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The Fiscal Balance in Canada: The Facts
March 2004
The argument by provincial governments that the money is in Ottawa while the needs are in the provinces does not withstand the test of facts, or take into account the reality that sound fiscal management by the federal government through balanced budgets or better benefits all Canadians.
The fiscal balance debate is not new. In the early 1980s there was considerable debate as to whether an imbalance in favour of the provinces existed. Eventually, the claims were dismissed, largely due to provincial arguments against the existence of a fiscal imbalance. To make this point, Ontario’s 1982 budget quoted a study by the Economic Council of Canada, which stated:
"In order to say that there is a "structural" economic problem relating to fiscal imbalance, it must be argued that one of the levels of government does not have access to the revenues required to fulfill its obligations…The mere existence of deficits at one level of government does not indicate the existence of such a structural imbalance nor does it mean that such deficits have to be rectified at the expense of another level of government."
Therefore, the key issue in this debate is whether both orders of government have access to revenue sources so that they can fulfill their responsibilities. A study by Norrie and Wilson[1] makes the point that the distribution of taxation powers in Canada is unique – both orders of government do in fact have full access to all current major revenue sources, and therefore the traditional concept of a vertical fiscal imbalance does not apply to Canada.
Is the money in Ottawa?
Fact: Both orders of government have access to the same major revenue bases.
- Both the federal and provincial governments have access to all the major
tax bases – personal and corporate income taxes, sales taxes and payroll
taxes – and both can set their own tax rates (see Table 1).
Table 1 Access to diversified revenue sources
|
|
Federal |
Provincial |
|
Common revenue
sources |
|
|
Personal income taxes |
x |
x |
Corporate income
taxes |
x |
x |
Sales taxes |
x |
x |
Payroll taxes |
x |
x |
Unique provincial
revenue sources |
|
|
Resource royalties
within provincial jurisdiction |
|
x |
Gaming, liquor
profits |
|
x |
Property taxes |
|
x |
Unique federal
revenue sources |
|
|
Customs import duties |
x |
|
Taxes on
non-residents |
x |
|
|
- Provinces also have access to certain tax bases, some of which are
growing rapidly.
- Compared to other federations, Canadian provinces have freedom to set
their tax policies (see Chart 1). Even provinces that have shared
administrative arrangements for tax collection with the federal
government have had considerable flexibility to customize their personal
income tax systems to their own policy objectives. The
tax-on-income arrangement, introduced in 2001, added even more
flexibility in terms of tax rates, credits and incentives.
Chart 1 Sub-national governments’ control over their tax bases and tax rates (% of their tax revenue)
Sources: Department of Finance calculations; Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Taxing Powers of State and Local Government (Paris: OECD, 1999).
- Total provincial revenues – that is, their own-source revenues plus
federal transfers – have substantially exceeded federal revenues for
more than two decades (see Chart 2).
Chart 2 Federal and provincial revenues[2]
- In 2002-03 total provincial revenues amounted to $201 billion,
including $34 billion in federal cash transfers, compared to about
$178 billion in total federal revenues, or $143 billion net of cash
transfers to the provinces (see Chart 3).
Chart 3 Federal and provincial revenues, 2002-03
- Total provincial revenues are expected to continue to exceed federal
revenues for the foreseeable future.
- As a result of the $100-billion Five-Year Tax Reduction Plan announced
in 2000, federal revenues are expected to grow at an average annual rate
of only 0.5 per cent between 2000-01 and 2004-05. Federal tax cuts
amount to about $25 billion in 2003-04 alone.
- In addition, federal cash transfers to the provinces (which they can
spend on their own priorities such as health and education) are expected
to grow at an average annual rate of 6.2 per cent between 2000-01
and 2004-05, which is more than ten times faster than the expected
growth in federal revenues (see Chart 4.1). This reflects recent federal
investments mainly under the new Accord on Health Care Renewal. The
expected growth in major federal cash transfers until 2008-09 is a
testimony to the co-operation between the federal government and the
provinces (see Chart 4.2).
Chart 4.1 Expected average annual growth 2000-01 to 2004-05
Chart 4.2 Major federal cash transfers
Fact: The federal government’s larger share of personal income tax revenues does not give it an advantage over provincial governments.
