|
|
 |
Video Interviews
Note: The opinions presented are not necessarily those of the Government of Canada.
(Video players are available here: QuickTime | Windows Media)
Transcript:
Demographic Trends
My name is Joseph Chamie. I am currently the Director of Research at the Center for Migration Studies in New York. Prior to this position, which I took up in March, I was with the United Nations as Director of the Population Division. I worked for the United Nations for approximately 28 years. I headed up the Population Division and we dealt with population trends, projections, policies and all facets of population dynamics-fertility, mortality, migration, aging, population development, and of course international migration.
As we look to the future, there are some trends that are fairly clear. One is that the world's population will be much larger than it is today. Second, most of this growth is in the developing world; in fact, six countries account for most of today's growth. India is by far the largest, with about 20% of world growth-in other words, one fifth of the world's population is in India-followed by China, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh and Indonesia.
We will also have a shift in the urban population. In a few years, more and more people will be living in urban areas. A majority of the people will be living in urban centres-this is a historic first.
Some countries will become smaller at the same time as some are becoming bigger. Russia, Japan, Italy and many other European countries will become much smaller than they are today.
Also people will live longer. More people will be living beyond 100. Families will become smaller, a trend that's a continuation from the 20th century. People are choosing to have smaller families, delaying marriage, delaying the first birth and spacing their children. Families will tend to have around two or three children. We will no longer see families of 8 or 10 or more children, as we saw in Canada and other places in the last century and the 19th century.
In addition, we are going to see increasing migration with people moving around due to demand in the developed countries for labour, especially talented labour; and also people from the developing countries looking for new opportunities in coming to Europe, North America, Australia, Japan, etc. We are going to see a great deal of movement.
Finally, in the middle of the century we may see a plateau in the world population, perhaps somewhere around 9 billion. This is very good news.
In general, I am very optimistic about the future. There could be problems in certain areas; there are always problems, especially where we are seeing rapid population growth with difficult circumstances-very fragile political systems, governments that are not representative of people, and urban areas where people are facing unrest, unemployment and in some cases civil disobedience. This is likely to accelerate in parts of Africa and parts of South Asia.
There are many aspects of urbanization. Some think that it is all negative, but this is not the case. In many countries, people moving to urban centres have freed up some of the land for forests to grow back and for farming. So by concentrating people, there are many benefits, especially to the environment. The second aspect of concentrating people is that it may be easier to recycle. When you are concentrated it is much more effective to recycle plastics and glass and other items. Third, it is easier to disseminate information-cultural, political, environmental and social information-so you can be much more cost-effective in reaching the population. There is also the benefit of having museums, cultural activities, theatres, arts and so on, so more people can participate and take advantage of those services.
Urbanization
On the other hand, urbanization presents many challenges for municipalities and governing officials. How do you provide the basic social services and products needed for these people? Housing is number one and also transportation-how do you move these people around? How do you dispose of the waste and of the belongings people no longer want? How do you provide jobs, economic opportunities? Also important, if there is a catastrophe or a calamity such as a hurricane, an earthquake or another major event occurring, how do you deal with a population which is 3 million, 10 million, 20 million in those circumstances? If they are in coastal areas-and we are seeing more movement to the coastal regions-the difficulty is how to move them out quickly when you're facing hurricanes or typhoons. If you can't move them due to the lack of roads or transportation systems, then it is much more likely that there will be higher mortality rates. In addition, the ecosystems along coastal areas are very fragile. These populations are threatening the diversity of the marine biology in a lot of coastal regions.
So we must look at all these areas and take them into account. Most of the growing cities are on bodies of water-oceans and seas. People want to be by the water for proximity to transportation, recreation, employment and so on. These are going to be major challenges for these municipalities to deal with-the large numbers of people coming in and the impact that they will have on that environment.
