Gas Supply/Demand

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SUPPLY

Southern supplies of gas are being pushed to the limit to meet the increasing demand for natural gas. According to a recent joint Canada-U.S.-Mexico report entitled North American Natural Gas Vision, production from conventional Canadian and U.S. gas basins in recent years has been flat or declining. Additional gas supplies for North America will come from, amongst other sources, frontier gas from Alaska and northern Canada.

Proven and potential northern gas reserves are substantial:

Region	Proven Reserves	Potential Reserves
Yukon	< 1 tcf ±	20 tcf
Alaska North Slope	35 tcf*	126 tcf*
Mackenzie Delta/Beaufort Sea	9 tcf**	52 tcf**

± denotes 'trillion cubic feet'
*BP website
**Wright/Mansell

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DEMAND

There is a general consensus that the demand for natural gas in North America will continue to increase. The current estimated annual demand for gas in North America is 25 tcf, of which 22 tcf is consumed in the U.S. These numbers are expected to increase substantially over the next 20 years. According to the North American Natural Gas Vision report, the following table shows present and future natural gas demand annually.

Country	Present	2015	2025
Canada	3.2 tcf	3.5-4.2 tcf	3.2-4.6 tcf
U.S.	22 tcf	24.2 tcf	29.1-34.2 tcf

The charts below show that the combined production from both the AHPP and the MGP will represent about 7% of the total gas required in the Canada/US market in 2025.

Therefore, northern natural gas will be needed from both the Mackenzie Delta and Alaska's North Slope.

From the Yukon's perspective, our gas reserves are largely untapped, and pipelines would provide the opportunity for the Yukon to add gas to, and access gas from, both pipelines.

2025 Canada demand 4.6 tcf/yr 2025 U.S. demand 34.2 tcf/yr 2025 Canada/US total 38.8 tcf/yr

2025 AHPP supply 2.0 tcf/yr 2025 MGP supply .7 tcf/yr 2025 AHPP/MGP total 2.7 tcf/yr

 

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