Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey: data
Spring 2006
Note: Survey respondents do not necessarily answer all
questions. Totals will therefore not always equal 100%.
| Chart 1 |
| FUTURE SALES GROWTH |
| Over the next 12 months, your firm's year-to-year increase
in sales volume is expected to be: |
| Date |
Greater rate (%) |
Lesser rate (%) |
Balance of opinion |
| Q3 1998 |
26.80 |
44.33 |
-17.53 |
| Q4 1998 |
32.25 |
33.33 |
-1.08 |
| Q1 1999 |
49.47 |
24.21 |
25.26 |
| Q2 1999 |
43.23 |
29.72 |
13.51 |
| Q3 1999 |
40.78 |
34.95 |
5.83 |
| Q4 1999 |
58.33 |
15.62 |
42.71 |
| Q1 2000 |
51.48 |
20.79 |
30.69 |
| Q2 2000 |
28.78 |
34.84 |
-6.06 |
| Q3 2000 |
35.86 |
29.34 |
6.52 |
| Q4 2000 |
35.79 |
33.68 |
2.11 |
| Q1 2001 |
40.62 |
41.66 |
-1.04 |
| Q2 2001 |
34.37 |
29.68 |
4.69 |
| Q3 2001 |
31.31 |
37.37 |
-6.06 |
| Q4 2001 |
36.17 |
39.36 |
-3.19 |
| Q1 2002 |
56.56 |
27.27 |
29.29 |
| Q2 2002 |
48.93 |
19.14 |
29.79 |
| Q3 2002 |
43.87 |
32.65 |
11.22 |
| Q4 2002 |
45.00 |
28.00 |
17.00 |
| Q1 2003 |
47.00 |
27.00 |
20.00 |
| Q2 2003 |
43.43 |
29.29 |
14.14 |
| Q3 2003 |
47.52 |
25.74 |
21.78 |
| Q4 2003 |
54.00 |
22.00 |
32.00 |
| Q1 2004 |
46.07 |
28.42 |
17.65 |
| Q2 2004 |
45.63 |
21.36 |
24.27 |
| Q3 2004 |
47.52 |
25.74 |
21.78 |
| Q4 2004 |
41.58 |
33.66 |
7.92 |
| Q1 2005 |
44.00 |
24.00 |
20.00 |
| Q2 2005 |
45.00 |
25.00 |
20.00 |
| Q3 2005 |
38.61 |
24.75 |
13.86 |
| Q4 2005 |
40.60 |
24.80 |
15.84 |
| Q1 2006 |
35.60 |
32.70 |
2.97 |
| Chart 2 |
| INVESTMENT IN MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT |
| Over the next 12 months, your firm's investment spending on
M&E is expected to be: |
| Date |
Higher (%) |
Lower (%) |
Balance of opinion |
| Q3 1998 |
32.98 |
35.04 |
-2.06 |
| Q4 1998 |
45.26 |
29.47 |
15.79 |
| Q1 1999 |
33.68 |
36.84 |
-3.16 |
| Q2 1999 |
34.00 |
16.00 |
18.00 |
| Q3 1999 |
29.12 |
26.21 |
2.91 |
| Q4 1999 |
50.00 |
21.87 |
28.13 |
| Q1 2000 |
37.62 |
26.73 |
10.89 |
| Q2 2000 |
29.78 |
21.78 |
8.00 |
| Q3 2000 |
50.00 |
24.19 |
25.81 |
| Q4 2000 |
42.10 |
29.47 |
12.63 |
| Q1 2001 |
35.41 |
22.91 |
12.50 |
| Q2 2001 |
32.30 |
35.38 |
-3.08 |
| Q3 2001 |
29.29 |
35.35 |
-6.06 |
| Q4 2001 |
22.34 |
37.23 |
-14.89 |
| Q1 2002 |
24.24 |
31.31 |
-7.07 |
| Q2 2002 |
32.63 |
18.95 |
13.68 |
| Q3 2002 |
41.05 |
18.94 |
22.11 |
| Q4 2002 |
38.00 |
24.00 |
14.00 |
| Q1 2003 |
30.00 |
28.00 |
2.00 |
| Q2 2003 |
24.24 |
27.27 |
-3.03 |