Population Growth
One of the things that my colleagues who are cartographers tell me is that people study maps as children and they keep those mental images as they grow up. It is interesting to see the world in terms of population. If you create a map-and we've done this at the United Nations Population Division-that is based on population size rather than land area, your whole idea of the world changes dramatically, when you see how large China and India are compared to Belgium, Luxembourg, Djibouti, Cuba, etc. The area of Canada is so large on a typical map, but it shrinks to a size of 30 million, which is a fraction of the size of India or China. Those maps would be very instructive for people to look at. Then you start to understand the geopolitical interactions with respect to population. These shifts that are occurring are occurring now, and many people are not aware of it. There is massive population growth in Pakistan. There were less than 50 million in 1950, there are over 150 million people now, and they are projected to have over 350 million people by mid-century. This means a very different type of world than what we have today.
With Russia's, Ukraine's, Japan's and so on populations declining, it is going to be a very different population. People affect political systems, cultural systems and economic systems. For instance, if most people want to hear Spanish music, the market will respond to that: CDs, entertainment, television, radio will have more Spanish music. If people want to eat Chinese food, more restaurants will provide Chinese food. If people choose to wear blue jeans rather than dress slacks, the market will respond and more people will do this. So the changing composition of the population will have economic, social and cultural impacts on those societies. It will shift the emphasis on a world scale as well.
Aging Populations in Developed Countries
In terms of the foreign policy for Canada -- as well as for the European Union, the Americans, the Japanese -- one thing that they can start to do is realize that the world is very much interconnected. What happens in a distant corner of the world can affect you at home tomorrow. One clear example is SARS. It is in everyone's interest to keep your colleagues in other countries healthy and to eradicate diseases, as we are doing with polio and we have done with smallpox and other diseases. It is in everyone's interest to cooperate. We are doing a very good job here; we have institutions dealing with global health issues.
We are trying to do the same with reproductive issues, helping people to have the number of children that they want. Canada has been instrumental in promoting the right of couples to have control over the number and spacing of their children.
With respect to immigration, Canada's role has also been very instrumental in showing that immigrants can be successfully integrated. They can become successful citizens and help the society and communities.
Canada's Role
I think that the challenge will be that you will have an aging developed world and a relatively young developing world. So there will have to be some kind of accommodation, and this may happen in a number of ways. One is immigration, although we obviously can't move everyone. In addition, there can also be economic development in the developing countries, so people will be able to find jobs in their countries and won't need to leave their home, their family and friends. If economic development is possible in those areas, then many people will work in their own country and not consider migrating, either legally or illegally. This would be beneficial for Europe, Canada, the United States and other developed countries. Therefore, developing the economies of Africa, Southeast Asia, parts of Central Asia and South America, and giving them opportunities and a better future, would do a great deal in helping these societies. In turn, it would also help our societies, which in many cases are becoming older and smaller in population.
This cooperation and interconnectedness would be very helpful. I think that Canada has come a long way towards moving that agenda forward.
I think that the view many people have of Canada is that it is a very welcoming, open society. Internationally it has a very good image. It welcomes immigrants. Many people are familiar with Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, the large cities, the community, the diversity, the principles it stands for -- human rights, openness, hard work. I think that Canada has a very pivotal role. It may not be as large as its neighbour to the south or as large as India and China -- it is a fraction of the size -- but Canada has a very big role in terms of leadership in the world. It provides an excellent bridge from the western hemisphere to the eastern hemisphere. It has a great deal of skilled and talented people working within its governments. It also has a global perspective on many of these issues.
Canada could play a very useful leadership role on population issues. Its position on immigration is stellar. It has great experience with integration, and many countries are looking to Canada as an example of what they can do in their societies.
Of course, Canada will be facing its own issues. But in the international arena I think many countries will be looking to Canada, based on its experience, for how to solve some of the problems they are facing. For example, the Europeans and some of the people in Africa and Asia may be looking to Canada regarding its immigration system; how it recruits potential immigrants; how it deals with integration; how it has dealt with the bilingual aspect of its society; how it deals with the important superpower to its south; and how it relates back to people's ancestral homes in Asia, Africa, Latin America and Europe. I think that Canada's experience could be very helpful. |
Demographic Trends