36 record(s) found.

An Evaluation of Impact Assessment Procedures

This study examined whether the choice of models and modelling methods affects the results of agricultural impact assessments. Using statistical tests, the researchers concluded that the choice of downscaling, land suitability, and crop yield models does not unduly influence the results of impact assessments.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Variability and Change on the Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability of Complex Flood Protection Systems

The impact of climate variability and change on the effectiveness of large-scale flood protection systems was measured against system variability, resiliency and vulnerability in this project. Adaptation strategies to maintain efficient flood protection in light of climate-induced changes are addressed.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Assessment of Climate Change and Impacts on Soil Moisture and Drought on the Prairies

Using temperature and precipitation projections from a range of climate change scenarios, the researchers found that future soil moisture levels would be the same or higher than present day values across the Prairie Provinces. Seeding dates for spring wheat would be advanced, and the growing season would be accelerated. There exists the possibility for increased production in this region.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Vulnerability thresholds and adaptation options to climate change risks in the agri-food sector

The objectives of this study are to identify key climate-related vulnerabilities for the agri-food systems in Ontario and the Prairies and assess adaptation options for managing the identified climate change risks. Time series analyses will be conducted to examine, among other things, whether the variables have exceeded thresholds of the system (e.g. level of moisture deficit beyond which production is threatened). Data on production, income, and payouts (insurance etc.) will be compared to the climatic time series to test for evidence that the climatic extremes are reflected in the production and economic losses. The adaptation analysis will focus on the prospects for and constraints on existing management practices and progress to deal with climate change risks.

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

Prediction of expected impacts of climate change on grasshopper abundance and species composition in the Canadian Prairies

Change climate could result in increases of some species of grasshoppers, which are favoured by early spring, warm summer weather, dry conditions, and mild winters. The project will examine the impacts of temperature, moisture and flooding on grasshopper populations. It will also look at the impacts of changes in grasshopper activity on crops and rangeland production systems for the Canadian Prairies. Anticipation of the characteristics of increased grasshopper problems will allow better formulation of a management plan to control damage without unacceptable crop loss or excessive use of chemical insecticides.

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

Effects of Climate Change on Migratory Birds

Researchers reviewed literature to produce an annotated bibliography of recent scientific papers and reports on the potential impacts of climate change on birds. The bibliography focused on (1) the climatic variables to which birds have been found to respond, and (2) the most common responses that birds have been found to show to those changes. Climatic variables most commonly identified as influencing bird responses include increases in air and sea surface temperature, sea level rise, drying of wetlands, and sea ice variability. Much of the literature correlated recent advances in breeding with warmer air temperatures in the spring.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Full Report Location: Link available

Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture/Forestry Land Use Patterns: Developing and Applying an Integrated Impact Assessment Model

In this project, researchers developed an integrated assessment model to predict how agriculture and forestry land use could change over time in response to alternative scenarios of climate change, ecosystem change and economic change. The project also involved estimating the impacts of climate change on forest land values and agriculture at the national level. Results suggest that while all regions of Canada would benefit from climate change, the relative gain would be greatest for the Prairies and lowest for coastal regions. In absolute terms Ontario would experience the largest gains. Forest land values are generally expected to change in the same direction as agriculture land values.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Enhancing Water Supply Infrastructure Investment Planning Practices
for a Changing Climate

The aim of this project is to improve practices in investment in infrastructure to protect water supply systems from changes in hydrology and consumptive patterns resulting from climate change.

Project Status: In Progress

The Implications of Climate Change for Canada´s Boundary and
Transboundary Water Management

This project will analyze the potential impacts of climate change on boundary and transboundary water basins between Canada and the United States and between provinces and territories. It will also examine existing water-related agreements and procedures and assess their ability to adapt to climate change.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Full Report Location: Link available

Impacts of climate change and adaptation of a management strategy for the Lake Winnipeg Fishery

Temperature changes of the extent predicted by global circulation models may directly influence the development and success of aquatic organisms. Climate also appears to be the single most important factor controlling biodiversity in Canadian lakes and strongly influences the distribution of aquatic organisms on broad geographic scales. The complex interactions with local environmental disturbance factors must be taken into account when studying the effects of global warming on fish. The researchers will develop a report describing the potential responses of the Lake Winnipeg fishery to scenarios of future climate change. This information is important to the reformulation of fishery management strategies as an adaptation to global climate change.

