Province of Manitoba » Water Stewardship » Water Information » Flood Forecasting Reports » Flood Report for Southern Manitoba---April 08, 2006
Flood Report for Southern Manitoba
April 08, 2006.
A brief report follows. Flood sheets showing conditions and forecasts for the Red River, Assiniboine River and Pembina River are attached.
-
Levels of the Red River rose 0.5 to 1.5 feet at most rural points in the 24 hour period ending this morning. The daily rises continue to decline due to increased flood storage as the river begins to widen. However rises in the Emerson area may increase in the next few days.
-
River levels in the City of Winnipeg have declined by nearly a foot since the crest of 20.35 feet Friday morning, due to declining flows on the Assiniboine River and local streams such as the La Salle River and Sturgeon Creek. The level in downtown Winnipeg this morning was 19.5 feet. However river levels in the City will begin to rise again next week.
-
A second crest of 19.5 to 20.0 feet is expected in Winnipeg on April 20 as the main crest from the U.S. arrives. This crest has the potential of being higher if adverse weather develops. There is a about a one-in-ten chance that a crest of 21 feet could occur if a rainstorm of 35 mm or more occurs next week.
-
Present weather forecasts suggest that some rain may occur Monday night to Tuesday. However it appears that rainfall amounts with this system will not require any revision in river forecasts. There is a risk of additional rainfall on Good Friday to Saturday but it is too early to tell how much rain may fall.
-
The flow in the Red River Floodway this morning was 19,900 cubic feet per second (cfs) while the flow upstream of the Floodway Inlet was 63,800 cfs.
-
Predicted crests for the rural points on the Red River remain basically unchanged although the crest at St. Adolphe has been raised by half a foot. Crests will be somewhat lower than those of 1996 if dry weather persists for the next few weeks, but could be equal to or higher than 1996 if significant rainfall develops next week. Crests are expected at Emerson April 14-15 and at the Floodway Inlet on April 20 based on favourable weather. Preparations for dike closures at Valley towns are in progress. It is anticipated that PTH 75 may be closed to traffic at Morris sometime tomorrow or early Monday and will likely be closed for about two weeks.
-
Minor flooding is expected in the Breezy Point area for the next few weeks, but otherwise flooding is not expected north of Winnipeg
-
Levels of the Assiniboine River are relatively stable in most areas with no flooding. A risk of flooding due to possible ice jams remains in the portion from Spruce Woods to Portage la Prairie. Levels continue to fall from Portage la Prairie to Winnipeg due to operation of the Portage Diversion. Flows in the Diversion were near 10,000 cfs this morning.
-
Flooding from Miniota to near Brandon now appears unlikely due to the slow melt in the area. Levels in Shellmouth Reservoir have begun to rise.
-
Minor flooding of farmlands in the Souris River valley from Coulter to Melita will continue for two to three weeks but little further rise is expected.
-
The Pembina River continues to rise at points downstream of Rock Lake. The level of Rock Lake will crest at 1338.25 feet today, which is similar to the peak in 2005. Flooding of valley lands from Rock Lake to Swan Lake is underway and will continue for the next two to three weeks. Flooding from Swan Lake to La Riviere and Windygates is expected next week with peak levels similar to those of last summer. There is a possibility that water may overflow from the Neche area toward Gretna during the next week or so. This situation will be monitored and a dike closure will occur if necessary.
-
Localized flooding continues on many smaller watersheds in the Red River Valley but is generally subsiding. Considerable flooding continues in the northern Morris River and in the headwaters of the La Salle River where minor additional rises are expected.
- Runoff is underway in the Interlake and Westlake areas but flooding is very limited due to the gradual melt in these areas. Flooding at Peguis Reserve should be of a minor nature, similar to that of 2005 unless heavy rain develops next week. Runoff is also getting underway in areas from the Riding Mountain to The Pas but river rises are gradual due to the slow melt. Flooding could still occur in these areas if a rapid melt develops. However flooding of towns and villages and at Ralls Island at The Pas is not expected unless ice jams develop.
Hydrologic Forecast Centre,
Water Branch,
Manitoba Water Stewardship