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- Fiscal Monitor 2002 -
The Fiscal Monitor
Highlights of financial results for September 2002
Highlights
September 2002: budgetary surplus of $3.1 billion
There was a budgetary surplus of $3.1 billion in September 2002,
compared to a surplus of $2.8 billion in September 2001. Large
surpluses have traditionally been recorded in the month of September,
primarily reflecting the inclusion of quarterly personal income tax
instalment payments. However, the current results are also affected by
stronger-than-expected goods and services tax (GST) revenue growth,
which has increased at a faster rate than the growth in the applicable
tax base, attributable primarily to a decline in GST refunds. Since
GST refunds traditionally closely mirror developments in gross
collections, net GST revenues, and hence the budgetary surplus, may be
somewhat overstated in the year-to-date results.
Budgetary revenues were up $1.0 billion on a year-over-year basis, with virtually all of the improvement attributable to higher GST revenues. Program spending was up $0.9 billion, while public debt charges declined $0.3 billion.
April to September 2002: budgetary surplus of $7.8 billion
The budgetary surplus is estimated at $7.8 billion for the April to September 2002 period, down $6.4 billion from the surplus of $14.2 billion reported in the same period of 2001-02. The decline in the year-over-year surplus is largely attributable to developments affecting personal and corporate income tax revenues with respect to the 2001 tax year. This deterioration reflects the decline in the stock market in 2001, which resulted in higher refunds and lower settlement payments in April and May 2002, and higher corporate income tax refunds, as corporations are applying losses experienced in 2001 to taxes paid in previous years.
It is expected that over the balance of the year, GST refunds will more closely reflect with gross collections, bringing net GST revenues more in line with the growth in the applicable GST tax base. Taking this into account, the results to date are consistent with the estimated budgetary surplus for the year as a whole of $4.0 billion presented in the October 30 Economic and Fiscal Update. |
Table 1 Summary statement of transactions
|
|
September |
April to September |
|
2001 |
2002 |
2001-02 |
2002-03 |
|
|
($ millions) |
Budgetary transactions |
|
|
|
|
Revenues |
15,117 |
16,131 |
90,253 |
85,696 |
Program spending |
-9,168 |
-10,061 |
-56,278 |
-60,261 |
|
|
Operating surplus |
5,949 |
6,070 |
33,975 |
25,435 |
Public debt charges |
-3,198 |
-2,935 |
-19,801 |
-17,665 |
|
|
Budgetary balance (deficit/surplus) |
2,751 |
3,135 |
14,174 |
7,770 |
Non-budgetary transactions |
-458 |
-1,390 |
-9,999 |
-13,588 |
Financial requirements/source (excluding
foreign exchange transactions) |
2,293 |
1,745 |
4,175 |
-5,818 |
Foreign exchange transactions |
1,652 |
1,271 |
499 |
698 |
|
|
Net financial balance |
3,945 |
3,016 |
4,674 |
-5,120 |
Net change in borrowings |
-9,449 |
-7,018 |
-14,254 |
-2.904 |
Net change in cash balances |
-5,504 |
-4,002 |
-9,580 |
-8,024 |
Cash balance at end of period |
|
|
3,595 |
3,924 |
|
Note: Positive numbers indicate a net
source of funds. Negative numbers indicate a net requirement for
funds.
Estimates for 2001-02 have been revised
from those previously published. |
September 2002: budgetary results
On a year-over-year basis, the budgetary surplus increased by $0.4 billion to $3.1 billion in September 2002. Budgetary revenues increased $1.0 billion, or 6.7 per cent, in September 2002 on a year-over-year basis, with virtually all of the increase attributable to higher GST revenues.
- Personal income tax revenues were down $0.1 billion, or 1.3 per cent,
primarily due to lower tax remittances from quarterly filers, which more
than offset higher monthly deductions from employment income, reflecting the
strong growth in employment.
- Corporate income tax revenues were up slightly, as higher instalment
payments were largely offset by higher refunds.
- Employment insurance (EI) premium revenues were up slightly, as the
impact of the growth in the number of people employed and therefore paying
premiums is offsetting the effect of the decline in premium rates (the
employee rate for 2002 is $2.20 per $100 of insurable earnings compared to
$2.25 in 2001).