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

Adaptation Strategies for Oil and Gas Infrastructure

Changes in the duration, amount and intensity of precipitation have the potential to increase ground movement and slope instability. This soil movement could, in turn, threaten the structural integrity of linear infrastructure, including pipelines, roads and railroads, by placing additional strain on these structures. In this study, researchers examined the integrity of pipelines in western Canada by using a modelling approach to predict the effect of changes in precipitation on slope movement rates. Results allowed the identification of critical thresholds that will help industry and government regulators plan for potential impacts of climate change.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Full Report Location: Link available

National Transportation Impacts and Adaptation Workshop

Transport Canada held a two day workshop that: (1) discussed the potential and current, short and long term, climate change impacts on transportation infrastructure and operations; (2) facilitated network development; and (3) gathered stakeholder input to assist the assessment of priority areas of research to aid decision-makers. While uncertainties remain, especially in predicting local effects, sensitivities and vulnerabilities were identified. The need for developing inter-jurisdictional mechanisms for establishing priorities, coordinating activities, and sharing resources, is apparent; suggested approaches included a pilot program in the territories where adaptation strategies are most urgently needed. In attendance were sixty transportation professionals and climate change experts. Climate change adaptation should be integrated into federal, provincial and territorial government business planning.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Climate change damage tolerant transportation infrastructure in Manitoba

Given that the design life of many components of the transportation system is in excess of 50 years, it is important to investigate the possible scenarios for climate change and to propose adaptation measures to minimize the impact on the transportation system and the Canadian economy. Fundamental climate-based research on the engineering properties of transportation infrastructure assets is necessary now in order to maximize cost effectiveness of future design efforts and implementation strategies. Climate change may have significant impacts on the condition and operation of surface transportation infrastructure in Manitoba. The current replacement value of transportation infrastructure is estimated at $6.6 billion. The purpose of this research is two fold: i) to assess changes in the vulnerability of key components of infrastructure associated with increased flood risks in Southern Manitoba and further degradation of permafrost in Northern Manitoba due to climate changes, and ii) to produce possible guidelines for the maintenance, rehabilitation and reconstruction (MRR) of existing facilities which incorporate climate-induced loads.

Project Status: In Progress

Climate change and Canadian road transport: assessing impacts and adaptations

There is limited information available on the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the road freight system to changes in weather and climate. To address this knowledge gap, researchers will conduct a, quantitative assessment of road transport's vulnerability to climate conditions (both chronic and acute) as well as an in-depth evaluation of existing management and operations. The project will provide a comparative analysis of current approaches to dealing with climate variability in various regions of Canada as it affects the road transport system. This project has four main objectives: 1) To understand the historical pattern of climate and weather events affecting the road transportation system across Canada, focussing on the TransCanada Corridor, other major corridors and border crossings; 2)To identify and understand the operational effects and management approaches associated with current climate and weather events with an emphasis on critical vulnerability thresholds; 3) to establish the net socio-economic impacts of the operational effects and management approaches identified above; and4) To apply climate change scenarios and explore the socio-economic implications of various adaptation strategies.

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

Afforestation of Marginal Agricultural Land

This study determined the location, extent and forest potential of soils that are currently marginal for farming, and assessed the socioeconomic impacts of converting those areas to forest production. Researchers applied geographic information systems (GIS), ground-truthing, and socio-economic data to complete the analysis.