- Although the federal share of personal income tax collections is larger
than that of all the provinces, it did not lead in the past to faster
overall revenue growth. In fact, over the last 20 years, provincial
own-source and federal revenues have, on average, grown at a broadly
similar rate (see Chart 5).
Chart 5 Average annual own-source revenue growth over the 1980-81 to 2002-03 period
- More than three-quarters of the $100-billion in federal tax reductions
is concentrated in personal income taxes.
- This includes the restoration of full indexation of the personal
income tax system, reductions in tax rates, increases in income tax
thresholds and increases in the Canada Child Tax Benefit.
- Full indexation will permanently reduce the growth of federal personal
income tax in the future.
- The federal government will face continuing pressure to reduce taxes,
particularly in light of the tax cuts recently introduced in the United
States. This is particularly a federal pressure because, for fairness
and equity considerations, only the federal government can provide
countrywide income tax relief that improves the standard of living for
all Canadians, and not just those in more affluent provinces. For
example, it is estimated that provincial governments in Ontario, Alberta
and British Columbia reduced their taxes by about 30 per cent over the
last seven years, more than one-and-a-half times the tax reductions seen
in other provinces.
Are the needs mainly in the provinces?
Fact: The federal government faces a much greater fiscal constraint than the provinces as a result of its debt burden.
- Debt charges consumed about 21 cents of every federal revenue
dollar in 2002-03 compared to an average of about 11 cents for
the provinces (see Chart 6). Thus, the federal government paid
$37 billion in interest costs compared to about $22 billion for
all the provinces combined.
Chart 6 Federal and provincial debt charges
- The federal government’s higher debt burden reduces its fiscal room
to manoeuvre when managing its own responsibilities and pressures, and
makes it more vulnerable to volatility in global financial markets.
Fact: Both orders of government have key areas of responsibility and are facing growing demands on their resources.
- While the provinces face spending pressures in the areas of health care
and education, which represent a large share of provincial spending, the
federal government has made significant reinvestments in both health and
education through the CHST.
- In fact, since the federal government balanced its budget, about
two-thirds of all new federal spending initiatives have been related to
health care and education, including research and development and skills
upgrading. This includes the new funding under the 2003 Accord on
Health Care Renewal. With the $2-billion supplemental health care
transfer in 2004, federal support for health care under the 2003 Accord
will increase by $36.8 billion between 2002-03 and 2007-08.
- The provinces have flexibility to use federal transfers where they
deem their priority pressures to be. Provincial governments are
accountable to their citizens, not to the federal government, for how
they use these funds.
- The federal government also faces growing spending pressures in other
areas such as: elderly benefits, strengthening Aboriginal communities,
research and development, skills and learning, and security.
- As well, the federal government is committed to work with the
provinces on a new deal for Canada’s municipalities. In pushing this
agenda forth and in acting in its own jurisdiction, the Government
recently announced a full GST rebate for Canadian municipalities.
- The federal government also responds to national emergencies and
natural disasters. For example, close to $1 billion was provided in
2003-04 to address emergency situations caused by mad cow disease and
SARS.
Conclusion
There is no evidence of a vertical fiscal imbalance in Canada.
- Provinces in Canada have the constitutional powers and independence to
make their own choices about taxes, spending and debt, just like the
federal government. Provincial governments have access to all the major
tax bases and they are free to set their own priorities.
- The fact that virtually all provinces have chosen to reduce taxes in
recent years implies that they believe that they have sufficient
revenues to manage their spending pressures. Forgone revenues due to
provincial tax initiatives that began with their 1995 budgets
amounted to $21 billion in 2003-04 alone.
- Sound fiscal management by the federal government through balanced
budgets or better benefits all Canadians.
- Improving federal finances has helped maintain lower interest rates
across the country. This benefits provincial governments, businesses
and families.
- Only the federal government can stand behind nationwide programs
and standards.
Annex
Response to the Update of the Conference Board of Canada Report on Fiscal Prospects for the Federal and Provincial/Territorial Governments
At the request of provincial and territorial governments, the Conference Board of Canada produced a report in February 2004[3] that provides an update of a similar report published in 2002[4]. Both studies show fiscal projections up to 2019-20 for the federal government and the aggregate of the provinces and territories.
