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Province of Manitoba » Water Stewardship » Water Information » Flood Forecasting Reports »
Flood Report for Southern Manitoba - May 02, 2006

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Water Information

FLOOD UPDATE FOR MANITOBA

May 02, 2006.

Rain should have Little Effect on Flooding

 

Flood sheets showing present conditions and an updated forecast for: Red River, Assiniboine River and Swan River - The Pas Area are attached.

Weather

  • Showers are predicted for most areas of Manitoba for tonight and tomorrow. Areas from the Duck Mountain to The Pas may also receive snow. Precipitation is expected to be 10 mm or less in most areas but could reach 15 mm from Dauphin to the Pas. Little or no precipitation is expected from Thursday through the weekend.

  • Rainfall in the U.S. portion of the Red River basin has totalled 25-50 mm in recent days.

Red River

  • Levels of the Red River declined another foot or so at most points from Emerson to the Floodway Inlet during the 24 hour period ending this morning. A steady decline is expected to continue this week, but the rate of decline will decrease next week due to heavy rain in the United States portion.  

  • The flooded area in the Red River Valley is rapidly shrinking and the river should be back within its banks at most points within a few days. Flooding east of Letellier will continue into early next week.

  • The Red River level in downtown Winnipeg this morning was 16.87 feet, a decline of one-third of a foot since yesterday. The river is still 10.5 feet higher than the normal summer level. It will take several weeks with little precipitation before levels in the City return close to the Forks walkway level of 8.5 feet. The natural level in downtown Winnipeg today without operation of flood control works would have been 22.6 feet.

  • The flow in the Red River Floodway this morning was 13,900 cubic feet per second (cfs) while the flow upstream of the floodway inlet was 57,740 cfs. Flows into the Floodway at St. Norbert should decrease to zero by early next week unless heavy precipitation develops.

Assiniboine River

  • Flooding of valley lands from Shellmouth Dam to Grand Valley west of Brandon continues. A crest is expected in the Shellmouth area May 3, at Miniota May 8 and at Brandon May 13.  Flooding in the Assiniboine Valley should end May 17-23 depending on location, based on favourable weather conditions.  

  • The water level in Shellmouth Reservoir this morning was 1412.3 feet, which is 3.8 feet above the spillway elevation. The reservoir inflow was 5300 cfs, a decline of 700 cfs from yesterday morning. The total outflow was 5100 cfs, all of which was going over the spillway. The reservoir is now at its crest based on light winds. However a strong north wind is expected tomorrow and this will likely raise the reservoir water level to 1412.6 feet, causing outflows to rise to 5500 cfs. The outflow should decline to 5000 cfs on Thursday and continue to fall slowly after that based on favourable weather.

  • Flooding is not expected in Brandon with the possible exception of low lying areas at Curren Park. Locations from Brandon to Winnipeg will experience only minor rises with the river remaining well within its banks.  

  • The flow in the Portage Diversion this morning was 4060 cfs while the inflow to Portage Reservoir was near 9080 cfs. It is expected that flows in the Portage la Prairie area will change little in the next few weeks based on normal weather conditions.

  • Flooding of low-lying agricultural lands along the Shell River has greatly decreased and should cease by the end of this week.  

Pembina River

  • Flooding of agricultural lands will continue for several more weeks in the portion from Rock Lake to Swan Lake where the channel capacity is relatively low.

Souris River  

  • Minor flooding of low-lying agricultural lands continues from the International boundary to near Melita. Levels will continue to decline slowly unless heavy rain develops.

Carrot River

  • The Carrot River rose slightly at a few locations since yesterday, due to a change in wind direction and rain. Minor additional rises could develop if rain and snow falls as expected tomorrow.  Minor flooding has been reported in the portion from the Saskatchewan boundary to 10 miles west of The Pas with a few residents pumping water from their yards. Levels will remain high for the next 2-3 weeks. Levels within 5 miles of The Pas will continue to decline slowly.

  • Flooding of agricultural lands in the Pasquia River Valley near The Pas continues. Pumping to reduce water levels continues at maximum capacity.

Red Deer River

  • The lake level at the community of Red Deer Lake declined two inches since yesterday, partly due to a southwest wind. The lake remains at a record high level. It will be about three weeks before levels decline sufficiently for the clean-up to commence.

  • Residents of the community of Red Deer Lake remain relocated.  

 

 

Hydrologic Forecast Centre,
Water Branch,
Manitoba Water Stewardship

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