65 record(s) found.

Impacts & Adaptation of Drainage Systems, Design Methods & Policies

Addressing concerns that climate change could result in more frequent failures within urban drainage systems, resulting in increased flood damage and related health problems, a sensitivity analysis of existing design methods was undertaken using hydrologic simulations. Climate change impacts were evaluated in terms of changes to the drainage system peak flows and runoff volumes.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Adapting to Climate Change in the Grand River Watershed

The combined impacts of population growth, agricultural intensification and climate change on water availability and water quality were examined for the Grand River watershed (southern Ontario) as part of a shared management plan that is being developed among municipalities, First Nations and other interested parties.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Full Report Location: Link available

An Evaluation of Impact Assessment Procedures

This study examined whether the choice of models and modelling methods affects the results of agricultural impact assessments. Using statistical tests, the researchers concluded that the choice of downscaling, land suitability, and crop yield models does not unduly influence the results of impact assessments.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Freshwater Fisheries in Ontario

This study used historic data and climate models to determine the potential impacts of climate change on two economically important sport fish in Ontario. Researchers examined how climate change would affect sustainable yields and angling efforts of walleye, and the northern zoogeographic boundary of smallmouth bass. They found that sustained yield of walleye would generally increase in northern and central Ontario, and decrease in southern Ontario. To adapt to future changes, fisheries managers may look for trade-off options between cold, cool, and warm water fishery components (e.g., shift angling from cold to warm water fish species).

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Groundwater and Climate Change Interaction in Southern Ontario

Analyses of temperature, precipitation and stream flow data were used to determine indicators of climate - groundwater dynamics within selected watersheds of southern Ontario. Results were compared to landscape characteristics to determine relative climatic sensitivity for aquifers in different physical settings, and impacts estimated utilizing climate change scenarios.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Potential for Reversibility of Climate Change Impacts on Metabolism of Dissolved Organic Carbon in Boreal Forest Lakes

The Experimental Lakes Area (NW Ontario) database was used to define linkages between climate change and the chemical / biotic structure of lake ecosystems in Canada's boreal forest, in order to assess the impacts of climate warming on in-lake metabolism and test the potential reversibility of changes in dissolved organic carbon.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Climate Change and Extreme Rainfall-related Surface Runoff Risks in Ontario

The study will estimate the possible changes in frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall, surface runoff and flooding risks in the 21st century for several watersheds in Ontario. It will also quantitively examine the socio-economic impacts of historical, current and projected extreme events.

Project Status: In Progress

Impact of Climate Change on the Risk of Winter Damage to Agriculture Perennial Crops

This study examined the impacts of climate change on winter damage of perennial forage crops and fruit trees in eastern Canada. Researchers found that warmer winters would harm perennial forage crops by reducing the amount of protective snow cover and increasing the occurrence of above-freezing temperatures, while higher fall temperatures would decrease the cold hardiness of the plants. Although deciduous fruit trees would also suffer from loss of cold hardiness due to above-freezing temperatures, they may benefit from a decrease in both cold stress and late spring frosts.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Adaptation Options in Agriculture

This project developed an inventory of adaptation measures for Canadian agriculture and a model to evaluate how successful an adaptation option is likely to be. Researchers identified a wide array of adaptations, including technological, managerial and financial. They concluded that instead of evaluating adaptation options individually, it is more useful to consider how climate change risks fit into the more general decision-making processes in agriculture.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Full Report Location:

Link available
Link available

Vulnerability thresholds and adaptation options to climate change risks in the agri-food sector

The objectives of this study are to identify key climate-related vulnerabilities for the agri-food systems in Ontario and the Prairies and assess adaptation options for managing the identified climate change risks. Time series analyses will be conducted to examine, among other things, whether the variables have exceeded thresholds of the system (e.g. level of moisture deficit beyond which production is threatened). Data on production, income, and payouts (insurance etc.) will be compared to the climatic time series to test for evidence that the climatic extremes are reflected in the production and economic losses. The adaptation analysis will focus on the prospects for and constraints on existing management practices and progress to deal with climate change risks.

