40 record(s) found.

An Evaluation of Impact Assessment Procedures

This study examined whether the choice of models and modelling methods affects the results of agricultural impact assessments. Using statistical tests, the researchers concluded that the choice of downscaling, land suitability, and crop yield models does not unduly influence the results of impact assessments.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Impact of Climate Change on River Water Temperature and Fish Growth

Using 30 years of data, researchers examined the relationships between climate, hydrologic parameters, and the fork length of juvenile salmon in the Miramichi River. Fork length is an indicator of growth, which also affects competition, predation, smoltification, and marine survival of salmon. In association with the warming observed over the time period studied, fork length of juvenile salmon parr was found to have declined significantly. As such, researchers suggest that future climate change will adversely affect the growth of juvenile salmon in the Miramichi freshwater portion of their life cycle, which will increase juvenile mortality rates.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Full Report Location:

Link available
Link available

Preliminary Evaluation of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Ground Water Resources in Eastern Canada

Researchers studied the impacts of climatic changes on the groundwater recharge in Quebec and the Maritimes. Data from 95 piezometric stations, 104 stream gauging stations and 65 meteorological stations spanning from 10 to 100 year periods were integrated in a user-friendly database. Objectives included trend detection for the recharge and search for index related to climatic data that would allow an improvement in the groundwater resource management in areas sensitive to recharge changes. Preliminary results from three sites show that recharge changes could likely be estimated using hydrologic data (baseflow), instead of available piezometric data whose time series are often incomplete and too short. Results also show that precipitation seems to have increased during the past 30 years, while the reverse trend is observed for recharge, despite the fact that oscillations in recharge and precipitation are synchronous.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Impact of Climate Change on the Risk of Winter Damage to Agriculture Perennial Crops

This study examined the impacts of climate change on winter damage of perennial forage crops and fruit trees in eastern Canada. Researchers found that warmer winters would harm perennial forage crops by reducing the amount of protective snow cover and increasing the occurrence of above-freezing temperatures, while higher fall temperatures would decrease the cold hardiness of the plants. Although deciduous fruit trees would also suffer from loss of cold hardiness due to above-freezing temperatures, they may benefit from a decrease in both cold stress and late spring frosts.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Agricultural Adaptation in Atlantic Canada

Researchers applied projections from climate scenarios to investigate the impacts of climate change on agricultural yields in eastern Canada. Models suggest that warmer and longer growing seasons would increase yields of grain corn and soybean. Agricultural production would be expected to shift to crops that are better adapted to warmer climates, although non-climatic factors would continue to influence crop decision-making.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Impacts of Sea-Level Rise and Climate Change on the Coastal Zone of Southeastern New Brunswick

This project will quantify impacts of climate change and more specifically sea level rise, storm surge and coastal erosion on the Gulf of St. Lawrence coastal zone of southeastern New Brunswick, in support of sustainable management, community resilience and the development of adaptation strategies. Researchers will study an area of the Gulf Shore of New Brunswick from Kouchibouguac National Park to Little Shemogue Bay. This area of the NB Gulf coast faces increasing pressures of coastal development and is important for ecosystem sustainability. This work will provide information for the development of appropriate adaptation strategies.

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

Impact of Climate Change on Birds in Eastern Canada

This study had two components. The first component studied changes in spring migration dates of birds wintering in Central and South America between 1962-2000. Researchers found that the arrival times of most species were significantly related to annual variation in temperature, with most species arriving earlier in warm springs. The ability of many migratory birds in North America to adjust their migration rate in response to temperature suggests they may be adapted to cope with at least moderate changes in climate. The second component analyzed the timing of breeding in tree swallows on the north shore of Lake Erie. Data indicated that tree swallows started laying their eggs earlier when the weather was warm in early May and later when it was cold. This data will be useful for analysis of the impacts of future climate change on bird migration and reproduction.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Full Report Location:

Link available
Link available

Effects of Climate Change on Migratory Birds

Researchers reviewed literature to produce an annotated bibliography of recent scientific papers and reports on the potential impacts of climate change on birds. The bibliography focused on (1) the climatic variables to which birds have been found to respond, and (2) the most common responses that birds have been found to show to those changes. Climatic variables most commonly identified as influencing bird responses include increases in air and sea surface temperature, sea level rise, drying of wetlands, and sea ice variability. Much of the literature correlated recent advances in breeding with warmer air temperatures in the spring.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Full Report Location: Link available

Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture/Forestry Land Use Patterns: Developing and Applying an Integrated Impact Assessment Model

In this project, researchers developed an integrated assessment model to predict how agriculture and forestry land use could change over time in response to alternative scenarios of climate change, ecosystem change and economic change. The project also involved estimating the impacts of climate change on forest land values and agriculture at the national level. Results suggest that while all regions of Canada would benefit from climate change, the relative gain would be greatest for the Prairies and lowest for coastal regions. In absolute terms Ontario would experience the largest gains. Forest land values are generally expected to change in the same direction as agriculture land values.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Enhancing Water Supply Infrastructure Investment Planning Practices
for a Changing Climate

The aim of this project is to improve practices in investment in infrastructure to protect water supply systems from changes in hydrology and consumptive patterns resulting from climate change.

