Trade News

Avian flu: Canadian businesses need a plan

July 12, 2006

Some 250 Canadians who live and work in Cernavoda, a town of 20,000 people in eastern Romania, were among the first Canadians to experience disruptions from the avian flu virus after its discovery in the Danube delta this year led to travel restrictions in the area.

A Romanian health worker sprays bird flu disinfectant on a truck transporting goods from Turkey, where there was an outbreak of bird flu cases in humans. (AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda)

While no one became ill, the episode was evidence that Canadians who do business abroad will be among the first to feel the effects of an influenza pandemic. Both government and industry officials are urging Canadian exporters to get ready now even though no one knows when or how it will hit.

What’s at stake besides the risk to human health? “In many instances, it’s the survival of the business,” says Perrin Beatty, President of the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters (CME), Canada’s largest trade and industry association.

In its recent publication, Pandemic Preparedness Plan for Canadian Business, the CME recommends businesses name a pandemic coordinator and identify essential employees and critical inputs such as raw materials and suppliers. It also recommends forecasting employee absences and training and preparing an ancillary workforce—retirees, perhaps—who can step in if needed.

Once a pandemic is declared, the CME says businesses should have guidelines in place to minimize contact between people by limiting travel, plan for telecommuting and flexible work hours, establish cough etiquette and decree mandatory sick leave should people become ill.

In addition, businesses should have plans for evacuating people working in an affected area and for dealing with employees returning from affected areas.

In a recent seminar sponsored by the Gartner Group on business continuity planning for a pandemic, 50% of the participants said their organization had appointed a person responsible for pandemic planning, and only 35% had developed a business continuity plan specifically for pandemic influenza.

It’s impossible to predict how big any disruptions could be in a pandemic, how long they might last and what their lasting effects could be. There are just too many unknowns.

But the cost to the world economy is potentially enormous: the World Bank, in its report Avian Flu - Economic Impact, notes that the SARS outbreak in East Asia resulted in a 2% drop in East Asia’s GDP in the second quarter of 2003.

“A 2% loss of global GDP during an influenza epidemic would represent about $800 billion a year. In the worst case scenario, it would have a truly devastating effect on human population and on the world economy.”

And three years after the fact, Toronto is still dealing with fallout from the SARS outbreak. Andrew Weir, Vice-President of Communications for Tourism Toronto, said some conventions slated for 2007 were cancelled three years ago and not re-booked.

The World Health Organization (WHO) is monitoring the evolution of the avian flu virus and will declare a pandemic once widespread human-to-human transmission of a new virus is confirmed.

“Once a pandemic has begun, political leaders will be under great pressure to protect their citizens,” notes the WHO in a document entitled Responding to the Avian Influenza Pandemic Threat: Recommended Strategic Actions. “Countries with pandemic response plans, ideally rehearsed in advance, will be in the best position to make decisions and take actions rapidly.”

The same applies to business

Beatty says that the key is to have a business continuity plan in place that ensures that should a pandemic strike, you have considered the potential danger points to your business, both in terms of your suppliers and your own operation.

For exporters, planning is complicated by the fact that they will have to deal with conditions in other countries, where the pandemic may strike first and where planning may be different.

Ruth Archibald, the senior coordinator for pandemic preparedness at Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada, says the difference between a flu pandemic and other disasters such as earthquakes is that a pandemic will affect human resources rather than infrastructure. That is why, in many cases, making sure people have the ability to work from home will be critical. But the response has to be planned in advance.

“Businesses need to plan for it, and travellers and people working abroad need to understand what is available and what is not available from Canadian consulates and embassies,” she says.

The World Bank notes that one lesson from the SARS episode is that a prompt and transparent public information policy could help reduce the economic costs of the epidemic.

For more information on CME’s Pandemic Preparedness Plan for Canadian Business, go to www.cme-mec.ca.