| Q3 2003 |
28.71 |
26.73 |
1.98 |
| Q4 2003 |
31.00 |
20.00 |
11.00 |
| Q1 2004 |
33.33 |
26.47 |
6.86 |
| Q2 2004 |
40.78 |
18.45 |
22.33 |
| Q3 2004 |
39.60 |
22.77 |
16.83 |
| Q4 2004 |
44.55 |
22.77 |
21.78 |
| Q1 2005 |
39.00 |
22.00 |
17.00 |
| Q2 2005 |
44.00 |
23.00 |
21.00 |
| Q3 2005 |
38.61 |
18.81 |
19.80 |
| Q4 2005 |
43.00 |
24.00 |
19.00 |
| Q1 2006 |
50.50 |
15.80 |
34.65 |
| Chart 3 |
| FUTURE EMPLOYMENT LEVEL |
| Over the next 12 months, your firm's level of employment is
expected to be: |
| Date |
Higher (%) |
Lower (%) |
Balance of opinion |
| Q3 1998 |
28.00 |
28.00 |
0.00 |
| Q4 1998 |
34.74 |
20.00 |
14.74 |
| Q1 1999 |
37.89 |
20.00 |
17.89 |
| Q2 1999 |
48.65 |
13.51 |
35.14 |
| Q3 1999 |
38.46 |
15.38 |
23.08 |
| Q4 1999 |
50.00 |
12.50 |
37.50 |
| Q1 2000 |
45.54 |
12.87 |
32.67 |
| Q2 2000 |
51.51 |
15.15 |
36.36 |
| Q3 2000 |
47.31 |
11.83 |
35.48 |
| Q4 2000 |
44.21 |
16.84 |
27.37 |
| Q1 2001 |
42.71 |
12.50 |
30.21 |
| Q2 2001 |
33.84 |
16.92 |
16.92 |
| Q3 2001 |
31.31 |
20.20 |
11.11 |
| Q4 2001 |
27.65 |
26.59 |
1.06 |
| Q1 2002 |
44.44 |
18.18 |
26.26 |
| Q2 2002 |
48.41 |
10.52 |
37.89 |
| Q3 2002 |
46.93 |
16.32 |
30.61 |
| Q4 2002 |
40.00 |
18.00 |
22.00 |
| Q1 2003 |
47.00 |
13.00 |
34.00 |
| Q2 2003 |
33.33 |
15.15 |
18.18 |
| Q3 2003 |
42.57 |
9.90 |
32.67 |
| Q4 2003 |
41.00 |
14.00 |
27.00 |
| Q1 2004 |
45.09 |
13.72 |
31.37 |
| Q2 2004 |
46.60 |
14.56 |
32.04 |
| Q3 2004 |
43.56 |
10.89 |
32.67 |
| Q4 2004 |
49.50 |
11.88 |
37.62 |
| Q1 2005 |
50.00 |
11.00 |
39.00 |
| Q2 2005 |
46.00 |
14.00 |
32.00 |
| Q3 2005 |
59.40 |
8.90 |
50.50 |
| Q4 2005 |
58.40 |
8.90 |
49.50 |
| Q1 2006 |
50.50 |
7.90 |
42.57 |
| Chart 4 |
| ABILITY TO MEET DEMAND |
| Rate the current ability of your firm to meet an unexpected
increase in demand: |
| Date |
Some difficulty
(% of firms) |
Significant difficulty
(% of firms) |
| Q3 1999 |
38.00 |
11.00 |
| Q4 1999 |
37.00 |
10.00 |
| Q1 2000 |
41.00 |
13.00 |
| Q2 2000 |
52.00 |
6.00 |
| Q3 2000 |
43.00 |
13.00 |
| Q4 2000 |
35.00 |
8.00 |
| Q1 2001 |
37.00 |
12.00 |
| Q2 2001 |
35.00 |
0.00 |
| Q3 2001 |
19.00 |
4.00 |
| Q4 2001 |
34.00 |
1.00 |
| Q1 2002 |
26.00 |
4.00 |
| Q2 2002 |
39.00 |
4.00 |
| Q3 2002 |
35.00 |
6.00 |
| Q4 2002 |
33.00 |
4.00 |
| Q1 2003 |
35.00 |
6.00 |
| Q2 2003 |
34.00 |
7.00 |
| Q3 2003 |
29.00 |
6.00 |
| Q4 2003 |
32.00 |
6.00 |
| Q1 2004 |
27.00 |
4.00 |
| Q2 2004 |
38.00 |
8.00 |
| Q3 2004 |
