A Cost-Benefit Information System on Afforestation in Canada

Introduction

We have developed a spatial model called CFS-AFM (Canadian Forest Service Afforestation Feasibility Model; McKenney et al. 2004) to simulate a wide range of possible benefits and costs associated with afforestation. Afforestation is the planting of trees on lands that has not been forested for at least 50 years. Potential benefits include wood production for timber and/or pulp, credits for carbon sequestration and other non-wood, non-carbon services that may arise from afforestation. Costs include plantation establishment and management costs and forgone agricultural production. The model uses Monte Carlo simulation techniques to address uncertainty in biophysical and economic variables.

Our analyses have included scenarios with fast growing hybrid poplar, and somewhat slower growing, but potentially more valuable conifer and hardwood species. This website is intended to provide some summary results for several analyses. For further information contact Dan McKenney or Denys Yemshanov.

Methods

The model consists of three basic components: (1) Input data and randomization, (2) Timber production and carbon sequestration, and (3) Cost-benefit analysis (Fig. 1). The data management module includes routines to read data and maps, scenario assumptions, and perform Monte-Carlo randomization. The input data and randomization module also prepares spatial and tabular outputs calculated by the carbon accounting and the cost-benefit modules. It also calculates statistics from individual iterations for the summary outputs. The timber production and carbon sequestration module calculates the timber produced and carbon. Carbon content is tracked in the following ecosystem pools: soil, forest litter, standing aboveground and root biomass, also the carbon transfers among ecosystem pools and CO2 emissions from biomass decay. The data produced are then used for economic calculations such as net present values and internal rates of return. Benefit prices (e.g. timber, pulp, carbon) can be set or the model can determine break-even prices when net present values are less than or equal to zero.

Fig.1. CFS-AFM model overview

Besides the spatial and Monte Carlo nature of the model an important distinguishing factor is that the model is "raster" or grid-based meaning that it can be run at different spatial resolutions depending on the data available. Most national analyses have been run at a scale where agricultural land is represented at approximately a 1 square kilometer resolution.

Several articles and presentations have been produced that provide many details on the model. These are available upon request.

McKenney, D.W., Yemshanov, D., Fox, G. and E. Ramlal. 2004. Cost estimates for carbon sequestration from fast growing poplar plantations in Canada. Forest Policy and Economics 6 (3-4): 345-358.

McKenney, D.W., Yemshanov, D., Fox, G. and E. Ramlal. 2006. Using bioeconomic models to assess research priorities: a case study on afforestation as a carbon sequestration tool. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 36: 886-900.

Yemshanov, D., McKenney, D.W., Hatton, T., Fox, G., Investment Attractiveness of Afforestation in Canada Inclusive of Carbon Sequestration Benefits. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2005. 53: p. 307-323.

A Library of Results

The table below identifies several scenarios and example outputs. Details on the key assumptions for each analysis are provided in the link. Results are summarized in maps and tables.