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

Impact of Climate Change on Birds in Eastern Canada

This study had two components. The first component studied changes in spring migration dates of birds wintering in Central and South America between 1962-2000. Researchers found that the arrival times of most species were significantly related to annual variation in temperature, with most species arriving earlier in warm springs. The ability of many migratory birds in North America to adjust their migration rate in response to temperature suggests they may be adapted to cope with at least moderate changes in climate. The second component analyzed the timing of breeding in tree swallows on the north shore of Lake Erie. Data indicated that tree swallows started laying their eggs earlier when the weather was warm in early May and later when it was cold. This data will be useful for analysis of the impacts of future climate change on bird migration and reproduction.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Full Report Location:

Link available
Link available

Effects of Climate Change on Migratory Birds

Researchers reviewed literature to produce an annotated bibliography of recent scientific papers and reports on the potential impacts of climate change on birds. The bibliography focused on (1) the climatic variables to which birds have been found to respond, and (2) the most common responses that birds have been found to show to those changes. Climatic variables most commonly identified as influencing bird responses include increases in air and sea surface temperature, sea level rise, drying of wetlands, and sea ice variability. Much of the literature correlated recent advances in breeding with warmer air temperatures in the spring.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Full Report Location: Link available

Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture/Forestry Land Use Patterns: Developing and Applying an Integrated Impact Assessment Model

In this project, researchers developed an integrated assessment model to predict how agriculture and forestry land use could change over time in response to alternative scenarios of climate change, ecosystem change and economic change. The project also involved estimating the impacts of climate change on forest land values and agriculture at the national level. Results suggest that while all regions of Canada would benefit from climate change, the relative gain would be greatest for the Prairies and lowest for coastal regions. In absolute terms Ontario would experience the largest gains. Forest land values are generally expected to change in the same direction as agriculture land values.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Enhancing Water Supply Infrastructure Investment Planning Practices
for a Changing Climate

The aim of this project is to improve practices in investment in infrastructure to protect water supply systems from changes in hydrology and consumptive patterns resulting from climate change.

Project Status: In Progress

Evaluating Rooftop and Vertical Gardens as an Adaptation Strategy for Urban Areas

In urban areas, more frequent heat waves, higher temperatures and more intense precipitation events are key concerns related to climate change. The use of rooftop gardens has the potential to lessen these impacts, while simultaneously providing ancillary benefits, including reduced energy expenditures and improved lifespan of roofing materials. To test the applicability of this adaptation strategy, researchers divided the roof of a test house in Ottawa, Ontario into two sections: one containing a rooftop garden (green roof), the other with conventional roofing (control). They found that the green roof significantly decreased heat flux through the roof, and could therefore reduce cooling needs in the summer, and heat loss in the winter. The green roof also reduced the rate and quantity of runoff during precipitation events, as the vegetation was able to intercept much of the incoming water. Widespread use of these green roofs in urban areas has the potential to reduce the heat island effect, and thereby moderate periods of extreme heat. However, further research and considerable public and industry education is required before green roofs become common in Canada.

Project Status: Complete

Extreme Climate Events in the Boreal Shield Lakes

Researchers established a network of aquatic research sites in the Boreal Shield ecozone, and used long-term aquatic databases to investigate how changes in temperature and precipitation impact water temperatures, plankton richness and biomass, phytoplankton communities, and water chemistry (e.g., acidity). The study found that annual patterns in air and water temperature were comparable across regions and that there were subsets of lakes where plankton richness and biomass varied in a similar manner through time. This suggests that there may be regional-level effects of climate on lake biota, although they are probably modified by individual lake characteristics. In addition to their primary results, researchers identified five priorities for future climate research in Boreal Shield lakes.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Feasibility of Identifying Heat-Related Illness and Deaths As a Basis for Effective Climate Change Risk Management and Adaptation

This study examined whether health care records for hospital visits were suitable for assessing heat-related health effects. Researchers looked at relationships between heat-related illnesses and heat stress periods (air temperatures greater than or equal to 30ºC) between 1992 and 1999. In comparing Ottawa, Ontario and London, Ontario they found that Ottawa had almost twice as many heat stress periods (22 vs. 12), and Ottawa hospitals treated more than double the amount of patients for heat-related health problems (117 vs. 53). The researchers concluded that medical records may be useful for monitoring health effects of heat, and identifying vulnerable population groups in different cities and regions.

Project Status: Complete

The Impact of Climate Change on Water Distribution System Design Criteria

Currently water systems are designed based on past climate. This study will examine how water distribution systems could take future climate change into account. Researches will answer two questions: 1. What is the link between climate change and the way water distribution systems should be designed and operated? 2. What practical difference will it make to be able to anticipate or plan for climate change? This research could lead to long-term cost reduction and improve the effectiveness of system operation.

