impact assessment as a basis for investigating adaptations that will be required in the livestock industry. As part of this investigation, stakeholders will be surveyed to determine the role of grazing capacity information in their operations. Understanding of the potential impacts of climate change is important because of the significance of range grazing in the economy of this region, the potential for changes in the ecological basis for grazing under climatic change, and the expanding role of grazing as drier parts of the region become less suitable for arable agriculture.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Impacts of Climate Change on Range Site Classification in the Canadian Prairies

This project will examine projected changes in land suitability ratings using multiple scenarios of future climate, and the potential for the agricultural industry to respond to resulting changes in land suitability in the Canadian Prairies. Specifically, the project will develop spatially explicit projections of changes in range site classifications and productivity ratings in light of future climate change. Results will be presented to stakeholders and their significance will be interpreted for future range planning in this region. This research builds on an existing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program agriculture project by this principal investigator. The current project will include better representation in differences among range sites, exploration of the differences in plant species composition among sites, and extended GIS modelling to represent the actual geographic pattern of soils supporting rangeland in the Canadian Prairies. The results of this analysis will indicate changes in range site classification and productivity rating in response to new patterns of climate.

Project Status: In Progress

Adaptation as Resilience Building: a Policy Study of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation on the Canadian Prairies

The project focuses primarily on adaptation, through an examination of why some prairie regions are resilient to existing climate stress, what existing policies and management practices promote or impede resilience to existing climate stress, how climate resilience can be increased by strengthening adaptive capacity through targeted policy intervention, which prairie regions may be highly vulnerable to future climate change, and which policy interventions are most important in these regions. The project includes a vulnerability analysis (integrating historic climate variability, and socio-economic data to identify potential vulnerability “hotspots” for detailed study), a resilience analysis, (farm and community-level appraisals of existing adaptive capacity and its role in building resilience to climate change; a synthesis of current and planned policies that will build resilience to climate change), and an adaptation priority analysis (integrating future climate scenarios with crop and land use models to identify regions where building resilience to climate change may have highest priority).

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

Adaptation Measures for the Ontario Fruit Industry due to Climate Change

The purpose of this project is to determine the vulnerability of the Ontario fruit production industry to climate change by predicting water requirements for high value fruit crop production, both for irrigation (drought protection) and for the likelihood of frost damage protection, and to develop mechanisms for adapting to these changes, such as the selection of irrigation technology and frost protection measures. Specifically, this project will estimate the water requirements for peach and wine grapes under different climate change scenarios, predict irrigation needs under a range of future climate scenarios, and develop water management and investment strategies that will assist farmers in adapting to changes in climatic and hydrologic regimes. It will also analyze growers' decisions regarding the adoption of different irrigation technologies, analyze and estimate potential frost damage occurrences under future climate scenarios, and undertake analyses of growers' decisions regarding the adoption of different frost protection technologies.

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

Farm-Level Vulnerabilities and Adaptations to Climate Change in Quebec: Lessons from Farmer Risk Management and Adaptations to Climatic Variability

This project focuses on risk management strategies by Quebec farmers, combining historical analyses of significant climatic events, selected crop production enterprises and insurance claims (yield effects) with analyses of farm-level strategies in terms of farm productivity and profitability (e.g., crop combinations and diversification strategies, on-farm resources (soils, water) management strategies, sales strategies) following these events. It then takes this understanding of past climate events, whether and how farmers adjusted to them (and their perceptions of adaptations if the frequency of these events were to change significantly), and compares them with the frequency and likelihood of these same events projected from the results of several climatic change scenarios that have already been generated by different models. The project's objectives include identifying vulnerabilities to agriculture in Quebec, the quantification of risks and impacts to farmers and the agricultural sector in Quebec, assessment of how farmers' strategies have affected their degree of economic resiliency to drought conditions, the assessment of how different strategies to cope with drought conditions can be constructed by using farmer and specialist knowledge, and the development of a number of tools for communication of the project results to various decision-makers, including farmers and other actors who have an impact on farm-level decision making.

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

Designing for Resiliency and Self-reliance: an Evaluation of Options for Responding to Agricultural Drought in Canada

This project will assess the effectiveness of selected structural and non-structural responses to agricultural drought in farming systems in Canada. The project will assess the extent to which specific responses lessen vulnerability through enhanced drought preparedness and improved self-reliance at scales ranging from the farm enterprise to agricultural communities and regions, and will highlight lessons that can be learned to cope with future drought conditions as climate changes. The research will be organized around a set of linked objectives designed to extend understanding of the nature and process of drought management and preparedness.

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

Estimating Drought Impacts on Forage Production and Assessing Current and Future Adaptation Options

This project will examine adaptive strategies to climate change, with a focus on the GrassGro Decision Support Tool as an enhanced method to the widely accepted Palmer Drought Index in determining drought management. Several management strategies will be assessed to reduce the strains of drought. For example, simulations that involve conservative stocking rates, which has been shown to allow forage recovery and production carry-over to exist to reduce impacts in drought periods, will be evaluated. The project will also include testing adaptive management options to deal with multi-year severe droughts. While this project will focus on Saskatchewan, the results may be expanded to various locations across the Canadian prairies.

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

Canadian Agricultural Adaptations to 21st Century Droughts: Preparing for Climate Change?

The purpose of this project is to improve understanding of current adaptation processes and options in Canadian agriculture. This will be done by using the droughts of 2001 and 2002 as an analogue of future climate change stresses due to climate change extremes. This will enable an estimation of current actual adaptive capacity. Many potential adaptation options have been suggested for use in impact and adaptation assessment, but little work has been done to list and organizing actual adaptation options available and implemented. This project builds on previous research by this team, wherein the drought impacts of 2001 were examined in some detail and a preliminary examination of adaptations strategies was completed. Due to limited data and literature at the time of the project, 2002 was not examined as extensively. Also, the work provided only preliminary research regarding adaptation. Therefore, much of the research in the current project will focus on the 2002 drought year, and a more comprehensive and quantitative assessment of the 2001 and 2002 drought years as compared to past droughts is also planned.

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

Farm-level adaptation to multiple risks: climate change and other concerns

This study's purpose is to assess the prospects for farm-level adaptation to climate change and other risks in Canadian agriculture. Focusing on the lower Fraser Valley, BC, Manitoba, and southwestern Ontario, the main objectives are: 1) conceptualize and empirically assess the place and the interaction of climate related risks relative to other risks of production, marketing, and finance in Canadian agriculture; 2) assess the suitability of conventional farm-level climate change adaptation options in Canadian agriculture given other sources of risk, and; 3) develop a revised inventory of farm-level options for adapting to climate and other risks in Canadian agriculture.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Full Report Location: Link available