Project Status: Complete

Climate Change Impacts on Productivity and Health of Aspen Forests in the Western Canadian Interior

Trembling aspen is important for wildlife, recreation and the forest industry in western Canada. Researchers analysed tree rings from 72 aspen stands across the Prairie Provinces to determine how climate variation, insects and other factors have affected aspen growth and health. They found that insect defoliation and drought were the most important factors driving year to year variation in aspen productivity. This research will help in understanding the response of aspen forests to future climate change.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Full Report Location: Link available

Projecting Canadian Forest Fire Impacts in a Changing Climate: Laying the Foundation for the Development of Sound Adaptation Strategies

This project examined the relationship between fire activity and climate in Canada over the past 50 years, and evaluated how an increase in the number and severity of fires would affect forest communities, timber supply, and carbon budgets. Researchers used high-resolution regional climate models to generate scenarios of future forest fire danger. They found that the seasonal fire severity rating would increase in much of Canada under the projected impacts of climate changes.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Impacts of Climate Change on Permafrost in Canada

In this project, researchers examined potential changes in the temperature and extent of permafrost in Canada due to projected climate warming. This was done by applying a climate-permafrost model within a geographical information system (GIS). They found that under a 2xCO2 warming scenario, total permafrost area would be reduced by about 28%, resulting in most of the western mainland, all of northern Quebec and the Mackenzie Valley becoming permafrost-free. Cold, stable permafrost would be confined largely to the Arctic Archipelago.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Susceptibility of Canadian Forests to a changing fire regime: defining and costing sound fire management adaptation strategies

This study will address the susceptibility of Canada's forests to a changing fire regime as a result of climate change. Knowing the location and the level of susceptibility of Canadian forests to fire will greatly aid in the development of adaptation strategies. An altered fire regime could have important consequences for fire management agencies and for silvicultural practices that are being developed to emulate natural disturbances. In this study, researchers will determine the impact of a changing climate on the level of fire activity in Canadian forests, estimate the economic effect and impact of the altered fire activity on fire management agencies and develop a range of adaptation strategies that balance economic costs and environmental impacts for fire management agencies to address the altered fire activity.

Project Status: In Progress

A multi-centre Approach to Investigate the Health Impacts of Extreme Heat and Cold Events due to Climate Change and Climate Variation

In order to assess the effects of extreme heat and cold periods on the health of the population, it is necessary to understand the relationship between health and climate under current and past conditions. This project will attempt to assess the prevalence of illness, injury and death as a result of extreme heat and cold events through the collection and evaluation of administrative health data in the form of mortality, hospital admissions, emergency room, physician billing files, and trauma data from different sentinel health centres across Canada. These centres include: Vancouver, Calgary, Winnipeg, Quebec City, Ottawa and Halifax. Linking the regional health data to synoptic weather classifications of extreme heat and cold events over an approximate 10 year period, will provide new knowledge regarding the vulnerability of certain populations and/or regions and establish the need for a surveillance system to monitor associated health impacts to climate variability. This information can then be used for more accurate assessments of health effects of climate change in Canada, and provide policy and decision-makers with a scientific basis for adaptation measures needed.

Project Status: In Progress

Yield Variability under Climate Change and Adaptive Crop Management Scenarios

Using a simulation model that integrates major biophysical processes and soil and crop management practices, the researchers examined the impacts of climate change on crop yields across Canada. Results indicate that under a 2xCO2 climate change scenario, yields of soybean, potato and winter wheat would generally increase, while yields of corn would tend to decrease. The role of adaptations in reducing losses and increasing gains was also demonstrated.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Municipal Infrastructure Risk Project (Across Canada)

Researchers conducted interviews in six municipalities across the country to better understand the barriers to climate change adaptation at the municipal level. These interviews revealed that financial constraints, attitudes of the public and council members, and the nature of municipal politics were key factors limiting the consideration of climate change in infrastructure decisions. For example, municipalities were not comfortable undertaking long-term financial and infrastructure planning without guarantees of funds from provincial government. In addition, priorities are set, and final decisions are made by council members, many of whom may not consider climate change to be a priority issue within their three-year term of office. Indeed, lack of awareness of the importance of climate change issues among both the public and councillors, was an often-cited barrier to adaptation. Another significant constraint was insufficient municipal staff time and resources to plan for future climate change impacts. To begin to overcome these barriers, researchers recommend increasing awareness and understanding of climate change, and providing municipal staff with detailed information on potential climate change impacts on infrastructure. Improving relationships and communication between scientific researchers and municipal staff was also suggested, as were various ideas for dealing with financial barriers (e.g., funding opportunities).