33.00 |
10.00 |
| Q4 2004 |
38.00 |
7.00 |
| Q1 2005 |
26.00 |
11.00 |
| Q2 2005 |
34.00 |
9.00 |
| Q3 2005 |
35.60 |
9.90 |
| Q4 2005 |
34.70 |
14.90 |
| Q1 2006 |
32.70 |
11.90 |
| Chart 5 |
| LABOR SHORTAGES |
| Does your firm face any shortages of labour that restrict
your ability to meet demand: |
| Date |
Yes
(% of firms) |
| Q3 1998 |
26.00 |
| Q4 1998 |
40.00 |
| Q1 1999 |
31.00 |
| Q2 1999 |
68.00 |
| Q3 1999 |
36.00 |
| Q4 1999 |
44.00 |
| Q1 2000 |
43.00 |
| Q2 2000 |
65.00 |
| Q3 2000 |
56.00 |
| Q4 2000 |
59.00 |
| Q1 2001 |
51.00 |
| Q2 2001 |
48.00 |
| Q3 2001 |
35.00 |
| Q4 2001 |
35.00 |
| Q1 2002 |
31.00 |
| Q2 2002 |
39.00 |
| Q3 2002 |
38.00 |
| Q4 2002 |
40.00 |
| Q1 2003 |
36.00 |
| Q2 2003 |
31.00 |
| Q3 2003 |
34.00 |
| Q4 2003 |
30.00 |
| Q1 2004 |
35.00 |
| Q2 2004 |
37.00 |
| Q3 2004 |
44.00 |
| Q4 2004 |
36.00 |
| Q1 2005 |
33.00 |
| Q2 2005 |
36.00 |
| Q3 2005 |
51.00 |
| Q4 2005 |
49.00 |
| Q1 2006 |
44.00 |
| Chart 6 |
| INPUT PRICE INFLATION |
| Over the next 12 months, are prices of products/services
purchased expected to increase at a greater, lesser, or the same rate as
over the past year: |
| Date |
Increase at a greater rate (%) |
Increase at a lesser rate (%) |
Balance of opinion |
| Q3 1998 |
21.65 |
22.68 |
-1.03 |
| Q4 1998 |
18.94 |
21.05 |
-2.11 |
| Q1 1999 |
15.95 |
29.78 |
-13.83 |
| Q2 1999 |
35.71 |
12.85 |
22.86 |
| Q3 1999 |
21.56 |
24.50 |
-2.94 |
| Q4 1999 |
24.21 |
17.89 |
6.32 |
| Q1 2000 |
25.74 |
16.83 |
8.91 |
| Q2 2000 |
39.39 |
13.63 |
25.76 |
| Q3 2000 |
27.96 |
20.43 |
7.53 |
| Q4 2000 |
26.32 |
20.00 |
6.32 |
| Q1 2001 |
19.79 |
30.21 |
-10.42 |
| Q2 2001 |
23.07 |
27.69 |
-4.62 |
| Q3 2001 |
9.09 |
38.38 |
-29.29 |
| Q4 2001 |
11.70 |
44.68 |
-32.98 |
| Q1 2002 |
21.21 |
29.29 |
-8.08 |
| Q2 2002 |
25.26 |
16.84 |
8.42 |
| Q3 2002 |
29.59 |
12.24 |
17.35 |
| Q4 2002 |
33.00 |
20.00 |
13.00 |
| Q1 2003 |
31.00 |
25.00 |
6.00 |
| Q2 2003 |
23.23 |
34.34 |
-11.11 |
| Q3 2003 |
16.83 |
33.66 |
-16.83 |
| Q4 2003 |
19.00 |
23.00 |
-4.00 |
| Q1 2004 |
21.57 |
32.35 |
-10.78 |
| Q2 2004 |
42.72 |
22.33 |
20.39 |
| Q3 2004 |
31.68 |
32.67 |
-0.99 |
| Q4 2004 |
16.83 |
39.60 |
-22.77 |
| Q1 2005 |
26.00 |
25.00 |
1.00 |
| Q2 2005 |
27.00 |
27.00 |
0.00 |
| Q3 2005 |
42.57 |
14.85 |
27.72 |
| Q4 2005 |
33.70 |
16.80 |
16.83 |
| Q1 2006 |
25.70 |
28.70 |
-2.97 |
| Chart 7 |
| OUTPUT PRICE INFLATION |
| Over the next 12 months, are prices of products/services