Project Status: In Progress

The Implications of Climate Change for Canada´s Boundary and
Transboundary Water Management

This project will analyze the potential impacts of climate change on boundary and transboundary water basins between Canada and the United States and between provinces and territories. It will also examine existing water-related agreements and procedures and assess their ability to adapt to climate change.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Full Report Location: Link available

Adaptation Strategies for Oil and Gas Infrastructure

Changes in the duration, amount and intensity of precipitation have the potential to increase ground movement and slope instability. This soil movement could, in turn, threaten the structural integrity of linear infrastructure, including pipelines, roads and railroads, by placing additional strain on these structures. In this study, researchers examined the integrity of pipelines in western Canada by using a modelling approach to predict the effect of changes in precipitation on slope movement rates. Results allowed the identification of critical thresholds that will help industry and government regulators plan for potential impacts of climate change.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Full Report Location: Link available

National Transportation Impacts and Adaptation Workshop

Transport Canada held a two day workshop that: (1) discussed the potential and current, short and long term, climate change impacts on transportation infrastructure and operations; (2) facilitated network development; and (3) gathered stakeholder input to assist the assessment of priority areas of research to aid decision-makers. While uncertainties remain, especially in predicting local effects, sensitivities and vulnerabilities were identified. The need for developing inter-jurisdictional mechanisms for establishing priorities, coordinating activities, and sharing resources, is apparent; suggested approaches included a pilot program in the territories where adaptation strategies are most urgently needed. In attendance were sixty transportation professionals and climate change experts. Climate change adaptation should be integrated into federal, provincial and territorial government business planning.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Climate change and Canadian road transport: assessing impacts and adaptations

There is limited information available on the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the road freight system to changes in weather and climate. To address this knowledge gap, researchers will conduct a, quantitative assessment of road transport's vulnerability to climate conditions (both chronic and acute) as well as an in-depth evaluation of existing management and operations. The project will provide a comparative analysis of current approaches to dealing with climate variability in various regions of Canada as it affects the road transport system. This project has four main objectives: 1) To understand the historical pattern of climate and weather events affecting the road transportation system across Canada, focussing on the TransCanada Corridor, other major corridors and border crossings; 2)To identify and understand the operational effects and management approaches associated with current climate and weather events with an emphasis on critical vulnerability thresholds; 3) to establish the net socio-economic impacts of the operational effects and management approaches identified above; and4) To apply climate change scenarios and explore the socio-economic implications of various adaptation strategies.

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

Afforestation of Marginal Agricultural Land

This study determined the location, extent and forest potential of soils that are currently marginal for farming, and assessed the socioeconomic impacts of converting those areas to forest production. Researchers applied geographic information systems (GIS), ground-truthing, and socio-economic data to complete the analysis.

Project Status: Complete

Projecting Canadian Forest Fire Impacts in a Changing Climate: Laying the Foundation for the Development of Sound Adaptation Strategies

This project examined the relationship between fire activity and climate in Canada over the past 50 years, and evaluated how an increase in the number and severity of fires would affect forest communities, timber supply, and carbon budgets. Researchers used high-resolution regional climate models to generate scenarios of future forest fire danger. They found that the seasonal fire severity rating would increase in much of Canada under the projected impacts of climate changes.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Using Winter Climatic Data to Estimate Spring Crown Dieback in Yellow Birch: a Case Study to Project the Extent and Locations of Pas and Future Birch Decline

Researchers used winter climatic data to investigate the impact of winter thaws and late spring frosts on yellow birch, a tree common to Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic region. Researchers found a strong temporal and spatial relationship between extended winter thaws and spring crown diebacks and decline. These thaws have increased over the last 30 years. Future climate changes are expected to result in even more frequent and prolonged winter thaws, and therefore a potential worsening of birch dieback and decline.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Impacts of Climate Change on Permafrost in Canada

