Farmers
Pool Return Outlooks
2005-06 crop year
DATE: February 23, 2006
Wheat PRO Higher, Durum And Designated Barley PROs Lower
Winnipeg -- The CWB today released its Pool Return Outlook (PRO) for the 2005-06 crop year. Wheat PROs are $2 to $3 per tonne higher versus the January PRO, with the exception of feed wheat. The durum PRO is $4 per tonne lower, with the exception of No. 5 CWAD. Compared to the January PRO, the Pool A feed barley PRO is unchanged, while the initial Pool B feed barley PRO is $115. The designated barley PRO is down $1 per tonne versus the January PRO.
| February PRO | January PRO | |||
| 2005-06 | 2005-06 | |||
| - In store Vancouver or St. Lawrence - | ||||
| Tonne | Bushel | Tonne | Bushel | |
| Wheat | ||||
| 1 CWRS 14.5 | 222.00 | 6.04 | 220.00 | 5.99 |
| 1 CWRS 13.5 | 204.00 | 5.55 | 201.00 | 5.47 |
| 1 CWRS 12.5 | 195.00 | 5.31 | 193.00 | 5.25 |
| 1 CWRS 11.5 | 189.00 | 5.14 | 186.00 | 5.06 |
| 2 CWRS 13.5 | 191.00 | 5.20 | 188.00 | 5.12 |
| 2 CWRS 11.5 | 177.00 | 4.82 | 174.00 | 4.74 |
| 3 CWRS 13.0 | 173.00 | 4.71 | 170.00 | 4.63 |
| 3 CWRS | 159.00 | 4.33 | 156.00 | 4.25 |
| 4 CWRS | 130.00 | 3.54 | 128.00 | 3.48 |
| 1 CWHWS 13.5 | 204.00 | 5.55 | 201.00 | 5.47 |
| 1 CPSR | 152.00 | 4.14 | 149.00 | 4.06 |
| 1 CPSW | 164.00 | 4.46 | 161.00 | 4.38 |
| 1 CWRW | 150.00 | 4.08 | 148.00 | 4.03 |
| 1 CWES | 171.00 | 4.65 | 168.00 | 4.57 |
| 1 CWSWS | 177.00 | 4.82 | 174.00 | 4.74 |
| CW Feed | 116.00 | 3.16 | 116.00 | 3.16 |
| Durum | ||||
| 1 CWAD 14.5 | 208.00 | 5.66 | 212.00 | 5.77 |
| 1 CWAD 13.0 | 190.00 | 5.17 | 194.00 | 5.28 |
| 1 CWAD 12.5 | 185.00 | 5.03 | 189.00 | 5.14 |
| 1 CWAD 11.5 | 176.00 | 4.79 | 180.00 | 4.90 |
| 2 CWAD 13.0 | 174.00 | 4.74 | 178.00 | 4.84 |
| 2 CWAD 11.5 | 164.00 | 4.46 | 168.00 | 4.57 |
| 3 CWAD 13.0 | 155.00 | 4.22 | 159.00 | 4.33 |
| 3 CWAD | 149.00 | 4.06 | 153.00 | 4.16 |
| 4 CWAD | 135.00 | 3.67 | 139.00 | 3.78 |
| 5 CWAD | 116.00 | 3.16 | 116.00 | 3.16 |
| Feed barley | ||||
| 1 CW - Pool A | 125.00 | 2.72 | 125.00 | 2.72 |
| 1 CW - Pool B | 115.00 | 2.50 | 115.00 | 2.50 |
| Designated barley | ||||
| SS CW Two-Row | 170.00 | 3.70 | 171.00 | 3.72 |
| Std Sel Two-Row | 165.00 | 3.59 | 166.00 | 3.61 |
| SS CW Six-Row | 162.00 | 3.53 | 163.00 | 3.55 |
| Std Sel Six-Row | 157.00 | 3.42 | 158.00 | 3.44 |
| Note: PROs are the CWB's estimate of crop year returns. Farmers who use PROs to make marketing decisions are advised that unusual weather in importing or exporting countries and other changes in market conditions could dramatically affect the price forecasts. PROs are not price guarantees and should not be confused with initial payments. PROs also do not represent CWB offer values for prospective sales transactions nor sales values for actual transactions. | ||||
PRO Commentary
2005-06 crop year
Wheat
U.S. wheat futures markets have rallied significantly over the past month, with near-record speculative positions, triggered by worsening crop conditions in the U.S. Hard Red Winter wheat region. However, competition in the mid- and low-protein milling wheat segment of the world market--including Australia, Argentina and Europe--remains very aggressive.