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Full Report Location: Link available

Water Sector: Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change

Regional workshops were used to identify broad scale vulnerabilities in the water resources sector across Canada. The resulting report addresses the nature and reliability of the new generation climate models; regional vulnerabilities for the major regions of Canada; and outlines an adaptation strategy for water management.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Adaptation of Prairie Cities: The Role of Climate

Researchers suggest that there is a need for more comprehensive impacts and adaptation strategies in Prairie cities. At present, there is a lack of knowledge and awareness of potential impacts and adaptation strategies, and generally poor incorporation of weather and climate information in decision-making. This results in cities on the Prairies being characterized by a high vulnerability to future climatic changes, such as increased temperatures, lower water levels, and more frequent extreme events.  To decrease vulnerability, researchers recommended the implementation of no-regrets adaptation strategies, improved communication between scientists, decision-makers and the public, and increased budget flexibility to allow departments to incorporate climate change into long-term planning. For example, utility and transportation services have an excellent opportunity to account for future climate change during routine upgrades and maintenance. Through this strategy, small increases in present-day investments have great potential to reduce the need for expensive repairs in the future.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Impacts of climate change on grazing capacity of native grasslands in the Canadian Prairies

This study will provide improved understanding of the probable impacts of climate change over the next half-century on grazing capacity in rangelands of the Canadian prairies. The objectives are to develop a more definitive assessment of the impact of climate change on grazing capacity of native grasslands in the Prairie provinces (considering the whole range of climates and soil types which support native grassland), and to use this impact assessment as a basis for investigating adaptations that will be required in the livestock industry. As part of this investigation, stakeholders will be surveyed to determine the role of grazing capacity information in their operations. Understanding of the potential impacts of climate change is important because of the significance of range grazing in the economy of this region, the potential for changes in the ecological basis for grazing under climatic change, and the expanding role of grazing as drier parts of the region become less suitable for arable agriculture.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Effect of Regional Climate Warming on Forest Management in Boreal Forest Ecosystems using Butterflies as Indicators of Phenological Change and Shifts of Species Geographic Range

Efforts are underway to develop an integrated climatic / biophysical approach based on historic databases from the region and measurement of key indicators flora and fauna. The importance of climate change prediction and preparedness in the forest management planning process is further heightened by the region's geographic location (an area of North America predicted to be one of the most affected by climate change phenomena), the presence of several distinct ecozones and the overall potential of the region from a development perspective. This project will be one of the first of its type to be placed into the context of a broad scope and long term environmental planning process driven by multi-stakeholder groups and encompassing a wide range of environmental assessment techniques and processes.

Project Status: Complete

Adaptation as Resilience Building: a Policy Study of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation on the Canadian Prairies

The project focuses primarily on adaptation, through an examination of why some prairie regions are resilient to existing climate stress, what existing policies and management practices promote or impede resilience to existing climate stress, how climate resilience can be increased by strengthening adaptive capacity through targeted policy intervention, which prairie regions may be highly vulnerable to future climate change, and which policy interventions are most important in these regions. The project includes a vulnerability analysis (integrating historic climate variability, and socio-economic data to identify potential vulnerability “hotspots” for detailed study), a resilience analysis, (farm and community-level appraisals of existing adaptive capacity and its role in building resilience to climate change; a synthesis of current and planned policies that will build resilience to climate change), and an adaptation priority analysis (integrating future climate scenarios with crop and land use models to identify regions where building resilience to climate change may have highest priority).

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

An Assessment of the Vulnerability of the Boreal Forest

This study brought together the results of previous research on the impacts of climate change on the western Canadian boreal forest and forest industry. Researchers reviewed literature, assessed knowledge gaps, and provided an integrated picture of the overall sensitivity and vulnerability of selected eco-districts to varying precipitation levels.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

A Comparative Assessment of the Capacity of Canadian Rural Communities to Adapt to Uncertain Futures

Changes in ecosystems supporting communities in coastal Newfoundland and British Columbia, central Canada and northern Saskatchewan have already occurred and climate change in conjunction with other socio-economic and political factors will continue to effect livelihoods in these rural communities. This comparative assessment will employ a human vulnerability-security research framework to assess each community's capacity to cope with and, if necessary, adapt to uncertain futures including climatic change.