Project Status: In Progress

The Implications of Climate Change for Canada´s Boundary and
Transboundary Water Management

This project will analyze the potential impacts of climate change on boundary and transboundary water basins between Canada and the United States and between provinces and territories. It will also examine existing water-related agreements and procedures and assess their ability to adapt to climate change.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Full Report Location: Link available

Adaptation Strategies to Reduce Health Risks from Summer Heat in Toronto

In June 2001, public health adaptation measures were implemented in Metropolitan Toronto to help protect residents from extreme heat and cold events. Extensive collaborations between many different governmental (e.g., emergency services, housing services, libraries) and non-governmental organizations (e.g., pharmacy chains, seniors' networks) were established to help protect more vulnerable population groups, such as seniors and homeless people from thermal extremes. Some examples of the adaptation strategies implemented include: - Extreme cold weather and extreme heat announcements via news media, - Active intervention by public health and volunteer agencies (e.g., street patrols to locate and care for homeless people), - Increased availability and accessibility of heated and air conditioned public buildings, drop-in centres and sheltersNew guidelines for managing long-term care facilities.

Project Status: Complete

Adapting Health Infrastructures to Cope with the Health Effects of Climate Change: A Case Study in the Toronto-Niagara Region

To overcome barriers to effective adaptation, researchers recommend the following: - Integrate efforts to develop coordinated responses to climate change and health; - Expand existing monitoring, reporting and surveillance networks to include climate-related health impacts; - Increase and improve professional and public education of adaptive actions; - Involve organizations, such as the Canadian Associated of Physicians for the Environment in education campaigns; - Learn and build from past experiences to develop organizational structure for proceeding with an adaptation action plan.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Adaptation Strategies for Oil and Gas Infrastructure

Changes in the duration, amount and intensity of precipitation have the potential to increase ground movement and slope instability. This soil movement could, in turn, threaten the structural integrity of linear infrastructure, including pipelines, roads and railroads, by placing additional strain on these structures. In this study, researchers examined the integrity of pipelines in western Canada by using a modelling approach to predict the effect of changes in precipitation on slope movement rates. Results allowed the identification of critical thresholds that will help industry and government regulators plan for potential impacts of climate change.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Full Report Location: Link available

Impacts of Climate Change on the Spread of Lyme Disease in Canada

A multidisciplinary team of specialists will study the unique distribution of Lyme disease in Canada to determine the role that climate plays in its distribution and ecology. Research will focus on the transmission of the disease, identification of geographically vulnerable populations and the potential impacts of climate change. The team will examine the capacity of Canadians to respond to these impacts and assess current public health measures to respond to Lyme disease. Results will provide Canadian public health policy makers and practitioners with tools to assess appropriate social and environmental interventions as an adaptation to climate change.

Project Status: In Progress

Water Quality Modelling Based on Changes in Water Quantity from Climate Change

The project will evaluate methodologies for predicting the climate change impacts on water quality (nutrients and dissolved oxygen). It will also identify and examine possible adaptive management strategies for reducing sensitivities to these impacts.

Project Status: In Progress

A Synopsis of Known and Potential Diseases and Parasites of Plants Associated with Climate Change

Few studies have been completed on the impacts of parasites and diseases on the health and well-being of plants and animals in a changing climate. The objective of this study is to provide an overview of known and potential diseases and parasites, the species of plants that they affect, and known control and management tools and techniques. The project will collate existing data and expert opinion in order to meet the objective.

Project Status: In Progress

National Transportation Impacts and Adaptation Workshop

Transport Canada held a two day workshop that: (1) discussed the potential and current, short and long term, climate change impacts on transportation infrastructure and operations; (2) facilitated network development; and (3) gathered stakeholder input to assist the assessment of priority areas of research to aid decision-makers. While uncertainties remain, especially in predicting local effects, sensitivities and vulnerabilities were identified. The need for developing inter-jurisdictional mechanisms for establishing priorities, coordinating activities, and sharing resources, is apparent; suggested approaches included a pilot program in the territories where adaptation strategies are most urgently needed. In attendance were sixty transportation professionals and climate change experts. Climate change adaptation should be integrated into federal, provincial and territorial government business planning.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Climate change and Canadian road transport: assessing impacts and adaptations

There is limited information available on the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the road freight system to changes in weather and climate. To address this knowledge gap, researchers will conduct a, quantitative assessment of road transport's vulnerability to climate conditions (both chronic and acute) as well as an in-depth evaluation of existing management and operations. The project will provide a comparative analysis of current approaches to dealing with climate variability in various regions of Canada as it affects the road transport system. This project has four main objectives: 1) To understand the historical pattern of climate and weather events affecting the road transportation system across Canada, focussing on the TransCanada Corridor, other major corridors and border crossings; 2)To identify and understand the operational effects and management approaches associated with current climate and weather events with an emphasis on critical vulnerability thresholds; 3) to establish the net socio-economic impacts of the operational effects and management approaches identified above; and4) To apply climate change scenarios and explore the socio-economic implications of various adaptation strategies.

