eDiscussion Overview:

Demographic trends have long played an important role in shaping world history and relations among states. They will continue to do so in this centruy. According to the United Nations Population Division global population continues to increase and virtually all population growth is occurring in the less developed regions. Most industrialized countries will experience little growth and some may even face population decline. If current projections hold, in 2050 the world will bear the following characteristics:  a more populous Asia-Pacific region;         an older and greying Europe; and  a much larger and more Hispanic-influenced United States.

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Shift in Balance of Power?
By the year 2050, the world's most populous countries will be India, China, United States, Pakistan, Indonesia, Nigeria and Bangladesh. Some countries in the industrialised world - Russia, Germany and Japan - will see their populations actually decline over the next decades.  What effect will this have on geopolitics and the global balance of power?  What does this mean for Canada?

Energy Shortages?
According to the UN, the world is going to grow in population size from 6.5 billion to 9.1 billion by 2050. This will significantly increase pressure on the world's resources, including to meet fast-rising energy needs. Will we see more cooperation or conflict among states as they strive to meet their demand for energy and resources?  
 
Canada-US Relations
The 2000 U.S. census indicated that by 2050 nearly half of all Americans will be visible minorities, with a large proportion being Hispanic.  What impact will this changing demographic have on internal US politics and what would be the implications for Canada-US relations?
 
New Face of Canada Foreign Policy?
In recent years, more than 50 percent of new immigrants to Canada have come from Asia, mostly from China and India making successful relations with Asia-Pacific will be key to Canada's foreign policy objectives. What impact will Canada's demographic changes have on Canadian foreign policy in the long term? 

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eDiscussion Resources:

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Latest Netcast Interview

The challenges and objectives of migration and demography in society Luc Legoux of La Sorbonne talks about the challenges and objectives of migration and demography in society. He is an assistant demography professor at Université Paris 1, in Paris, France.

 

Lakehead University	Security and Conflict Resolution	HTML | PDF (English only)
University of Quebec in Montreal	POL 8421: International Relations of Canada and Quebec	HTML | PDF (French only)
Simon Fraser University	Political Science 349: Special Topics: Human Security	HTML | PDF (English only)

Global Demography and Implications for Canada - Paper from Citizenship and Immigration Canada - PDF FORMAT
The world has been undergoing significant demographic change over the past several decades. Population growth in the world’s wealthier countries has slowed while the developing world has experienced significant increases in its overall numbers. Over the next few decades demographic trends will continue to shape the future of the international community. This discussion paper, prepared by Citizenship and Immigration Canada provides an overview of some of the main demographic trends at work in the world today.

World Economic and Social Survey 2004: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs Summary - HTML FORMAT | PDF FORMAT
The 2004 World Economic and Social Survey provides a comprehensive review of issues related to global demographics. It looks at issues such as population aging, migration and social cohesion in countries receiving large numbers of immigrants. This file provides a brief summary of this UN survey.

"The World in 2020": Summary of presentation by Professor John Mearsheimer
On April 5, 2004, Professor John Mearsheimer made a presentation to Foreign Affairs Canada (FAC). His presentation focussed on "The World to 2020". Professor Mearsheimer is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago. He has enjoyed a distinguished career in international relations studies and has written extensively on a range of issues, particularly those related to geopolitics and international security.

"The New International Population Order": Summary of presentation by Dr. Joseph Chamie 
For most of human history, the world's population remained relatively stable, due primarily to high mortality rates.  However, in the 19th-20th centuries mortality rates began dropping significantly, first in developed countries and then through much of the developing world.  Chamie calls this drop in mortality rates the single greatest achievement of humankind.  As a result, the world has seen dramatic changes in global demographics through the 20th century.