November 22, 2004
Speech by the Governor of the Bank of Canada on behalf of the Minister
of Finance to the German-Canadian Business Club.
Berlin, Germany
It is an honour to be with you today. As you may know, this is the second
time that I have visited Berlin. In June 2003 I had the honour to speak at
group’s founding ceremony in my role as the Governor of the Bank of Canada
on the need, based on Canada’s experience, for a solid economic policy
during uncertain times. I have very fond memories of this visit and I am
pleased to see so many familiar faces today.
Since that time you have made great efforts to promote strong
German-Canadian trade relations and build a better understanding of the
economic and social conditions in both of our countries.
Today I would like to speak to you on behalf of Canada’s Minister of
Finance, Ralph Goodale, who sincerely regrets not being able to be with you
today.
In his Economic and Fiscal Update November 16, Minister Goodale described
the remarkable strength and resiliency of the Canadian economy following
numerous shocks in 2003, including SARS, a single, isolated case of
"mad cow" disease and the strong appreciation of the Canadian
dollar.
Canada weathered this period of economic slowdown, and has recovered from
relatively weak growth of two per cent in 2003. In fact, Canada saw growth
of 3.4 per cent in the first half of the year—much stronger than expected.
Private sector forecasters now expect growth of three per cent for all of
2004, and 3.2 per cent growth in 2005. In the Bank of Canada’s recent
Monetary Policy Report, the Bank projects economic growth of 2.9 per cent in
2005 and 3.2 per cent in 2006.
The origins of this success can be found in policies that began a decade
ago. In 1993 Canada had the second-worst government debt-to-GDP ratio among
G-7 countries.
It had high unemployment. It had low productivity growth. Federal debt
servicing costs were absorbing 38 cents of every dollar of government
revenue.
This situation was clearly unsustainable, and many difficult and
unpopular decisions had to be taken to clean up public sector balance sheets
during the 1990s.
In 1994 the Government launched a series of expenditure reductions which,
by 1997, had reduced program spending by almost 20 per cent.
In 1996, action was taken to introduce major reforms to our nation’s
public pension plan, to put it on a sound financial footing.
Taking these actions was very difficult. So, what was essential during
this time was clearly communicating to Canadians the steps that had to be
taken to get our fiscal house in order, and the ominous consequences of not
doing so.
Fortunately, Canadians understood that you can’t forever consume more
than you produce. They displayed the innate good sense necessary to make
short-term sacrifices for the long-term interests of their families.
As a result, Canadians transformed a vicious circle of rising deficits
and debt into a virtuous circle of balanced budgets and surpluses, and
falling debt.
Reducing, and ultimately elimating, the deficit in the 1990s helped
Canada’s international credibility and led to a reduction in the risk
premium demanded by investors. This fiscal improvement allowed for lower
interest rates, and made easier the implementation of monetary policy.
Not only did lower interest rates reduce debt-servicing costs, they also
stimulated economic growth, which brought in more revenues for the
government. The extra revenues and lower debt-servicing costs, in turn, led
to an even better fiscal position.
The results have been striking. Canada was among the G-7 leaders in
economic growth over the period from 2000 to 2003. Canada is the only G-7
country expected to post a total government sector surplus this year and
next.
As a result of this reduction in the federal debt, public debt charges as
a share of revenues have fallen from 38 per cent to just over 19 per cent—the
lowest level since the 1970s.
The federal debt-to-GDP ratio has fallen from a peak of 68 per cent to 41
per cent last year. And the Government has set the objective to reduce that
to 25 per cent within 10 years.
Business confidence is also high, and investment is increasing.
The main point here is that, in the end, tough choices pay off. While the
initial work of fiscal consolidation is certainly difficult, it pays
dividends later on.
Now that Canada is in the midst of this virtuous circle, the Government
has the means to invest in key priority areas, while at the same continuing
to meet its fiscal targets.
One of these priority areas is health care. In September, the federal
government and Canadian provinces and territories announced a 10-year, $41
billion heath accord that would focus on streamlining health care delivery,
training more health professionals, investing in better equipment, and
enhancing research and innovation.