- Excise taxes and duties were up strongly ($1.0 billion or 32.7 per cent). Most of this increase was due to higher GST revenues, up $0.9 billion
or 44.6 per cent. This was due to both higher gross collections and
unexpectedly lower refunds.
- Non-tax revenues were up, reflecting the timing of receipts.
On a year-over-year basis, program spending increased by $0.9 billion, or 9.7 per cent, with increases recorded in all major components.
- Transfers to persons were up 6.3 per cent. Elderly benefits increased
2.4 per cent while EI benefits were up 14.8 per cent. Both components were
affected by the timing of payments between August and September.
- Last month the year-over-year increase in elderly benefits was higher
than expected, while that for EI benefits was considerably lower than
expected.
- Transfers to other levels of government were up 4.0 per cent,
reflecting higher cash transfers under the Canada Health and Social Transfer
(CHST). This increase reflects the September 2000 agreement reached by first
ministers to increase base funding from $17.3 billion in 2001-02 to $18.6 billion in 2002-03.
- Direct program spending, consisting of total program spending less
transfers to persons and other levels of government, increased by 16.0 per cent. The monthly fluctuations in this component are due in large part to
the timing of payments.
Public debt charges, on a year-over year basis, declined $0.3 billion, or 8.2 per cent, due to a decline in the stock of interest-bearing debt and a lower average effective interest rate on that debt.
Table 2 Budgetary revenues
|
|
September |
|
April to September |
|
|
2001 |
2002 |
Change |
2001-02 |
2002-03 |
Change |
|
|
($ millions) |
(%) |
($ millions) |
(%) |
Income taxes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Personal income tax |
8,342 |
8,233 |
-1.3 |
44,017 |
39,985 |
-9.2 |
Corporate income tax |
1,541 |
1,563 |
1.4 |
12,372 |
9,136 |
-26.2 |
Other income tax revenue |
226 |
221 |
-2.2 |
1,688 |
1,652 |
-2.1 |
|
|
Total income tax |
10,109 |
10,017 |
-0.9 |
58,077 |
50,773 |
-12.6 |
Employment insurance premium revenues |
1,342 |
1,374 |
2.4 |
9,815 |
9,776 |
-0.4 |
Excise taxes and duties |
|
|
|
|
|
Goods and services tax |
1,990 |
2,877 |
44.6 |
12,098 |
14,432 |
19.3 |
Customs import duties |
243 |
280 |
15.2 |
1,447 |
1,618 |
11.8 |
Sales and excise taxes |
819 |
861 |
5.1 |
4,642 |
4,776 |
2.9 |
Air Travellers Security Charge |
|
32 |
|
|
151 |
|
|
|
Total excise taxes and duties |
3,052 |
4,050 |
32.7 |
18,187 |
20,977 |
15.3 |
|
|
Total tax revenues |
14,503 |
15,441 |
6.5 |
86,079 |
81,526 |
-5.3 |
Non-tax revenues |
614 |
690 |
12.4 |
4,174 |
4,170 |
-0.1 |
|
|
Total budgetary revenues |
15,117 |
16,131 |
6.7 |
90,253 |
85,696 |
-5.0 |
|
April to September 2002: budgetary results
Over the first six months of fiscal year 2002-03, the budgetary surplus was estimated at $7.8 billion, compared to a surplus of $14.2 billion reported in the same period of 2001-02. This decline reflects lower budgetary revenues, largely attributable to developments related to the 2001 tax year, and higher program spending. In contrast, public debt charges were lower.
Over the first six months of 2002-03, budgetary revenues were down $4.6 billion, or 5.0 per cent, on a year-over-year basis. Among the major components:
- Personal income tax collections were down $4.0 billion, or 9.2 per cent. Virtually all of this decline is attributable to lower final tax
payments and higher refunds with respect to the 2001 tax year, reflecting
weakness in the stock market and the associated lower net capital gains
realizations. Quarterly instalment payments were also lower, as these
payments are now largely based on tax liabilities for 2001. However, it
should be noted that the results for the same period in 2001 were affected
by the extraordinary stock market gains in 2000, which resulted in record
final tax settlement payments in April and May 2001. The results to date
were also dampened by the impact of the tax reduction measures announced in
the February 2000 budget and October 2000 Economic Statement and Budget
Update. Partially offsetting these impacts were higher taxes associated with
increases in employment income.