In this project, researchers examined potential changes in the temperature and extent of permafrost in Canada due to projected climate warming. This was done by applying a climate-permafrost model within a geographical information system (GIS). They found that under a 2xCO2 warming scenario, total permafrost area would be reduced by about 28%, resulting in most of the western mainland, all of northern Quebec and the Mackenzie Valley becoming permafrost-free. Cold, stable permafrost would be confined largely to the Arctic Archipelago.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Effects of a Warmer Ocean Climate Under a Doubled CO2 – Atmosphere on the Reproduction and Distribution of Snow Crab in Eastern Canada

Researchers found that small changes in temperature could have significant impacts on snow crab reproduction, development and distribution in Eastern Canada. This is especially true for snow crab populations located on the Eastern Scotian Shelf and the Grand Bank of Newfoundland. Changes in water temperature were found to impact the survivorship and long-term growth of juveniles, influence the distribution of different age-classes of snow crab, and affect the amount of time that females incubate their eggs.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location:

Link available
Link available

Susceptibility of Canadian Forests to a changing fire regime: defining and costing sound fire management adaptation strategies

This study will address the susceptibility of Canada's forests to a changing fire regime as a result of climate change. Knowing the location and the level of susceptibility of Canadian forests to fire will greatly aid in the development of adaptation strategies. An altered fire regime could have important consequences for fire management agencies and for silvicultural practices that are being developed to emulate natural disturbances. In this study, researchers will determine the impact of a changing climate on the level of fire activity in Canadian forests, estimate the economic effect and impact of the altered fire activity on fire management agencies and develop a range of adaptation strategies that balance economic costs and environmental impacts for fire management agencies to address the altered fire activity.

Project Status: In Progress

A multi-centre Approach to Investigate the Health Impacts of Extreme Heat and Cold Events due to Climate Change and Climate Variation

In order to assess the effects of extreme heat and cold periods on the health of the population, it is necessary to understand the relationship between health and climate under current and past conditions. This project will attempt to assess the prevalence of illness, injury and death as a result of extreme heat and cold events through the collection and evaluation of administrative health data in the form of mortality, hospital admissions, emergency room, physician billing files, and trauma data from different sentinel health centres across Canada. These centres include: Vancouver, Calgary, Winnipeg, Quebec City, Ottawa and Halifax. Linking the regional health data to synoptic weather classifications of extreme heat and cold events over an approximate 10 year period, will provide new knowledge regarding the vulnerability of certain populations and/or regions and establish the need for a surveillance system to monitor associated health impacts to climate variability. This information can then be used for more accurate assessments of health effects of climate change in Canada, and provide policy and decision-makers with a scientific basis for adaptation measures needed.

Project Status: In Progress

The Fate of Salt Marshes in Atlantic Canada

By comparing past rates of accumulation of marsh sediments with tide gauge records, researchers determined to what degree four salt marshes in Atlantic Canada would be threatened by increases in sea level associated with climate change. The sedimentation rates for each marsh, the estimated reduction in deposits over time, and the degree of variability within and among regions were established.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Yield Variability under Climate Change and Adaptive Crop Management Scenarios

Using a simulation model that integrates major biophysical processes and soil and crop management practices, the researchers examined the impacts of climate change on crop yields across Canada. Results indicate that under a 2xCO2 climate change scenario, yields of soybean, potato and winter wheat would generally increase, while yields of corn would tend to decrease. The role of adaptations in reducing losses and increasing gains was also demonstrated.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Climate change and thermal sensitivity of commercial marine species

Climate changes have the potential to affect coastal and marine ecosystems with impacts on the spatial distribution of species important to commercial fisheries. The waters of Atlantic Canada include the northern or southern limit of many species and observations of temporary northward shifts of southern species have been reported during short-term periods of climate warming in the last century. This study will compile information on the thermal sensitivities for various life stages and pathogens of a selection of economically important marine species and identify critical thresholds in their life stages and survival. The information will be synthesized to demonstrate the most vulnerable characteristics of each species in terms of thermal parameters. The focus will be on near-shore waters of eastern Canada, including species with their southern or northern limit in or near Canadian waters. The investigators have developed a list of 33 species to study that includes invertebrate and vertebrate fauna, as well as seaweeds that are harvested.

