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Ottawa, September 29, 2004
2004-057

Minister of Finance Appoints Prominent Canadian Economist to Review the Government’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasting

Minister of Finance Ralph Goodale today announced that Tim O’Neill, Chief Economist and Executive Vice-President of BMO Financial Group, will conduct a comprehensive, independent review of the Government’s economic and fiscal forecasting.

The primary goal of the review is to better address the challenges of economic and global uncertainty by improving the preparation and accuracy of forecasts. The review will analyze the differences between economic and fiscal forecasts presented in federal budgets and economic and fiscal updates and actual outcomes over the last decade. It will also compare Canada’s approach to fiscal forecasting with that employed by selected countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

"Since we last reviewed our forecasting a decade ago, we’ve gone from chronic deficits to seven consecutive budget surpluses," said Minister Goodale. "This year the International Monetary Fund referred to Canada’s ‘considerable success’ in fiscal management, and our use of private sector economic forecasts and prudence factors. We want to build on this. We want to make sure we are equipped with the best possible projections and are benchmarked against the best in the world."

The review, announced by the Minister on September 9, is expected to be completed early next year.

Tim O’Neill joined the Bank of Montreal in 1993 as its Senior Vice-President and Deputy Chief Economist before being appointed Head of its Economics division in 1994. He is the first Canadian economist to be elected to the Board of Governors of the U.S.-based National Association for Business Economics, and served as its President in 2003. Dr. O’Neill is currently a Director of the ABC CANADA Literacy Foundation, a member of the National Statistics Council and a member of the Monetary Policy Council of the C.D. Howe Institute. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from Duke University.

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