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

Climate and climate change vulnerability assessment of northern renewable resource based communities (NRRBC)

The project will combine biological modeling and socioeconomic analysis to develop an integrated assessment approach for assessment of factors contributing to the vulnerability of renewable resource based communities in Canada. The assessment methodology will be tested on two Canadian communities. An important and relatively unique dimension of this project is that the analysis of impacts and community capacities will be undertaken at scales relevant to community decision makers (i.e. relatively high spatial resolution compared to most vulnerability assessments). Through partnership with the Model Forest program communities will be engaged in the project and examination of the results.

Project Status: In Progress

Climate Change Planning Tools for First Nations: Adapting to Climate Variability and Change

This project will develop user-friendly, adaptable First Nation climate change planning tools, through participatory research and partnerships with a First Nation in Manitoba and another in Saskatchewan. The tools will focus on process and decisions for planning, as opposed to specific impacts but will use specific examples and scenarios for illustration. The tools will take the form of a series of guidebooks and will include both western and indigenous approaches and information.

Project Status: In Progress

Climate Change and Seasonality in Canadian Outdoor Recreation and Tourism

This study focuses on evaluating how climate change will effect outdoor activities such as alpine skiing, snowmobiling, golfing and camping; vital parts of the recreation and tourism industry. Researchers will assess the risks and opportunities climate change poses for these activities in selected locations across Canada, assess the implications for intra- and inter-regional competitive relationships and tourism product development and explore supply and demand-side adaptations to altered recreational season lengths.

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

Climate Change Impacts on Winter Roads and Lake/River Ice Conditions – Effects on First Nations Communities in Northern, Central and Eastern Manitoba and their Capacity to Adapt

This project will document socio-economic impacts of changes in the winter road season and lake river ice conditions in First Nation communities. The researchers will travel to five communities across northern, central, and eastern Manitoba interested in sharing information about the socio-economic impacts of shortened and unreliable winter road seasons and degradation of river / lake ice conditions on their communities. The project team will survey individuals from various organizations including universities, governments, First Nations organizations, transportation and road construction companies, and the Northern Store to assess their capacity to deal with anticipated impacts of climate change, and to determine if they have developed adaptation strategies to deal with these impacts.

Project Status: In Progress

Transient simulations of climate change impacts on Canada´s forests 2000-2100: Vulnerability and implications for forestry and conservation

Canada's forests are of critical importance to our national heritage as well as to our economy. Globally our forests contribute to climatic stability, the water cycle and the sequestration of carbon. Climate change threatens these ecosystem services. In this study researchers will assess (1) the impacts of a range of plausible climate change scenarios on the distribution and composition of Canada's forests, and (2) the implications for forestry and conservation interests.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Farm-level adaptation to multiple risks: climate change and other concerns

This study's purpose is to assess the prospects for farm-level adaptation to climate change and other risks in Canadian agriculture. Focusing on the lower Fraser Valley, BC, Manitoba, and southwestern Ontario, the main objectives are: 1) conceptualize and empirically assess the place and the interaction of climate related risks relative to other risks of production, marketing, and finance in Canadian agriculture; 2) assess the suitability of conventional farm-level climate change adaptation options in Canadian agriculture given other sources of risk, and; 3) develop a revised inventory of farm-level options for adapting to climate and other risks in Canadian agriculture.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Full Report Location: Link available

Climate change and its potential impacts on seasonal weight limits and trucking costs on Prairie region highways

This project will characterize potentially significant economic impacts that could result from climate change-induced modifications to the seasonal weight limit restrictions applied to commercial truck operations on Prairie region highways. Impacts on rural agricultural and industrial activities in the region are of particular interest. Researchers will produce an evaluation of economic benefits and losses, an evaluation of the economic impacts expected by changing the seasonal restrictions on regulations and recommendations of favourable methods for adapting to the implementation of the regulations under climate change.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available