The updated study reaches similar conclusions to the original report: it shows large and growing federal surpluses up to 2019-20 while the provincial-territorial sector records deficits. On this basis, the new report states that "the balance between revenue and spending is much more uneven for the provinces and territories than it is for the federal government under the current fiscal regimes". The Conference Board’s 2002 study concluded that a vertical fiscal imbalance exists in Canada.
Neither the 2002 nor the 2004 Conference Board report proves the existence of a fiscal imbalance. A closer examination of the facts suggests that the results must be interpreted with caution.
Access to revenues: the key factor in assessing vertical fiscal imbalance
- Although long-term fiscal projections can be useful in some contexts,
they are not relevant in assessing the existence of a vertical fiscal
imbalance because this is determined by assessing access to the revenue
sources required to meet expenditure needs.
- The fact that both orders of government have access to all the main
revenue sources required to fulfill their obligations implies that a
vertical fiscal imbalance cannot exist in Canada, regardless of
what surpluses or deficits are projected over the long term.
- A study by Norrie and Wilson[5]
argues that both orders of government have full access to all major
revenue sources and therefore the traditional concept of vertical fiscal
imbalance does not apply to Canada.
Long-term projections are extremely sensitive to the assumptions
- Long-term fiscal projections are notoriously sensitive to the choice of
assumptions. A small change in an assumption can alter revenue or spending
projections by billions of dollars over a 17-year horizon.
- For example, if federal program spending were to grow 1 per
cent faster each year than assumed by the Conference Board, the
federal government would record a surplus of about $10 billion in
2019-20, rather than the $78-billion surplus projected in the latest
Conference Board report.
- On the other hand, if total federal revenues were to grow 1 per
cent slower each year, the federal government would record a deficit
of about $3 billion in 2019-20.
- The updated report shows the same average annual growth rate of
4 per cent for federal and provincial revenues between 2003-04 and
2019-20. The growth rates for program spending are also similar.
- Because the federal government is starting from a surplus position
while the provinces are starting from a deficit position, this results
in increasing federal surpluses and increasing provincial deficits.
The federal government will not apply 100 per cent of its future surpluses to debt reduction
- The Conference Board's 2004 report makes the key assumption that the
federal government will not introduce any new tax cuts or spending
measures for the next 17 years, with all surpluses being earmarked
exclusively for debt reduction. This assumption tends to inflate federal
surpluses.
- It is simply unrealistic to assume the absence of any new federal
initiatives for about two decades. For instance, federal tax cuts and
spending initiatives implemented since the 1997 budget amounted to
about $60 billion in 2003-04.
- If none of these measures had been introduced and if all resulting
budgetary surpluses had been applied to debt reduction, the federal
government would have a surplus of about $77 billion in
2003-04.
- This unrealistic result illustrates the purely hypothetical nature of
the Conference Board projections.
1 Kenneth Norrie and L.S. Wilson, "On Re-Balancing Canadian Fiscal Federalism," Toward a New Mission Statement for Canadian Fiscal Federalism, ed. H. Lazar, Institute of Intergovernmental Relations (Montréal and Kingston: McGill-Queen’s University Press, 2000), pp. 79-98. [Return]
2 Throughout this document, chart data for the federal government come from the Public Accounts and from the November 2003 Economic and Fiscal Update. Data for the provinces come from provincial Public Accounts and from their latest budget updates. [Return]
3 Fiscal Prospects for the Federal and Provincial/Territorial Governments, Conference Board of Canada, February 2004. [Return]
4 Fiscal Prospects for the Federal and Provincial/Territorial Governments. Conference Board of Canada, July 2002. The report can be accessed at http://www.conferenceboard.ca/pdfs/fiscalimbalance.pdf. [Return]
5 Kenneth Norrie and L.S. Wilson, "On Re-Balancing Canadian Fiscal Federalism," Toward a New Mission Statement for Canadian Fiscal Federalism, ed. H. Lazar, Institute of Intergovernmental Relations (Montréal and Kingston: McGill-Queen’s University Press, 2000), pp. 79-98. [Return] |