Pandemic Influenza and Canada

How likely is it that pandemic influenza will spread to Canada?

The World Health Organization is on constant lookout for the first signs of a pandemic emerging so steps can be taken to try to contain it. However, with the numbers of people now flying all around the world, the chances of it reaching Canada are much increased since the last pandemic in 1968. Once an influenza pandemic affects other countries, it will almost certainly reach Canada.

How will it spread to Canada?

Most likely it will spread through people catching the infection in an affected part of the world and developing symptoms after arriving in Canada.

How will we know it has reached Canada?

Canada has a well-developed surveillance system and its own network of laboratories that refer unusual viruses to the National Microbiology Laboratory (located in Winnipeg) for precise identification. This will help us identify the pandemic strain as early as possible.

What will this mean for Canada?

Once in Canada, an influenza pandemic will spread across the country in a matter of weeks and may cause

high levels of influenza
intense pressure on health services
disruption to many aspects of daily life
many deaths

In anticipation of such an occurrence, the Government of Canada has developed the Canadian Pandemic Influenza Plan. This recognizes the exceptional demands that are likely to be placed on the health system.

How long will the pandemic last in Canada?

Pandemic influenza will be widespread in Canada within about 10 weeks of its first arriving in the country and will last for about 2-3 months. There may be a second wave of infection a few weeks or months later. These times are estimates and may change as more information becomes available.

How likely am I to catch the strain of influenza?

You are more likely to catch it than ordinary influenza, because it spreads rapidly and very few people will have any immunity to it. Everyone will be at risk. Some groups of people may be more at risk than others, but every pandemic is different. Until the virus starts spreading, it is very difficult to predict who these groups might be.

With ordinary influenza those groups of people more likely to become seriously ill include

the very young
people over age 65 years of age
people with existing medical conditions such as lung diseases, diabetes, cancer, or kidney or heart problems
people who have weakened immune systems because of certain treatments or illnesses such as HIV/AIDS

These may be different in an influenza pandemic.

What is the government doing to prepare for an influenza pandemic?

The government is taking steps to be in the best possible position for a vaccine to be manufactured as quickly as possible when a pandemic virus is identified. The development of a vaccine is still likely to take several months, however. The vaccine is unlikely to be ready at the start of a new pandemic.
The provincial Department of Health is working with Health Canada to monitor avian influenza activity overseas and updates key staff in the district health authorities so that they are aware of any activity.
We have a surveillance system in place in all of our hospitals to identify any severe respiratory illnesses, including things like avian influenza or SARS.
The government is building up its stockpile of antiviral drugs. They will be used in the most effective way to treat those most at risk of serious illness based on how the disease develops. It will be most important to prevent influenza in groups of people necessary to provide health care and keep the province running.
Nova Scotia's plan will be in line with the Canadian Pandemic Influenza Plan. It will map out how the province will prepare for and respond to pandemic influenza. The province continues to work on the plan based on new information that comes available. The plan will include actions to improve our preparedness now, before another pandemic occurs.
If pandemic influenza reaches Canada, there will be announcements in the newspapers and on radio and TV, and advice will be given on the best course of action to take. Simple hygiene measures and reducing social contact could help to slow spread of the disease and buy time until a vaccine is ready.

What contingency plans does Canada have for an influenza pandemic?

Canada was one of the first countries to have an influenza pandemic contingency plan in place. The plan provides the overall framework for an integrated nation-wide response, escalating as a pandemic threat increases and then as the pandemic evolves. Canada's plan, as well as Nova Scotia's, seeks to reduce the health impact of a pandemic and the possible disruption it may cause to essential services and people's daily lives. This will be through the best application of measures such as antiviral treatment and immunization (when this becomes available) and preparing the province and the district health authorities as well as possible.