Durum
The global durum market remains pressured by plentiful supplies and favourable growing conditions in major importing regions. The continued strengthening of the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. dollar is also having a negative impact on projected returns. The global durum price outlook is expected to remain under pressure unless the global supply picture changes appreciably in 2006-07.
Feed barley
Pool A - Sales of this pool are essentially complete.
Pool B - While feed barley prices have shown some strength in recent weeks, export competition is limiting price increases. The outlook for global barley production in 2006-07 is also a negative factor influencing the longer-term price outlook.
Designated barley
The global malting barley market remains under pressure, given ample supplies of Australian malting barley. The strengthening Canadian dollar is also having a negative impact on returns.
| 2005-06 AVERAGE POOL RETURN OUTLOOK BY PROVINCE | |||||||||
| (Cdn dollars per tonne) | |||||||||
| February | MB | SK | AB | BC | |||||
| PRO | Deduction | Return | Deduction | Return | Deduction | Return | Deduction | Return | |
| Wheat | |||||||||
| 1 CWRS 14.5 | 222.00 | 52.96 | 169.04 | 54.96 | 167.04 | 46.32 | 175.68 | 45.08 | 176.92 |
| 1 CWRS 13.5 | 204.00 | 52.96 | 151.04 | 54.96 | 149.04 | 46.32 | 157.68 | 45.08 | 158.92 |
| 1 CWRS 12.5 | 195.00 | 52.96 | 142.04 | 54.96 | 140.04 | 46.32 | 148.68 | 45.08 | 149.92 |
| 1 CWRS 11.5 | 189.00 | 52.96 | 136.04 | 54.96 | 134.04 | 46.32 | 142.68 | 45.08 | 143.92 |
| 2 CWRS 13.5 | 191.00 | 52.96 | 138.04 | 54.96 | 136.04 | 46.32 | 144.68 | 45.08 | 145.92 |
| 2 CWRS 11.5 | 177.00 | 52.96 | 124.04 | 54.96 | 122.04 | 46.32 | 130.68 | 45.08 | 131.92 |
| 3 CWRS 13.0 | 173.00 | 52.96 | 120.04 | 54.96 | 118.04 | 46.32 | 126.68 | 45.08 | 127.92 |
| 3 CWRS | 159.00 | 52.96 | 106.04 | 54.96 | 104.04 | 46.32 | 112.68 | 45.08 | 113.92 |
| 4 CWRS | 130.00 | 52.96 | 77.04 | 54.96 | 75.04 | 46.32 | 83.68 | 45.08 | 84.92 |
| 1 CWHWS 13.5 | 204.00 | 52.96 | 151.04 | 54.96 | 149.04 | 46.32 | 157.68 | 45.08 | 158.92 |
| 1 CPSR | 152.00 | 52.96 | 99.04 | 54.96 | 97.04 | 46.32 | 105.68 | 45.08 | 106.92 |
| 1 CPSW | 164.00 | 52.96 | 111.04 | 54.96 | 109.04 | 46.32 | 117.68 | 45.08 | 118.92 |
| 1 CWRW | 150.00 | 52.96 | 97.04 | 54.96 | 95.04 | 46.32 | 103.68 | 45.08 | 104.92 |
| 1 CWES | 171.00 | 58.32 | 112.68 | 55.71 | 115.29 | 45.10 | 125.90 | 45.08 | 125.92 |
| 1 CWSWS | 177.00 | 52.96 | 124.04 | 54.96 | 122.04 | 46.32 | 130.68 | 45.08 | 131.92 |