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

Afforestation of Marginal Agricultural Land

This study determined the location, extent and forest potential of soils that are currently marginal for farming, and assessed the socioeconomic impacts of converting those areas to forest production. Researchers applied geographic information systems (GIS), ground-truthing, and socio-economic data to complete the analysis.

Project Status: Complete

Enhanced Indicators of Climate Change Impacts on Forest Hydrology

This study developed indicators to demonstrate the sensitivity of the forest water balance to climate variability. This will assist the forestry sector in evaluating land use adaptation strategies, especially in regions where persistent water deficits may develop in the next century.

Project Status: Complete

Evaluating the Sensitivities of Boreal Forest Lakes to Climatic Change

This study examined climatic sensitivities of boreal forest lakes at the Experimental Lakes Area (ELA) in northwestern Ontario. Using historic ELA data, climate change was found to potentially interfere both physically and chemically with the recovery of boreal lakes from acidification. Preliminary experimental research also suggested that some forms of dissolved organic carbon could enhance in-lake buffering of acidity. Another experiment demonstrated that increased water temperatures would modify near-shore food webs and productivity. Researchers also enhanced the ELA database, enabling continuing analysis of climatic factors controlling climatically related declines in lake concentrations of dissolved organic carbon.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Projecting Canadian Forest Fire Impacts in a Changing Climate: Laying the Foundation for the Development of Sound Adaptation Strategies

This project examined the relationship between fire activity and climate in Canada over the past 50 years, and evaluated how an increase in the number and severity of fires would affect forest communities, timber supply, and carbon budgets. Researchers used high-resolution regional climate models to generate scenarios of future forest fire danger. They found that the seasonal fire severity rating would increase in much of Canada under the projected impacts of climate changes.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Changes in Water Quantity and Quality as a Result of Climate Change

Twenty five years of precipitation and runoff data within the Experimental Lakes Area of NW Ontario was used to assess: 1) the interaction of runoff and climate parameters; 2) water chemistry response to historic climate and vegetation changes in the watershed; and 3) potential changes in runoff and water chemistry under projected climate scenarios.

Project Status: Complete

The Impact of Climate Change on the Thermal Structure of Boreal Forest Lakes and its Potential Impact on Important Fish Communities

Using data from the Experimental Lakes Area (ELA) in northwestern Ontario, researchers modelled the impact of different climate change scenarios on the thermal regime of lakes in the region. They found that climate warming would affect the timing and characteristics of lake stratification and ice cover, with resultant consequences for fish thermal habitat. Spatial and temporal shifts in thermal niche space are expected to affect the feeding patterns, productivity and reproduction of fish such as yellow perch and lake trout.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Using Winter Climatic Data to Estimate Spring Crown Dieback in Yellow Birch: a Case Study to Project the Extent and Locations of Pas and Future Birch Decline

Researchers used winter climatic data to investigate the impact of winter thaws and late spring frosts on yellow birch, a tree common to Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic region. Researchers found a strong temporal and spatial relationship between extended winter thaws and spring crown diebacks and decline. These thaws have increased over the last 30 years. Future climate changes are expected to result in even more frequent and prolonged winter thaws, and therefore a potential worsening of birch dieback and decline.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Impacts of Climate Change on Permafrost in Canada

In this project, researchers examined potential changes in the temperature and extent of permafrost in Canada due to projected climate warming. This was done by applying a climate-permafrost model within a geographical information system (GIS). They found that under a 2xCO2 warming scenario, total permafrost area would be reduced by about 28%, resulting in most of the western mainland, all of northern Quebec and the Mackenzie Valley becoming permafrost-free. Cold, stable permafrost would be confined largely to the Arctic Archipelago.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Susceptibility of Canadian Forests to a changing fire regime: defining and costing sound fire management adaptation strategies

This study will address the susceptibility of Canada's forests to a changing fire regime as a result of climate change. Knowing the location and the level of susceptibility of Canadian forests to fire will greatly aid in the development of adaptation strategies. An altered fire regime could have important consequences for fire management agencies and for silvicultural practices that are being developed to emulate natural disturbances. In this study, researchers will determine the impact of a changing climate on the level of fire activity in Canadian forests, estimate the economic effect and impact of the altered fire activity on fire management agencies and develop a range of adaptation strategies that balance economic costs and environmental impacts for fire management agencies to address the altered fire activity.