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

Municipal Infrastructure Risk Project (Across Canada)

Researchers conducted interviews in six municipalities across the country to better understand the barriers to climate change adaptation at the municipal level. These interviews revealed that financial constraints, attitudes of the public and council members, and the nature of municipal politics were key factors limiting the consideration of climate change in infrastructure decisions. For example, municipalities were not comfortable undertaking long-term financial and infrastructure planning without guarantees of funds from provincial government. In addition, priorities are set, and final decisions are made by council members, many of whom may not consider climate change to be a priority issue within their three-year term of office. Indeed, lack of awareness of the importance of climate change issues among both the public and councillors, was an often-cited barrier to adaptation. Another significant constraint was insufficient municipal staff time and resources to plan for future climate change impacts. To begin to overcome these barriers, researchers recommend increasing awareness and understanding of climate change, and providing municipal staff with detailed information on potential climate change impacts on infrastructure. Improving relationships and communication between scientific researchers and municipal staff was also suggested, as were various ideas for dealing with financial barriers (e.g., funding opportunities).

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Full Report Location: Link available

Water Sector: Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change

Regional workshops were used to identify broad scale vulnerabilities in the water resources sector across Canada. The resulting report addresses the nature and reliability of the new generation climate models; regional vulnerabilities for the major regions of Canada; and outlines an adaptation strategy for water management.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Climate Change Impacts on Low-Flow Characteristics of New Brunswick Rivers and Adaptation Strategies for Instream Flow Needs

The objectives of this study include evaluating low-flow characteristics in New Brunswick and associated long-term trends; quantifying potential impacts of climate change on runoff, low flows, water availability and aquatic resources; and identifying potential impacts of reduced flow on irrigation, drinking water supply and industrial water usage.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Climate change impacts on run-timing of Atlantic salmon in eastern Canada and adaptation of in-season models and management to improve resource access opportunities

This study focuses on the Miramichi River, NB, which has the largest Atlantic salmon run in Eastern North America. Its goal is to provide a scientific basis for the Miramichi Watershed Management Committee to evaluate and develop management strategies for adapting fisheries activities to protect and enhance the resource. Minimum water flow in the Miramichi River has significantly declined over the last three decades, and future climate change could adversely affect Atlantic salmon by modifying their time of return to rivers as well as accessibility to headwater spawning areas. This project will addresses a gap in our understanding of the vulnerability and sensitivity of marine fisheries to climate variability and change, in this case specifically related to the future run-timing and abundance of Atlantic salmon and the fisheries management strategies occurring within the Mirimichi River system.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Full Report Location: Link available

Assessment of the Capacity of the Emergency Response and Public Health Systems in Atlantic Coastal Communities to Cope with and Adapt to Extreme Weather Events Exacerbated by a Changing Climate

The goal of this project is to assess the capacity of coastal management systems in two Atlantic coastal communities to cope with extreme weather events exacerbated by a changing climate. The project involves the design and delivery of a simulation exercise involving key participants from two coastal management systems – one responsible for Channel-Port-aux-Basques area in south western Newfoundland, the other for the Shédiac-Cap-Pelé area in south eastern New Brunswick. The project will engage participants in a functional simulation exercise to explore how the coastal management systems manage risks associated with extreme coastal weather events, how planned and unplanned actions influence outcomes in coastal communities, and the system's capacity to deliver appropriate responses to coastal zone challenges.

Project Status: In Progress

Management of Migratory Songbird Populations in the Face of Changing Climates

Weather plays a critical role in the daily decisions made by passerine birds with respect to migration. Individuals tend to migrate when there are tailwinds, or at least when there are particular conditions of temperature, pressure and humidity that tend to produce tailwinds. Under some climate change scenarios we expect changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in the North Atlantic. It can be surmised that, given that songbirds rely on particular weather events for successful migration, and given that they are vulnerable to storm events, changes to weather patterns, and increased variability in weather, may increase the overall vulnerability of some populations of passerine birds. Determining the seriousness of this threat is a critical component of the management of songbird populations. This project will link together extensive current knowledge of the relationship between migration, stopover ecology, weather, and predicted changes to weather under climate change scenarios to examine the extent of the vulnerability of songbirds to climate change, and its potential impacts on the passerine species that breed in Atlantic Canada. The approach of this project is to develop vulnerability profiles for species or groups of species. These profiles will guide management decisions for conservation in the face of uncertain environments.

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

An Evaluation of Salt Marsh Restoration as an Adaptation Strategy to Future Climate Change and Sea Level Rise in Maritime Canada

The rate of current sea level rise in Atlantic Canada may double by the end of this century. Large tracts of land in this region are presently protected from saltwater inundation by dykes. As climate changes and sea levels rise, there will be two options for society to consider: (i) adapt by raising and reinforcing dykes, or (ii) adapt by restoring dyked lands to salt marsh. This project will proceed in three phases: (i) an assessment of local stakeholder opinion and existing conditions will be completed before restoration work begins; (ii) changes in key geomorphic and ecological variables will be documented before, during, and after the restoration; and (iii) local stakeholder opinion will be re-assessed and lessons learned documented once the restoration is underway.