| CW Feed | 116.00 | 52.96 | 63.04 | 54.96 | 61.04 | 46.32 | 69.68 | 45.08 | 70.92 |
| Durum | |||||||||
| 1 CWAD 14.5 | 208.00 | 40.93 | 167.07 | 49.07 | 158.93 | 46.39 | 161.61 | 45.13 | 162.87 |
| 1 CWAD 13.0 | 190.00 | 40.93 | 149.07 | 49.07 | 140.93 | 46.39 | 143.61 | 45.13 | 144.87 |
| 1 CWAD 12.5 | 185.00 | 40.93 | 144.07 | 49.07 | 135.93 | 46.39 | 138.61 | 45.13 | 139.87 |
| 1 CWAD 11.5 | 176.00 | 40.93 | 135.07 | 49.07 | 126.93 | 46.39 | 129.61 | 45.13 | 130.87 |
| 2 CWAD 13.0 | 174.00 | 40.93 | 133.07 | 49.07 | 124.93 | 46.39 | 127.61 | 45.13 | 128.87 |
| 2 CWAD 11.5 | 164.00 | 40.93 | 123.07 | 49.07 | 114.93 | 46.39 | 117.61 | 45.13 | 118.87 |
| 3 CWAD 13.0 | 155.00 | 40.93 | 114.07 | 49.07 | 105.93 | 46.39 | 108.61 | 45.13 | 109.87 |
| 3 CWAD | 149.00 | 40.93 | 108.07 | 49.07 | 99.93 | 46.39 | 102.61 | 45.13 | 103.87 |
| 4 CWAD | 135.00 | 40.93 | 94.07 | 49.07 | 85.93 | 46.39 | 88.61 | 45.13 | 89.87 |
| 5 CWAD | 116.00 | 40.93 | 75.07 | 49.07 | 66.93 | 46.39 | 69.61 | 45.13 | 70.87 |
| Feed barley | |||||||||
| 1 CW - Pool A | 125.00 | 66.09 | 58.91 | 58.80 | 66.20 | 49.22 | 75.78 | 48.88 | 76.12 |
| 1 CW - Pool B | 115.00 | 66.09 | 48.91 | 58.80 | 56.20 | 49.22 | 65.78 | 48.88 | 66.12 |
| Designated barley | |||||||||
| SS CW Two-Row | 170.00 | 51.51 | 118.49 | 59.16 | 110.84 | 52.95 | 117.05 | 51.68 | 118.32 |
| Std Sel Two-Row | 165.00 | 51.51 | 113.49 | 59.16 | 105.84 | 52.95 | 112.05 | 51.68 | 113.32 |
| SS CW Six-Row | 162.00 | 51.51 | 110.49 | 59.16 | 102.84 | 52.95 | 109.05 | 51.68 | 110.32 |
| Std Sel Six-Row | 157.00 | 51.51 | 105.49 | 59.16 | 97.84 | 52.95 | 104.05 | 51.68 | 105.32 |
|
Estimated deductions are based on tariff rates and include freight, country elevation and removal of dockage. Deductions will vary by delivery point. |
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| 2005-06 AVERAGE POOL RETURN OUTLOOK BY PROVINCE | |||||||||
| (Cdn dollars per bushel*) | |||||||||
| February | MB | SK | AB | BC | |||||
| PRO | Deduction | Return | Deduction | Return | Deduction | Return | Deduction | Return | |
| Wheat | |||||||||
| 1 CWRS 14.5 | 6.04 | 1.44 | 4.60 | 1.50 | 4.54 | 1.26 | 4.78 | 1.23 | 4.81 |
| 1 CWRS 13.5 | 5.55 | 1.44 | 4.11 | 1.50 | 4.05 | 1.26 | 4.29 | 1.23 | 4.32 |
| 1 CWRS 12.5 | 5.31 | 1.44 | 3.87 | 1.50 | 3.81 | 1.26 | 4.05 | 1.23 | 4.08 |
| 1 CWRS 11.5 | 5.14 | 1.44 | 3.70 | 1.50 | 3.64 | 1.26 | 3.88 | 1.23 | 3.91 |
| 2 CWRS 13.5 | 5.20 | 1.44 | 3.76 | 1.50 | 3.70 | 1.26 | 3.94 | 1.23 | 3.97 |
