Province of Manitoba » Water Stewardship » Water Information » Flood Forecasting Reports » Flood Report for Southern Manitoba---April 09, 2006
Flood Report for Southern Manitoba
April 09, 2006.
A brief report follows. Flood sheets showing conditions and forecasts for the Red River, Assiniboine River and Pembina River are attached.
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Levels of the Red River rose 0.7 to 1.1 feet at most rural points in the 24 hour period ending this morning. The daily rises continue to decline due to increased flood storage as the river begins to widen. However rises at Emerson will accelerate in the next few days. The crest is still expected at Emerson April 14 and at Winnipeg April 20.
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The river level in downtown Winnipeg this morning was 18.78 feet, about 1.5 feet below the crest of April 7. Levels in the City will be quite steady for the next few days and will then begin to rise slowly until the next crest on April 20. A second crest of 19.5 to 20.0 feet is expected in Winnipeg on April 20 as the main crest from the U.S. arrives. This crest could be somewhat higher if rainfall this week exceeds 15 mm.
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Present weather forecasts suggest that some rain may occur tonight and again on Tuesday. At the present time weather forecasts indicate about 10 mm of rain, which would not require significant changes in river forecasts. There is a risk of additional rainfall on the Easter Weekend.
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The flow in the Red River Floodway this morning was 24,200 cubic feet per second (cfs) while the flow upstream of the Floodway Inlet was 67,400 cfs.
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Predicted crests for the Red River have been raised one foot from Emerson to St. Jean and from St. Adolphe to the Floodway Inlet. This change is due mainly to a higher forecast at Drayton, North Dakota issued by the National Weather Service. Crests from Emerson to the Floodway Inlet will be very similar to those of 1996 if there is little rainfall. Dike closures have been made at St. Adolphe, Emerson and Morris. PTH 75 is still open to traffic but will likely be shut down at Morris later today as water rises above the highway just north of the town.
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Minor flooding is expected in the Breezy Point area for the next few weeks, but otherwise flooding is not expected north of Winnipeg.
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Levels of the Assiniboine River rose abruptly in the Portage la Prairies area late yesterday as ice flows arrived from the west. The inflow to Portage Reservoir rose to 20,800 cfs of which 12,900 cfs was diverted to Lake Manitoba. Despite the higher diversions, flows on the Assiniboine River briefly increased to 7800 cfs. This will cause rises of 2.5 feet at Baie St. Paul later today and 1.5 feet in the Headingley area tomorrow but flooding is not expected unless ice jams develop. Levels in the lower Assiniboine River will decline again later this week.
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Minor flooding may occur on the Assiniboine River in the Virden area for the next few days---otherwise no flooding is expected from Shellmouth to Brandon. Water levels in the Shellmouth Reservoir are rising slowly.
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Minor flooding of farmlands in the Souris River valley from Coulter to Melita will continue for two to three weeks but little further rise is expected. Little further rise is likely with the crest expected at Melita in the next few days.
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The Pembina River continues to rise at points downstream of Rock Lake. Rock Lake has crested at 1338.25 feet, which is slightly below the June peak in 2005. Flooding of valley lands from Rock Lake to Swan Lake is underway and will continue for the next two to three weeks. Flooding from Swan Lake to La Riviere and Windygates is expected next week with peak levels similar to those of last summer. There is a possibility that water may overflow from the Neche area toward Gretna during the next week or so. This situation is being monitored and a dike closure will occur if necessary.
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Localized flooding continues on many smaller watersheds in the Red River Valley but is generally subsiding. Considerable flooding continues in the northern Morris River and in the headwaters of the La Salle River where minor additional rises are still occurring.
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Runoff is underway in the Interlake and Westlake areas but flooding is relatively minor due to the gradual melt in these areas. Flooding at Peguis Reserve should be similar to that of 2006 unless heavy rain develops this week. Runoff is also getting underway in areas from the Riding Mountain to The Pas but river rises are gradual due to the slow melt. Flooding could still occur in these areas if a rapid melt develops. Flooding of towns or individual homes is not expected unless ice jams develop.
Hydrologic Forecast Centre,
Water Branch,
Manitoba Water Stewardship