Project Status: In Progress

A multi-centre Approach to Investigate the Health Impacts of Extreme Heat and Cold Events due to Climate Change and Climate Variation

In order to assess the effects of extreme heat and cold periods on the health of the population, it is necessary to understand the relationship between health and climate under current and past conditions. This project will attempt to assess the prevalence of illness, injury and death as a result of extreme heat and cold events through the collection and evaluation of administrative health data in the form of mortality, hospital admissions, emergency room, physician billing files, and trauma data from different sentinel health centres across Canada. These centres include: Vancouver, Calgary, Winnipeg, Quebec City, Ottawa and Halifax. Linking the regional health data to synoptic weather classifications of extreme heat and cold events over an approximate 10 year period, will provide new knowledge regarding the vulnerability of certain populations and/or regions and establish the need for a surveillance system to monitor associated health impacts to climate variability. This information can then be used for more accurate assessments of health effects of climate change in Canada, and provide policy and decision-makers with a scientific basis for adaptation measures needed.

Project Status: In Progress

Natural Disturbances in Boreal Forests and Climate Change

Wildfire and spruce budworm outbreaks are widespread disturbances in the boreal forest. Researchers examined the interactions between these disturbances and assessed how projected climate change would affect these interactions. They concluded that warmer and drier conditions induced by climate change would cause wildfires to increase in stands defoliated by spruce budworm, as well as increase the frequency and intensity of spruce budworm outbreaks.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Quantifying the interaction of spruce budworm and wildfire disturbance regimes in central Canada´s boreal forests in response to climate variability and change

The most important natural disturbances in Canada's boreal forests are wildfire and outbreaks of spruce budworm. Little work has been done on fire-spruce budworm (SBW) interaction and how climate change may affect it. Researchers will do statistical analyses of Ontario's historical records to quantify the SBW-fire interaction and how climate has affected this interaction in the recent past.

Project Status: In Progress

Yield Variability under Climate Change and Adaptive Crop Management Scenarios

Using a simulation model that integrates major biophysical processes and soil and crop management practices, the researchers examined the impacts of climate change on crop yields across Canada. Results indicate that under a 2xCO2 climate change scenario, yields of soybean, potato and winter wheat would generally increase, while yields of corn would tend to decrease. The role of adaptations in reducing losses and increasing gains was also demonstrated.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

The Costs of Adaptation to Climate Change in Canada: A Stratified Estimate by Sectors and Regions

The objective of this research was to make reliable estimates of the costs of adapting public infrastructure in Canada to future climate change.  Researchers estimated the costs of adapting roads, bridges and water utilities to deal with a projected 5% increase in mean temperature and a 10% increase in mean precipitation over the next century. For example, the cost of constructing all-weather roads in northern Ontario, to replace seasonal ice roads, was estimated to be at least $85 000 per kilometre.  The average cost of replacing a coastal bridge to deal with sea level rise was estimated to be $600 000. Other cost estimates are outlined in the final report.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location:

Link available
Link available

Municipal Infrastructure Risk Project (Across Canada)

Researchers conducted interviews in six municipalities across the country to better understand the barriers to climate change adaptation at the municipal level. These interviews revealed that financial constraints, attitudes of the public and council members, and the nature of municipal politics were key factors limiting the consideration of climate change in infrastructure decisions. For example, municipalities were not comfortable undertaking long-term financial and infrastructure planning without guarantees of funds from provincial government. In addition, priorities are set, and final decisions are made by council members, many of whom may not consider climate change to be a priority issue within their three-year term of office. Indeed, lack of awareness of the importance of climate change issues among both the public and councillors, was an often-cited barrier to adaptation. Another significant constraint was insufficient municipal staff time and resources to plan for future climate change impacts. To begin to overcome these barriers, researchers recommend increasing awareness and understanding of climate change, and providing municipal staff with detailed information on potential climate change impacts on infrastructure. Improving relationships and communication between scientific researchers and municipal staff was also suggested, as were various ideas for dealing with financial barriers (e.g., funding opportunities).