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

A Comparative Assessment of the Capacity of Canadian Rural Communities to Adapt to Uncertain Futures

Changes in ecosystems supporting communities in coastal Newfoundland and British Columbia, central Canada and northern Saskatchewan have already occurred and climate change in conjunction with other socio-economic and political factors will continue to effect livelihoods in these rural communities. This comparative assessment will employ a human vulnerability-security research framework to assess each community's capacity to cope with and, if necessary, adapt to uncertain futures including climatic change.

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

Climate and climate change vulnerability assessment of northern renewable resource based communities (NRRBC)

The project will combine biological modeling and socioeconomic analysis to develop an integrated assessment approach for assessment of factors contributing to the vulnerability of renewable resource based communities in Canada. The assessment methodology will be tested on two Canadian communities. An important and relatively unique dimension of this project is that the analysis of impacts and community capacities will be undertaken at scales relevant to community decision makers (i.e. relatively high spatial resolution compared to most vulnerability assessments). Through partnership with the Model Forest program communities will be engaged in the project and examination of the results.

Project Status: In Progress

Government Roles in Climate Change Adaptations for Urban Infrastructure

The purpose of this project is to understand the roles that different levels of government play with regard to climate change adaptation for protection of urban infrastructure. This project will study City of Fredericton infrastructure projects to identify the roles of different levels of government in the management of urban infrastructure. The researchers will attempt to identify the potential for government decision makers at the local through to central level of government to consider climate change adaptation in the development and management of these services.

Project Status: In Progress

Climate Change and Seasonality in Canadian Outdoor Recreation and Tourism

This study focuses on evaluating how climate change will effect outdoor activities such as alpine skiing, snowmobiling, golfing and camping; vital parts of the recreation and tourism industry. Researchers will assess the risks and opportunities climate change poses for these activities in selected locations across Canada, assess the implications for intra- and inter-regional competitive relationships and tourism product development and explore supply and demand-side adaptations to altered recreational season lengths.

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

Policies, governance and building community capacity to adapt to climate change in island and continental coastal zones.  

The primary objective of this project is to evaluate public policies governing coastal zones and the development and management of sanitary infrastructures and local services that take anticipated climate change into account and if the plans currently in place are appropriate. The project will also analyze government measures to determine whether the socio-economic development plans and land use and urban planning of the coastal municipalities or planning commissions take recent and anticipated climate change effects into account.

Project Status: In Progress

Costing the Impacts of Climate Change in Atlantic Canada using Recent Climate-Related Events as Benchmarks

This project will develop a tool for communities to use to examine the likely climate change costs in their own communities. It will develop a methodology for costing recent climate-related events and projecting these costs into the future. This methodology will be tested using the 2005 flooding event for the City of Fredericton as a case study. The research results of this project will provide Fredericton with a costing methodology and applied estimates of recent climate-related events to benchmark future climate change costs.

Project Status: In Progress

Transient simulations of climate change impacts on Canada´s forests 2000-2100: Vulnerability and implications for forestry and conservation

Canada's forests are of critical importance to our national heritage as well as to our economy. Globally our forests contribute to climatic stability, the water cycle and the sequestration of carbon. Climate change threatens these ecosystem services. In this study researchers will assess (1) the impacts of a range of plausible climate change scenarios on the distribution and composition of Canada's forests, and (2) the implications for forestry and conservation interests.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Farm-level adaptation to multiple risks: climate change and other concerns

This study's purpose is to assess the prospects for farm-level adaptation to climate change and other risks in Canadian agriculture. Focusing on the lower Fraser Valley, BC, Manitoba, and southwestern Ontario, the main objectives are: 1) conceptualize and empirically assess the place and the interaction of climate related risks relative to other risks of production, marketing, and finance in Canadian agriculture; 2) assess the suitability of conventional farm-level climate change adaptation options in Canadian agriculture given other sources of risk, and; 3) develop a revised inventory of farm-level options for adapting to climate and other risks in Canadian agriculture.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Full Report Location: Link available

Modelling potential changes in demand for freight transportation in Atlantic Canada due to climate change impacts

The demand for freight transportation in Atlantic Canada is predominantly generated by the manufacturing, agriculture, forestry, energy, tourism and recreation sectors of the economy. In this project, researchers will analyse the impacts of climate change on demand for freight transportation in Atlantic Canada as a result of shifts in sector specific demand. The project will model climate change impacts as productivity shocks in relevant sectors of the regional economy and trace the consequences of these shocks for demand for freight transportation.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Full Report Location: Link available