- Corporate income tax revenues were down $3.2 billion, or 26.2 per cent, primarily due to higher refunds pertaining to previous years’ taxes
paid. In addition, monthly instalment payments are lower as they are largely
based on 2001 tax liabilities, a year in which corporate profits declined.
- EI premium revenues were down marginally, primarily due to the lower
premium rates in effect for 2002.
- Excise taxes and duties increased by $2.8 billion, or 15.3 per cent,
primarily reflecting higher GST revenues, customs import duties and tobacco
excise taxes and duties, as well as the introduction of the Air Travellers
Security Charge. Revenues from energy-related taxes were lower. GST revenues
were up 19.3 per cent, compared to an increase in the applicable tax base
– consumer expenditures – of about 4 per cent. The difference in growth
rates was largely attributable to a decline in refunds, which appears to be
overstating the underlying increase in net GST revenues. Traditionally, GST
refunds move closely in line with the growth in gross GST collections. It is
expected that over the balance of the year, GST refunds will more closely
reflect the changes in gross GST collections, bringing net GST revenues more
in line with the growth in the applicable GST tax base.
- Non-tax revenues were virtually unchanged from the same period last
year.
Table 3 Budgetary expenditures
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|
September |
|
April to September |
|
|
2001
|
2002 |
Change
|
2001-02
|
2002-03
|
Change
|
|
|
($ millions) |
(%) |
($ millions) |
(%)
|
Transfer payments to: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Persons |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Elderly benefits |
2,121 |
2,171 |
2.4 |
12,501 |
13,059 |
4.5 |
Employment insurance benefits |
967 |
1,110 |
14.8 |
5,897 |
6,790 |
15.1 |
|
|
Total |
3,088 |
3,281 |
6.3 |
18,398 |
19,849 |
7.9 |
Other levels of government |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Canada Health and Social Transfer |
1,442 |
1,550 |
7.5 |
8,650 |
9,300 |
7.5 |
Fiscal transfers |
1,046 |
1,040 |
-0.6 |
6,236 |
6,220 |
-0.3 |
Alternative Payments for
Standing Programs |
-200 |
-210 |
5.0 |
-1,200 |
-1,261 |
5.1 |
|
|
Total |
2,288 |
2,380 |
4.0 |
13,686 |
14,259 |
4.2 |
Direct program spending |
|
|
|
|
|
Subsidies and other transfers |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Agriculture |
19 |
43 |
126.3 |
463 |
229 |
-50.5 |
Foreign Affairs |
108 |
97 |
-10.2 |
633 |
620 |
-2.1 |
Health |
121 |
157 |
29.8 |
591 |
717 |
21.3 |
Human Resources Development |
152 |
122 |
-19.7 |
625 |
639 |
2.2 |
Indian and Northern Development |
348 |
269 |
-22.7 |
2,129 |
2,039 |
-4.2 |
Industry and Regional Development |
12 |
67 |
458.3 |
607 |
685 |
12.9 |
Veterans Affairs |
127 |
142 |
11.8 |
747 |
841 |
12.6 |
Other |
216 |
227 |
5.1 |
1,055 |
1,054 |
-0.1 |
|
|
Total |
1,103 |
1,124 |
1.9 |
6,850 |
6,824 |
-0.4 |
Payments to Crown corporations |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Canadian Broadcasting Corporation |
80 |
91 |
13.8 |
565 |
573 |
1.4 |
Canada Mortgage and
Housing Corporation |
158 |
195 |
23.4 |
948 |
986 |
4.0 |
Other |
146 |
139 |
-4.8 |
851 |
936 |
10.0 |
|
|
Total |
384 |
425 |
10.7 |
2,364 |
2,495 |
5.5 |
Operating and capital expenditures |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Defence |
742 |
908 |
22.4 |
4,238 |
4,688 |
10.6 |
All other departmental expenditures |
1,563 |
1,943 |
24.3 |
10,742 |
12,146 |
13.1 |
|
|
Total |
2,305 |
2,851 |
23.7 |
14,980 |
16,834 |
12.4 |
Total direct program spending |
3,792 |
4,400 |
16.0 |
24,194 |
26,153 |
8.1 |
Total program expenditures |
9,168 |
10,061 |
9.7 |
56,278 |
60,261 |
7.1 |
Public debt charges |
3,198 |
2,935 |
-8.2 |
19,801 |
17,665 |
-10.8 |
|
|
Total budgetary expenditures |
12,366 |
12,996 |
5.1 |
76,079 |
77,926 |
2.4 |
Memorandum item: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total transfers |
6,479 |
6,785 |
4.7 |
38,934 |
40,932 |
5.1 |
|
Over the first six months of 2002-03, program spending increased by $4.0 billion, or 7.1 per cent, compared to the same period last year.