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Full Report Location: Link available

Water Sector: Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change

Regional workshops were used to identify broad scale vulnerabilities in the water resources sector across Canada. The resulting report addresses the nature and reliability of the new generation climate models; regional vulnerabilities for the major regions of Canada; and outlines an adaptation strategy for water management.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Impact of an extreme climatic event on productivity and growth in sugar maple

The January 5-10, 1998 ice storm was one of the worst weather disasters in Canadian history. The frequency of such extreme events is likely to increase in the future with global climate change. This study will characterize the longer-term effects of this extreme environmental event and determine if treatments can be applied to alleviate these effects. The impact of an extreme climatic event (1998 ice storm) on sugar maple sap and syrup productivity, root starch reserves, wound healing, and diameter growth in commercial sugar maple bushes will be measured to help determine if they are affected by remedial lime and fertilizer treatments.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Adaptation Measures for the Ontario Fruit Industry due to Climate Change

The purpose of this project is to determine the vulnerability of the Ontario fruit production industry to climate change by predicting water requirements for high value fruit crop production, both for irrigation (drought protection) and for the likelihood of frost damage protection, and to develop mechanisms for adapting to these changes, such as the selection of irrigation technology and frost protection measures. Specifically, this project will estimate the water requirements for peach and wine grapes under different climate change scenarios, predict irrigation needs under a range of future climate scenarios, and develop water management and investment strategies that will assist farmers in adapting to changes in climatic and hydrologic regimes. It will also analyze growers' decisions regarding the adoption of different irrigation technologies, analyze and estimate potential frost damage occurrences under future climate scenarios, and undertake analyses of growers' decisions regarding the adoption of different frost protection technologies.

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

Climate Change, Water Resources, and Rural Community Capacity to Adapt

The capacity of rural communities in the upper Credit River watershed, a rural-urban fringe area in southern Ontario, to adapt to climate-induced water shortages was assessed, recognising the need to balance human water needs with protection of water for natural systems.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Designing for Resiliency and Self-reliance: an Evaluation of Options for Responding to Agricultural Drought in Canada

This project will assess the effectiveness of selected structural and non-structural responses to agricultural drought in farming systems in Canada. The project will assess the extent to which specific responses lessen vulnerability through enhanced drought preparedness and improved self-reliance at scales ranging from the farm enterprise to agricultural communities and regions, and will highlight lessons that can be learned to cope with future drought conditions as climate changes. The research will be organized around a set of linked objectives designed to extend understanding of the nature and process of drought management and preparedness.

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

A Comparative Assessment of the Capacity of Canadian Rural Communities to Adapt to Uncertain Futures

Changes in ecosystems supporting communities in coastal Newfoundland and British Columbia, central Canada and northern Saskatchewan have already occurred and climate change in conjunction with other socio-economic and political factors will continue to effect livelihoods in these rural communities. This comparative assessment will employ a human vulnerability-security research framework to assess each community's capacity to cope with and, if necessary, adapt to uncertain futures including climatic change.

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

Promoting community sustainability through adaptive responses to socio-economic and risk assessments of the potential impacts of climate change scenarios in a natural resource-based, mid-sized Canadian Shield community:  Greater Sudbury Ontario

This project aims to explore how this natural resource-based community's socio-economic activities are vulnerable to current and future climate, the potential barriers to adaptation and learn how information about climate change should be structured for use by local decision-makers. The approach being developed will integrate across sectors and be based on the participation of the community.

Project Status: In Progress

Climate and climate change vulnerability assessment of northern renewable resource based communities (NRRBC)

The project will combine biological modeling and socioeconomic analysis to develop an integrated assessment approach for assessment of factors contributing to the vulnerability of renewable resource based communities in Canada. The assessment methodology will be tested on two Canadian communities. An important and relatively unique dimension of this project is that the analysis of impacts and community capacities will be undertaken at scales relevant to community decision makers (i.e. relatively high spatial resolution compared to most vulnerability assessments). Through partnership with the Model Forest program communities will be engaged in the project and examination of the results.

Project Status: In Progress

Risk Management Guidelines for Adaptation Decision Making in Municipalities

Using a draft guide “Risk-based Adaptation to Climate Change: A Guide for Ontario Municipalities” developed through workshops in 2005. In this project, the draft guide will be tested in a workshop setting to test its utility in the Ontario municipal institutional context.