The Government is also focused on the delivery of other key commitments
to Canadians, including:
- High-quality early childhood development;
- Predictable and long-term funding to municipalities for critical
infrastructure needs;
- Meaningful action on the disparities that impede opportunities for
Aboriginal Canadians; and
- Meeting the imperatives of national defence and national security.
As Minister Goodale said in his Economic and Fiscal Update presentation,
meeting these priorities will require ongoing fiscal discipline.
It will also require attention to improving productivity. But given the
current high ratio of employment to population, and given that Canada’s
population will soon begin to age rapidly, we will have to rely increasingly
on productivity to raise living standards in the future.
To increase productivity, we Canadians need to invest in human capital,
physical capital and innovation—the three drivers of productivity
growth.The key will be to adapt to change through policies that promote
flexibility.
That’s why Canada has invested in the skills and knowledge of our
people, and is creating a competitive environment through lower taxes that
encourage investment in physical capital and reward the efforts of
entrepreneurs.
These flexibility-enhancing policies, along with lower barriers to trade,
smart regulation and openness to international investment, are the building
blocks of Canada’s modern and prosperous economy.
Collaboration between Canada and Germany is part of this effort to
encourage international investment.
As one example, our two countries have a long-standing relationship in
science and technology. The driving force behind this relationship is the
Bilateral S&T Cooperation Agreement, signed in 1971.
And there is the very successful partnership between the National
Research Council of Canada (NRC) and the Helmholtz Association of German
National Research Centres.
The Canadian Embassy in Berlin deserves real credit for encouraging this
flourishing collaboration, and promoting technology-oriented partnerships.
Such cooperation is critical in an increasingly connected global economy.
So, too, are forward-looking initiatives such as the Trade and Investment
Enhancement Agreement between Canada and the EU, which would allow qualified
workers to move much more easily between the EU and Canada and would enhance
the ability of our financial sectors to seize investment opportunities.
Once concluded, this Agreement would present Germany, Europe and Canada
with a unique opportunity to make our economies more global, more efficient
and more prosperous.
Now let’s turn to a different issue. As you know, G-20 Finance
Ministers and Central Bank Governors met in Berlin over the weekend.
Among the themes of our discussions were the importance of promoting
flexibility in national economies, to help adjustment to changing
circumstances, and the need for reductions of global imbalances. The
importance of a sound domestic and international financial system to
facilitate the trade, savings and investment necessary to bring about a
reduction of these imbalances was also discussed.
So let me conclude these remarks this morning with a few thoughts on the
importance of international monetary arrangements to facilitate the
reduction of imbalances.
Most major industrialized countries and a large number of emerging market
countries are operating with flexible exchange rates. The notable exceptions
are China and a number of countries in Southeast Asia which, either
explicitly or implicitly, tie their currencies to the yuan, which is in turn
pegged to the U.S. dollar.
With two systems operating, not everyone is playing by the same "set
of rules," and imbalances are building. The concern is two-fold:
- First, the sense that some countries are not playing by the rules
could give rise to protectionism, with potentially very serious negative
consequences for the global trading system.
- And second, a disproportionate burden of adjustment to changing
economic circumstances is being borne by those of us with flexible
exchange regimes, including Canada and Europe.
So there is a real need, going forward, to think hard about these
international monetary arrangements.
Of course, there is much more to the resolution of global imbalances than
just exchange rate regimes. There are issues of savings and investment flows
and of promoting strong economic growth worldwide, through strong domestic
demand in each country.
But the issue of international monetary arrangements deserves critical
attention and debate, as we look out over the medium- and longer-term to the
challenges facing the global economy.
To conclude, I hope these remarks give you a good perspective on the
fiscal health of the Canadian economy and on some of the bilateral
initiatives between our two countries. As well, I hope that I have given you
some food for thought on international monetary arrangements.
Thank you for your attention. Let’s now turn to hear your views.
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