| 2 CWRS 11.5 | 4.82 | 1.44 | 3.38 | 1.50 | 3.32 | 1.26 | 3.56 | 1.23 | 3.59 |
| 3 CWRS 13.0 | 4.71 | 1.44 | 3.27 | 1.50 | 3.21 | 1.26 | 3.45 | 1.23 | 3.48 |
| 3 CWRS | 4.33 | 1.44 | 2.89 | 1.50 | 2.83 | 1.26 | 3.07 | 1.23 | 3.10 |
| 4 CWRS | 3.54 | 1.44 | 2.10 | 1.50 | 2.04 | 1.26 | 2.28 | 1.23 | 2.31 |
| 1 CWHWS 13.5 | 5.55 | 1.44 | 4.11 | 1.50 | 4.05 | 1.26 | 4.29 | 1.23 | 4.32 |
| 1 CPSR | 4.14 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.50 | 2.64 | 1.26 | 2.88 | 1.23 | 2.91 |
| 1 CPSW | 4.46 | 1.44 | 3.02 | 1.50 | 2.96 | 1.26 | 3.20 | 1.23 | 3.23 |
| 1 CWRW | 4.08 | 1.44 | 2.64 | 1.50 | 2.58 | 1.26 | 2.82 | 1.23 | 2.85 |
| 1 CWES | 4.65 | 1.59 | 3.06 | 1.52 | 3.13 | 1.23 | 3.42 | 1.23 | 3.42 |
| 1 CWSWS | 4.82 | 1.44 | 3.38 | 1.50 | 3.32 | 1.26 | 3.56 | 1.23 | 3.59 |
| CW Feed | 3.16 | 1.44 | 1.72 | 1.50 | 1.66 | 1.26 | 1.90 | 1.23 | 1.93 |
| Durum | |||||||||
| 1 CWAD 14.5 | 5.66 | 1.11 | 4.55 | 1.34 | 4.32 | 1.26 | 4.40 | 1.23 | 4.43 |
| 1 CWAD 13.0 | 5.17 | 1.11 | 4.06 | 1.34 | 3.83 | 1.26 | 3.91 | 1.23 | 3.94 |
| 1 CWAD 12.5 | 5.03 | 1.11 | 3.92 | 1.34 | 3.69 | 1.26 | 3.77 | 1.23 | 3.80 |
| 1 CWAD 11.5 | 4.79 | 1.11 | 3.68 | 1.34 | 3.45 | 1.26 | 3.53 | 1.23 | 3.56 |
| 2 CWAD 13.0 | 4.74 | 1.11 | 3.63 | 1.34 | 3.40 | 1.26 | 3.48 | 1.23 | 3.51 |
| 2 CWAD 11.5 | 4.46 | 1.11 | 3.35 | 1.34 | 3.12 | 1.26 | 3.20 | 1.23 | 3.23 |
| 3 CWAD 13.0 | 4.22 | 1.11 | 3.11 | 1.34 | 2.88 | 1.26 | 2.96 | 1.23 | 2.99 |
| 3 CWAD | 4.06 | 1.11 | 2.95 | 1.34 | 2.72 | 1.26 | 2.80 | 1.23 | 2.83 |
| 4 CWAD | 3.67 | 1.11 | 2.56 | 1.34 | 2.33 | 1.26 | 2.41 | 1.23 | 2.44 |
| 5 CWAD | 3.16 | 1.11 | 2.05 | 1.34 | 1.82 | 1.26 | 1.90 | 1.23 | 1.93 |
| Feed barley | |||||||||
| 1 CW - Pool A | 2.72 | 1.44 | 1.28 | 1.28 | 1.44 | 1.07 | 1.65 | 1.06 | 1.66 |
| 1 CW - Pool B | 2.50 | 1.44 | 1.06 | 1.28 | 1.22 | 1.07 | 1.43 | 1.06 | 1.44 |
| Designated barley | |||||||||
| SS CW Two-Row | 3.70 | 1.12 | 2.58 | 1.29 | 2.41 | 1.15 | 2.55 | 1.13 | 2.57 |
| Std Sel Two-Row | 3.59 | 1.12 | 2.47 | 1.29 | 2.30 | 1.15 | 2.44 | 1.13 | 2.46 |
| SS CW Six-Row | 3.53 | 1.12 | 2.41 | 1.29 | 2.24 | 1.15 | 2.38 | 1.13 | 2.40 |
| Std Sel Six-Row | 3.42 | 1.12 | 2.30 | 1.29 | 2.13 | 1.15 | 2.27 | 1.13 | 2.29 |
|
*Bushel figures may not be exact due to rounding conversions to two decimal points. Estimated deductions are based on tariff rates and include freight, country elevation and removal of dockage. Deductions will vary by delivery point. |
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