sold expected to increase at a greater, lesser, or the same rate as over
the past year: |
| Date |
Increase at a greater rate (%) |
Increase at a lesser rate (%) |
Balance of opinion |
| Q3 1998 |
13.54 |
40.62 |
-27.08 |
| Q4 1998 |
20.21 |
34.04 |
-13.83 |
| Q1 1999 |
21.50 |
30.10 |
-8.60 |
| Q2 1999 |
27.02 |
17.56 |
9.46 |
| Q3 1999 |
29.29 |
22.22 |
7.07 |
| Q4 1999 |
23.15 |
24.20 |
-1.05 |
| Q1 2000 |
28.71 |
13.86 |
14.85 |
| Q2 2000 |
25.76 |
21.21 |
4.55 |
| Q3 2000 |
27.95 |
21.50 |
6.45 |
| Q4 2000 |
28.42 |
21.05 |
7.37 |
| Q1 2001 |
23.95 |
29.16 |
-5.21 |
| Q2 2001 |
23.08 |
40.00 |
-16.92 |
| Q3 2001 |
25.25 |
30.30 |
-5.05 |
| Q4 2001 |
14.88 |
41.48 |
-26.60 |
| Q1 2002 |
24.24 |
33.33 |
-9.09 |
| Q2 2002 |
33.68 |
20.00 |
13.68 |
| Q3 2002 |
31.62 |
19.38 |
12.24 |
| Q4 2002 |
28.30 |
30.30 |
-2.00 |
| Q1 2003 |
25.00 |
26.00 |
-1.00 |
| Q2 2003 |
26.26 |
33.33 |
-7.07 |
| Q3 2003 |
25.74 |
22.77 |
2.97 |
| Q4 2003 |
16.00 |
35.00 |
-19.00 |
| Q1 2004 |
29.41 |
33.33 |
-3.92 |
| Q2 2004 |
29.13 |
33.01 |
-3.88 |
| Q3 2004 |
31.68 |
21.78 |
9.90 |
| Q4 2004 |
20.79 |
35.64 |
-14.85 |
| Q1 2005 |
31.00 |
23.00 |
8.00 |
| Q2 2005 |
23.00 |
25.00 |
-2.00 |
| Q3 2005 |
33.66 |
22.77 |
10.89 |
| Q4 2005 |
28.70 |
25.70 |
2.97 |
| Q1 2006 |
30.70 |
25.70 |
4.95 |
| Chart 8 |
| INFLATION EXPECTATIONS |
| Over the next two years, what do you expect the annual rate
of inflation to be, based on the consumer price index: |
| Date |
Below 1 per cent
(% of firms) |
1 to 2 per cent
(% of firms) |
2 to 3 per cent
(% of firms) |
Above per cent
(% of firms) |
| Q2 2001 |
0.00 |
25.00 |
61.00 |
8.00 |
| Q3 2001 |
1.00 |
34.00 |
55.00 |
2.00 |
| Q4 2001 |
5.00 |
59.00 |
31.00 |
2.00 |
| Q1 2002 |
2.00 |
62.00 |
33.00 |
2.00 |
| Q2 2002 |
2.00 |
28.00 |
60.00 |
4.00 |
| Q3 2002 |
1.00 |
32.00 |
61.00 |
5.00 |
| Q4 2002 |
0.00 |
27.00 |
63.00 |
9.00 |
| Q1 2003 |
1.00 |
15.00 |
57.00 |
26.00 |
| Q2 2003 |
0.00 |
39.00 |
55.00 |
5.00 |
| Q3 2003 |
1.00 |
43.00 |
52.00 |
4.00 |
| Q4 2003 |
0.00 |
40.00 |
54.00 |
3.00 |
| Q1 2004 |
0.00 |
45.00 |
47.00 |
5.00 |
| Q2 2004 |
0.00 |
22.00 |
55.00 |
17.00 |
| Q3 2004 |
0.00 |
33.00 |
54.00 |
9.00 |
| Q4 2004 |
0.00 |
29.00 |
56.00 |
12.00 |
| Q1 2005 |
0.00 |
33.00 |
60.00 |
4.00 |
| Q2 2005 |
1.00 |
18.00 |
68.00 |
7.00 |
| Q3 2005 |
0.00 |
9.90 |
60.40 |
26.70 |
| Q4 2005 |
0.00 |
13.90 |
61.40 |
18.80 |
| Q1 2006 |
2.00 |
14.80 |
63.40 |
17.80 |