Project Status: In Progress

The Tap Runs Dry: Lessons Learned and Forgotten by Southern Ontario Communities during Past Severe Droughts and Implications for Climate Change

The project will involve stakeholder consultations with Conservation Authorities and selected municipalities to seek input on historical drought impacts, drought indices, past vulnerabilities to severe drought. The team will collect and summarize the physical and socioeconomic impacts of drought for several case study communities and water sheds, document and evaluate the adaptation options used during past severe droughts for these locations and develop a vulnerability index and maps to identify locations of past severe drought and vulnerability to drought impacts in southern Ontario.

Project Status: In Progress

Walpole Island First Nation:  Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options

The objectives of this project were to investigate what climate changes are occurring and are predicted to occur that may have an impact on Walpole Island's economy, ecosystems and the health of their community members. Some of their findings concluded that in the future, the community of Walpole Island could expect to see increased severe weather events that will be short in duration but increased in intensity. These events will have impacts on their agricultural industry, hunting and fishing, and ultimately affect the economic and physical health of their community members. Decreased groundwater levels, decreased lake levels and the increase of the arrival of invasive species will have an impact on their wetlands, marshes, coastal habitats and forests. This will directly affect the community of Walpole Island. Along with understanding the effects of climate change on their community, the researchers engaged the community in the project, using the opportunity to promote the message of climate change to the community and how climate change could affect their lives and livelihoods. Citizen engagement and sharing knowledge gained through the course of the project is a major outcome of this research.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

An Integrated Assessment of Climate Change and Tourism in the Georgian Lakeland Tourism District

Although the Georgian Lakeland Tourism District, also known as Ontario's ‘cottage country' is known primarily for its summer activities, the winter tourism season is also important. Winter recreation enhances the sustainability of communities, as it decreases the seasonality of incomes, and brings in additional revenue. As such, the effects of warmer winters on cold-weather activities represent a key concern for tourism and recreation providers. Using climate change scenarios, researchers projected the impacts of climate change on downhill skiing, snowmobiling, ice fishing and cross-country skiing in the region. They found that the downhill skiing industry was the least sensitive to climate change due to their snowmaking capacity. Activities with limited to no snowmaking capacity, including snowmobiling and cross-country skiing were more vulnerable. Indeed, by the 2050s, the length of the snowmobiling season is projected to be only half of that at present. Ice-fishing operations would also experience significantly shorter seasons. Communities dependent on winter tourism will have to adapt to these changes.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Climate Change and Seasonality in Canadian Outdoor Recreation and Tourism

This study focuses on evaluating how climate change will effect outdoor activities such as alpine skiing, snowmobiling, golfing and camping; vital parts of the recreation and tourism industry. Researchers will assess the risks and opportunities climate change poses for these activities in selected locations across Canada, assess the implications for intra- and inter-regional competitive relationships and tourism product development and explore supply and demand-side adaptations to altered recreational season lengths.

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

The Vulnerability of Nature-Based Tourism in Canada to Climate

This study focuses on the quality of the natural setting in influencing nature based tourism demand. This quality is impacted by global climate change. The areas of study are national and provincial parks in Ontario and Saskatchewan. There are three objectives for this study: 1) assessment of the sensitivity major recreation activities to climate in selected parks and attendant implications for visitor use patterns; 2) examination of how climate change impacts on the natural resources of selected parks may affect preferences for tourism destinations; and 3) examination of the capacity of current visitor management plans to cope with climate change, identify potential park management adaptive responses and existing barriers to adaptation.

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

Full Report Location: Link available

The Vulnerability of the National Capital Region Tourism to Climate Change

The tourism and recreation sector is particularly vulnerable to climate change effects on the length of operating seasons or ‘natural seasonality.' Any changes in seasonality would have considerable implications for the short and long-term sustainability of tourism and recreation enterprises and communities where tourism in an important component of the local economy. The objectives of this research are to assess potential changes in the seasonality of major segments of the winter and warm-weather outdoor recreation markets, and to assess the implications for major tourism event programming in the National Capital Region.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Full Report Location: Link available

Transient simulations of climate change impacts on Canada´s forests 2000-2100: Vulnerability and implications for forestry and conservation

Canada's forests are of critical importance to our national heritage as well as to our economy. Globally our forests contribute to climatic stability, the water cycle and the sequestration of carbon. Climate change threatens these ecosystem services. In this study researchers will assess (1) the impacts of a range of plausible climate change scenarios on the distribution and composition of Canada's forests, and (2) the implications for forestry and conservation interests.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location: Link available