- Transfers to persons were up 7.9 per cent, reflecting both higher
elderly and EI benefits. The increase in elderly benefits reflects the
increase in the number of people eligible to receive benefits as well as
higher average benefits, which are adjusted quarterly to reflect changes in
consumer prices.
- Transfers to other levels of government were up 4.2 per cent,
attributable to higher cash transfers under the CHST. Entitlements under the
fiscal transfer programs were virtually unchanged, primarily reflecting the
timing of payments.
- Direct program spending increased by 8.1 per cent. Subsidies and
other transfers were virtually unchanged. Developments in this component are
largely affected by the timing of payments. Payments to Crown corporations
were up 5.5 per cent. Departmental and agency operating and capital spending
were up 12.4 per cent, in part due to the implementation of initiatives
announced in the December 2001 budget.
Public debt charges declined by $2.1 billion, or 10.8 per cent, reflecting both a reduction in the stock of interest-bearing debt and a lower average effective interest rate on that debt.
Financial requirement of $5.8 billion (excluding foreign exchange
transactions) for April to September 2002
The budgetary balance is presented on a modified accrual basis of accounting, recording government liabilities when they are incurred, regardless of when the cash payment is made. In addition, the budgetary balance includes only those activities over which the Government has legislative control.
In contrast, financial requirements/source measures the difference between cash coming in to the Government and cash going out. Financial requirements/source differs from the budgetary balance as the former includes transactions in loans, investments and advances, federal employees’ pension accounts, other specified purpose accounts, and changes in other financial assets and liabilities. These activities are included as part of non-budgetary transactions. The conversion from accrual to cash is also reflected in non-budgetary transactions.
Non-budgetary transactions resulted in a net requirement of $13.6 billion in the first six months of 2002-03, compared to a net requirement of $10.0 billion in the same period in 2001-02. Part of the higher requirement was attributable to lower transfers to the Tax Collection Accounts due to lower personal and corporate income tax revenues over the first six months of this year compared to the same period last year.
As a result, with a budgetary surplus of $7.8 billion and a net requirement of $13.6 billion from non-budgetary transactions, there was a financial requirement (excluding foreign exchange transactions) of $5.8 billion in the April to September 2002 period, compared to a financial source of $4.2 billion in the same period last year.
Table 4 The budgetary balance and financial requirements/source
|
|
September |
April to September |
|
2001 |
2002 |
2001-02 |
2002-03 |
|
|
($ millions) |
Budgetary balance (deficit/surplus) |
2,751 |
3,135 |
14,174 |
7,770 |
Loans, investments and advances |
|
|
|
|
Crown corporations |
106 |
87 |
355 |
182 |
Other |
-528 |
-565 |
-507 |
-417 |
|
|
Total |
-422 |
-478 |
-152 |
-235 |
Specified purpose accounts |
|
|
|
|
Canada Pension Plan Account |
578 |
140 |
-618 |
-679 |
Superannuation accounts |
-199 |
-830 |
-663 |
-1,118 |
Other |
-6 |
-2 |
34 |
-130 |
|
|
Total |
373 |
-692 |
-1,247 |
-1,927 |
Other transactions |
-409 |
-220 |
-8,600 |
-11,426 |
|
|
Total non-budgetary transactions |
-458 |
-1,390 |
-9,999 |
-13,588 |
Financial requirements/source (excluding
foreign exchange transactions) |
2,293 |
1,745 |
4,175 |
-5,818 |
Foreign exchange transactions |
1,652 |
1,271 |
499 |
698 |
|
|
Net financial balance |
3,945 |
3,016 |
4,674 |
-5,120 |
|
Table 5 Net financial balance and net borrowings
|
|
September |
April to September |
