A flood sheet for the
Assiniboine River for June 9, 2006is attached. It also shows conditions and forecasts for the Red River
in Winnipeg and for Red Deer Lake.
The water level of
Shellmouth Reservoir rose very slightly over the past few days as inflows
continue to exceed outflows. The Reservoir water level 1410.7 feet or 2.2 feet
above the spillway elevation. Rainfall last night and this morning was only in
the 5 mm range but another 5 mm is likely today. The Assiniboine River is
expected to crest at Kamsack early tomorrow and reservoir levels should begin
to fall in a few days. The date at which the reservoir outflow will decline to
1300 cfs has been further delayed to June 25 based on normal weather
conditions. At 1300 cfs flooded lands just downstream of the Reservoir can
drain effectively through subsoil seepage. An updated long range forecast
indicates that with average precipitation from now on, the Reservoir level
will decline to 1408.5 feet by mid July.
Portions of the Assiniboine
valley from Miniota to Oak Lake remain too wet for farm implements to begin
working on agricultural lands. Recent rainfall has delayed the drying process.
However the River is within its channel and further flooding of valley lands
would only occur if precipitation is well above average during the next few
weeks.
The level of Red Deer Lake
was at 865.13 feet this morning. This level is still higher than the crest of
1979, which is the highest on record since the mid 1950’s. The normal summer
level of the Lake is 860.0 feet. Heavy downpours early this week have
maintained high inflows to the lake. The Red Deer River crested at Erwood on
June 1 and continues to fall slowly. The Lake should begin to decline a little
faster next week based on favourable weather.
The Community of Red Deer
Lake is continuing the clean-up under the supervision of Manitoba’s Department
of Aboriginal and Northern Affairs. High water levels and a high water table
are interfering with the work, as some homes are still surrounded by water or
are water-logged in the crawl space.
The weather forecast from
Environment Canada calls for showers in eastern Saskatchewan and southwestern
Manitoba today. Some additional showers are likely on Monday.