Institutional Arrangements and Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change at the Watershed Scale

The project will analyze the extent to which institutional arrangements for water management affect the ability of watershed management structures to adapt to climate change, specifically during droughts and other low-water periods.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Full Report Location:

Link available
Link available

Farm-level adaptation to multiple risks: climate change and other concerns

This study's purpose is to assess the prospects for farm-level adaptation to climate change and other risks in Canadian agriculture. Focusing on the lower Fraser Valley, BC, Manitoba, and southwestern Ontario, the main objectives are: 1) conceptualize and empirically assess the place and the interaction of climate related risks relative to other risks of production, marketing, and finance in Canadian agriculture; 2) assess the suitability of conventional farm-level climate change adaptation options in Canadian agriculture given other sources of risk, and; 3) develop a revised inventory of farm-level options for adapting to climate and other risks in Canadian agriculture.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Full Report Location: Link available

Response strategy to maintain shipping and port activities in the face of climate change - reduced water levels in the Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Seaway

Climate change could lead to a significant drop in water levels in the Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Seaway system over a relatively short period of time. Some models estimate that levels could drop as much as one metre below chart datum, the reference point against which water levels are currently measured. Should this estimate prove accurate, it could have significant economic consequences, not only for port infrastructure located along the shoreline, but also for marine activity as a whole.

Project Status: Complete

Full Report Location:

Link available
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The road well travelled: implications of a future climate on the performance of pavement infrastructure in southern Canada

Little research has been conducted linking climate change to the future state of Canadian road and pavement infrastructure, despite the substantial $100 billion asset value of the road system and the dependence of Canadian economic and social activity on road transport. In this project, researchers will study how climate change may affect the frequency, severity and duration of conditions that lead to various forms of pavement deterioration and analyse the economic and safety implications of potential changes in pavement performance. Specifically, researchers will look at permanent deformation associated with heat-related rutting, thermal cracking associated with low temperatures, and frost heave and associated seasonal deformation stress. The results of this study will include an examination of potential adjustments to design, construction, and management standards to reduce impacts and take advantage of possible benefits; and identify and explain potential obstacles and opportunities to implementing these adjustments.

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

Climate Change adaptation options for coastal zone management in the Great Lake Basin

The purpose of this study is to identify coastal features and processes that are likely to be affected by climate change and to determine sustainable management practices that will reduce the vulnerability of these features and processes. The project will provide an assessment of knowledge on adaptive management plans and activities that address climate variability, extremes, and climate change for Provincial and National Parks, Wildlife Areas, Important Bird Areas, significant spawning and nursery areas for fisheries, and Areas of Concern on the Great Lakes. The project will utilize climate and hydrologic data from the Great Lakes Basin to examine a range of climatic and Great Lakes coastal variables, the frequency of extreme events, and changes that are likely to occur under various climate change scenarios. The research will focus on existing integrated data sources and the development of transfer functions which link Great Lakes Basin studies to global climate models.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available

Full Report Location: Link available

Great Lakes Coastal Wetland Communities: Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Response to Adaptation Strategies

In this study, researchers intend to supplement pre-existing GIS databases on recent changes in plant communities of the marginal wetlands of the Great Lakes with further analysis of historical air photos and fieldwork in selected areas. The database will then be queried to determine the relationship between changes in lake levels and plant community extent. The results will be used to develop a model which will: (1) forecast future community plant distribution as a function of changing water levels; (2) assess concomitant changes in bird and fish assemblages, and; (3) assess water regulation strategies. A report intended for government and non-governmental resource management agencies will explain the vulnerability of Great Lakes coastal wetland ecosystems to water level change (as a surrogate for climate change), document implications for ecosystem remediation and protection, and assist in identifying and developing both management policy instruments and infrastructure adaptation strategies to maintain ecosystem function and values.

Project Status: In Progress

Further Research Information: Link available

Adapting to Climate Change in Toronto

Focussing on the City of Toronto, this project will undertake: a scan and summary of climate change impacts that are possible in Toronto; a review of other municipalities which have begun climate change adaptation planning, and case studies of the most interesting and relevant programs for the City of Toronto. The research team will have meetings and workshops to engage municipal decision-makers in thinking about potential climate change impacts and possible responses to these impacts, as well as selecting priority sectors for adaptation planning.

Project Status: Complete

Further Research Information: Link available