|
2001 |
2002 |
2001-02 |
2002-03 |
|
|
($ millions) |
Net financial balance |
3,945 |
3,016 |
4,674 |
-5,120 |
Net increase (+)/decrease (-) in borrowings |
|
|
|
|
Payable in Canadian dollars |
|
|
|
|
Marketable bonds |
-8,693 |
-7,449 |
-5,983 |
-8,317 |
Canada Savings Bonds |
-38 |
-51 |
-349 |
-530 |
Treasury bills |
400 |
550 |
-4,000 |
8,000 |
Other |
-4 |
-5 |
-9 |
-12 |
|
|
Total |
-8,335 |
-6,955 |
-10,341 |
-859 |
Payable in foreign currencies |
|
|
|
|
Marketable bonds |
0 |
0 |
-1,576 |
-1,594 |
Notes and loans |
0 |
|
-41 |
|
Canada bills |
-1,114 |
-63 |
-2,123 |
-451 |
Canada notes |
0 |
0 |
-173 |
0 |
|
|
Total |
-1,114 |
-63 |
-3,913 |
-2,045 |
|
|
Net change in borrowings |
-9,449 |
-7,018 |
-14,254 |
-2,904 |
Change in cash balance |
-5,504 |
-4,002 |
-9,580 |
-8,024 |
|
Table 6 Condensed statement of assets and liabilities
|
|
March 31, 2002 |
September 30, 2002 |
Change |
|
|
($ millions) |
Liabilities |
|
|
|
Accounts payable, accruals and allowances |
40,679 |
31,009 |
-9,670 |
Interest-bearing debt |
|
|
|
Pension and other accounts |
|
|
|
Public sector pensions |
126,921 |
125,803 |
-1,118 |
Canada Pension
Plan
(net of securities) |
6,770 |
6,091 |
-679 |
Other pension and other accounts |
7,469 |
7,339 |
-130 |
|
|
Total pension and
other accounts |
141,160 |
139,232 |
-1,928 |
Unmatured debt |
|
|
|
Payable in Canadian
dollars |
|
|
|
Marketable bonds |
293,843 |
285,526 |
-8,317 |
Treasury bills |
94,039 |
102,039 |
8,000 |
Canada Savings Bonds |
23,966 |
23,436 |
-530 |
Other |
3,391 |
3,379 |
-12 |
|
|
Subtotal |
415,239 |
414,380 |
-859 |
Payable in foreign
currencies |
27,032 |
24,987 |
-2,045 |
Total unmatured debt |
442,271 |
439,366 |
-2,905 |
Total interest-bearing debt |
583,431 |
578,599 |
-4,832 |
Total liabilities |
624,110 |
609,607 |
-14,502 |
Assets |
|
|
|
Cash and accounts receivable |
16,829 |
10,559 |
-6,270 |
Foreign exchange accounts |
52,046 |
51,348 |
-698 |
Loans, investments and advances (net of
allowances) |
18,746 |
18,981 |
235 |
|
|
Total assets |
87,621 |
80,889 |
-6,733 |
|
|
Accumulated deficit (net public debt) |
536,489 |
528,718 |
-7,770 |
|
Net financial requirement of $5.1 billion for April to September 2002
Foreign exchange transactions represent all transactions in international reserves held in the Exchange Fund Account (EFA). The objectives of the EFA are to provide general foreign currency liquidity for the Government and promote orderly conditions in the foreign exchange market. The EFA contains foreign currency investments, the Government’s gold holdings and assets related to Canada’s commitment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Increases in the level of the reserves through borrowings, contributions to the IMF, and/or selling of Canadian dollars represent a requirement. Conversely, decreases in the level of reserves represent a source of funds. Taking all of these factors into account, there was a net source of $0.7 billion in the first six months of 2002-03, compared to a net source of $0.5 billion in the same period in 2001-02.
With a budgetary surplus of $7.8 billion, a net requirement of $13.6 billion from non-budgetary transactions and a net source of $0.7 billion from foreign exchange transactions, there was a net financial requirement of $5.1 billion in the April to September 2002 period, compared to a net source of $4.7 billion in the same period last year.
Net borrowings down $2.9 billion for April to September 2002
To finance this net financial requirement of $5.1 billion, the Government reduced its cash balances by $8.0 billion to $3.9 billion. This also allowed it to reduce its holding of market debt by $2.9 billion to the end of September 2002. The level of cash balances varies from month to month based on a number of factors including periodic large debt maturities, which can be quite volatile on a monthly basis.
|