Although understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on Canadian agriculture has improved, a number of key knowledge gaps, particularly with respect to the process of agricultural adaptation, need to be addressed in order to fully assess vulnerability. As with other sectors, emphasis has been placed predominantly on the biophysical impacts of climate change, with less attention given to socio-economic impacts. Research on climate change impacts and adaptation in the food-processing sector is also sparse. There is a need for more integrated costing studies, which consider all potential impacts of climate change on the sector, as well as adaptation options. Such information is necessary not only for domestic issues, but also to assess comparative advantages within global agricultural commodity markets. Comparisons between studies and regions will be assisted by more standardized use of climate change scenarios and crop production models. Research is also needed to determine what barriers exist to adaptation in the agriculture sector and how these can be addressed. Increased use of new methodologies for assessing vulnerability would help to address these gaps.

Another important focus for agricultural research is the identification of thresholds. The agriculture sector has proven itself to be highly adaptive, but this adaptation takes place within a certain range of climate conditions. New adaptive measures may serve to expand this range somewhat, but there exist climatic thresholds beyond which activities are not economically viable and substantive changes in practices would be required. An improved understanding of where these critical thresholds lie will contribute to the development of appropriate adaptation strategies.

Needs with respect to primary agricultural production, as identified within the recent literature cited in this chapter, include the following:

Impacts

1. Increased focus on the impacts of changes in the frequency of extreme events, rather than mean conditions, on both crops and livestock
2. Improved understanding of potential changes in wind regimes and their impacts on agricultural production
3. Studies on how climate change will affect the intensity and distribution of weeds, insects and diseases, and incorporation of these findings into impact assessments
4. More comprehensive studies of the impacts of climate change on specific farm types and regions in Canada
5. Analyses of the effects of climatic changes and CO2 fertilization on pastures and grasslands
6. Improved understanding of the role of international markets in determining the economic impacts of climate change on Canada

Adaptation

1. Studies that designate responsibility for action, by determining which adaptations are appropriate for which groups (e.g., producers, industry and government)
2. Improved understanding of the physical and socio-economic consequences of different options for adaptation
3. An assessment of the effects that trade and other agreements will have on promoting climate change adaptation or maladaptation
4. Studies that address the role of adaptation in decision making at the farm, industry and governmental levels
5. Better understanding of the mechanisms for expanding the general adaptive capacity of agriculture